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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-204.png?12

Probably not but the high is moving west still and opening the arctic door.

I'll be ridiculed for this but goes to show that all options are still available... Who knows, could happen? Better run for cold seekers

 

I'll add, more runs needed but any gain in heights towards Iceland, and a move westward.... 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This is the most exciting winter since last year in my considered opinion. 

Well the 12z GFS coudnt be anymore bog standard winter fair imo.guess it's time to sit and wait

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Riveting gfs 12z if NW winds are your thing,at least it won’t be  so mild,but nothing really exciting regarding snow and cold

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Interesting to look at the 12z ensembles regarding high pressure... Will It sit over us, slip away SE or edge West as Steve M mentions! Edging West looks most likely currently, so I would say some colder shots from the NW, or dare I say it, the North remain a possibility! I wouldn't rule anything out, worth pointing out is exters thoughts on it becoming colder after next week with increasing frost, especially away from the NW. So most definitely, not all doom and gloom at this stage. 

gens-16-1-228.png

gens-20-1-240.png

gens-12-1-264.png

gens-12-0-264.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Maybe some potential for some colder WNW/NW Polar Maritime shots as the high moves position, but again at this stage it doesn’t appear it will be much other than a glancing blow with the Atlantic too strong. A bit of a worrying trend starting to emerge with the PV moving back to the NW too. One to watch.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Still charts looking to build high pressure from south west and return the same way after 10 days or so

that of course is still up to change. One thing looks certain dry some frosts fog and single figures for most 

England looks to be the coldest.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Although, by the dog-end of the GFS 12Z, it [the anticyclone] looks anchored down to the SW: my wait-for-a-flake situation goes on, and on. and on!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

158929834_NOAA_1_1984011512_11.thumb.png.3acf0250b51ced3d37efa31ed9845e73.png

It was then followed by a famous polar maritime widespread snow setup a week later:  northern blocking too far away to influence the UK; PV over Greenland but polar maritime zonal, and guess what, the famous event when a zonal Atlantic flow delivered widespread snowfall across the UK even to low levels:

image.thumb.png.b5af405671270542484f47d54cddb0e9.png

Those charts would have cold lovers tearing their hair out when a zonal flow sets in, as it now nearly always means mild unsettled weather for the UK compared to how the above charts show that if a zonal flow orientates favourably and sets up a polar maritime flow it can bring much colder weather with snow across the UK without significant northern blocking and full fledged northerly or easterly flows.  It is just one of the worst aspects to zonal flows in winter for me, as it almost always fails to deliver anything other than what we have had this month so far.

Just noticed your edit.  

Those above charts with your examples show how epic blocking isn’t always needed for some impressive cold and snowy weather over the UK. I admit that’s something else I didn’t really think about at the time when doing my post. But yeah, it is a shame it’s hard to get a cold, snowy, Atlantic zonal flow like that now. Not that it can’t ever happen again. Although it does seem when a zonal or Westerly flow sets in (unless I suppose it’s a reverse zonal flow with deep cold from the East), it easily seems more likely to bring milder weather than something particularly cold or wintry. There may have been some recent years where there were some decent, cold, Atlantic zonal flows, though can’t really think of any at the moment. If their have been any recently. (Except for some North-Westerly air streams bringing some cold-enough-for-snow showers here in the Midlands on a few odd occasions. 2010 being an example, and possibly during the Winter of 2017/18).

Maybe hopefully this Winter will still have some tricks up its sleeves for the cold weather enthusiasts. Especially considering there’s a fair portion of the season to go. 
 

Some drier weather looks possible within the next few days. An example from the latest GFS, UKMO and GEM below at 120 hours with High Pressure migrating over the UK.
C02AE5B2-0B5D-45DF-8496-D1FE5A175470.thumb.png.1ff47a6ab997bf5a76349add724a116a.png9571C067-B541-4247-9B1F-57C698AD2439.thumb.png.b4d14d047c22c797b80f79c9dfe34a55.png78BB16FF-5F5E-48DB-8471-BD5BC1C65E13.thumb.png.b9e936c2913a1f6d31c713a254cd1987.png

The length of this settled spell uncertain. Does look possible High Pressure may sink Southwards or perhaps get squeezed out West/South-West from the pressure of Lows running over the top of the ridging to the North, possibly with colder (perhaps wintry) weather developing from the North-West sector. The High Pressure dominated outlook in the closer range of the models should offer a break from the wind and rain that’s swamping the UK. Especially so over Southern UK, but Northern UK seeing a chance of some settled conditions, too. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding a bit more
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here is an example of how a mid latt high can give a tonking, look at the one over the US here, Just imagine it in the Atlantic next to us, i know it wouldn't be as cold if it were in the Atlantic but could still be decent for us.

image.thumb.png.b6177605e0682434824a1b75042a0c22.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a cold ecm  in the near term   frosts and seasonal weather   

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

If you like the odd frost and dry weather then EC looks ok until the PV pushes the heighths Into Europe at day ten.for me it's boring and eating up winter

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

If you like the odd frost and dry weather then EC looks ok until the PV pushes the heighths Into Europe at day ten.for me it's boring and eating up winter

I thought it looked ok at day 10 a north wester about to pile in at day 11 with a ridge building north in the mid Atlantic. 

63B7D383-7958-4265-ABD9-DD291703FCB8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

ECM showing that the flat orientation of high over England could very easily drag some very cold continental 

air into the mix.Lot of chopping and changing still to come could be a good time to keep a very sharp eye on

precedings.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I thought it looked ok at day 10 a north wester about to pile in at day 11 with a ridge building north in the mid Atlantic. 

63B7D383-7958-4265-ABD9-DD291703FCB8.png

I think at day eleven it probably won't like most of the run be there.my real point is we can't get a decent cold spell in and time is moving on.if a northwesterly is your thing then fair enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

So looks like high pressure is set to influence the weather although how much of an influence is still up to some debate. Most likely does seem to be the whole high won't land on top of the UK so eventually more cloud toppling in and making the high a more cloudy one. Some runs did have it more over us so chilly frosty weather is more widespread and the very odd run i seen has the high slightly to the east so picking up a more continental flow. Will the high retrogress to Greenland? History suggests no, I seen it for many years this type of set up and very rarely a Greenland high appears from this set up, anyways that lump of PV to the west of Greenland is not forecast to weaken so at this stage I don't think a Greenland high is likely unfortunately. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
16 minutes ago, igloo said:

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

Granted it may not be cold enough to stop you from being homeless   however  I expect temps to be 3-5c  with temps dropping by night   not perishing  but much better than currently 

Edited by weirpig
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