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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC bringing a 1045mb whopping anticyclone at day 7 ...

image.thumb.png.fe5baab9267f4f7de665281f41832623.png

Not sure but its very rare to see 1045 mb over the uk.

 

15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Goes against ECM as well  

D793E931-EEF1-466B-BEC6-493C44B02E5E.png

D75D83DA-55AA-409F-B131-25E1FF88A800.gif

 

15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL..

192

1040 mb sat over the UK

image.thumb.png.764b32bed745c5ec22261f804e405ff6.png

 

15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM allows this at T192 however.

image.thumb.jpg.aebb70a25086197734e433af7afe8b7f.jpg

Guys, cherry picking one chart from the whole run cannot be compared to the 6-14 day mean charts, c'mon you know better then that!

Those ECM charts you posted do not disprove what the NOAA charts are predicting, there is precious little contradiction at all as the whole ECM runs do not sit a high pressure over the UK all of the time like a previous GFS run that i mentioned did!.

The ECM runs are unsettled, in as much as they are mobile, with the high pressure moving around, these charts are very close to being in line with what the NOAA charts predict when you compare like for like - ie the whole run.

Its true that the latest NOAA anomaly chart has shifted towards a more short lived settled spell, but overall and despite high pressure domination, but the ECM is still in line with the NOAA charts, there is mobility, the high isnt static, thats the point.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

So the 06z GFS moves closer to ECM in terms of dynamics. It is very mundane and not very seasonal, just average fare with temps above average as a whole. Mostly a westerly influence from the high and at D10:

1437652571_gfseu-0-240(2).thumb.png.936e016c5865f7a6fa3af9e47ef435e8.png

The high sinking to Iberia rather than on the 0z when it was pushed east. The ECM sinking towards the Azores so relatively similar. The tPV a beast on this run at D11 so not sure we should be too confident in this run post D10:

1181906869_gfsnh-0-264(7).thumb.png.327d981a591a20f318d32f78fb0e2a7c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Looking at the here and now   Strong winds to navigate across parts of the country today   anywhere in England/Wales will see high winds    however North Wales and the South West could see damaging gusts

image.thumb.png.1f9ca1324d41de7cd274869d93ffefd2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Both ECM and GFS starting pressure rise from our southwest.And both sinking same direction at about 10 days

to be followed by north to northwest polar air.Will of course change over the next few days,but still frosty for 

some time followed by single figures.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Anybody mentioned gfs being an outlier at 72 hours in regards to that mini low in the atlantic!!ukmo arpege and ecm separate it from the main low coming out the states where as gfs swallows it into the main low!!maybe thats what causes the gfs to be ever so slightly flatter between 144 and 192 hours?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anybody mentioned gfs being an outlier at 72 hours in regards to that mini low in the atlantic!!ukmo arpege and ecm separate it from the main low coming out the states where as gfs swallows it into the main low!!maybe thats what causes the gfs to be ever so slightly flatter between 144 and 192 hours?

I think thats fair comment shaky..

The direction of travel seems to be a gradual decline of the High -the hope for coldies is we see some sort of retrogression of the high in the Atlantic  , perhaps there will be some but at this juncture the best hope is a PM incursion, we just can't shake off the terrible profile to the North west.

I was hoping the MJO might be a way of breaking out of the flat pattern but i can't see anything in the 00Z products to suggest the MJO having any impact.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Morning. 

An update on todays very wet and also stormy weather for southern, central and Eastern areas for late afternoon, evening and overnight. 

Arome.. 

2pm..

224211897_UK_GUST_14(4).thumb.jpg.58b4a529af4b9eb59606ab4d032317e2.jpg

4pm..

374586327_UK_GUST_16(4).thumb.jpg.5ded15220598de44688aeaa7142d5f91.jpg

6pm..

1424391983_UK_GUST_18(3).thumb.jpg.6a79f92449a51a3d2058720d0568a3f0.jpg

8pm..

1524648246_UK_GUST_20(1).thumb.jpg.d9d7f72cea2b59f6795dac3ae123691f.jpg

Very strong winds developing widely for England and Wales at first then through the latter part of this afternoon into this evening for more central southern and Eastern regions with gusts for a few hours of between 50-60mph likely in many places Inland perhaps between 60-70mph along parts of the coast, the strongest winds likely in association with another very squally cold front set to move erratically northeast during the latter part of this evening and overnight for southern and central England with a fairly narrow line of particularly heavy perhaps torrential rain developing, this very slowly moves east southeast through southeastern England overnight as a wave develops on this front with it not clearing the far east until after mid morning tomorrow. The winds will ease markedly for western and central parts of England after midnight but stay very strong for southeast England with gusts continuing around 50mph widely until dawn before easing slowly here. 

Midnight..

1784189831_UK_GUST_24(2).thumb.jpg.5ecd7992a2b9bf0c521aeff54c700f78.jpg

2am..

1841300564_UK_GUST_26(1).thumb.jpg.24cbf4ddf98c2a590f4183eeadd3996a.jpg

Rainfall forecast..

10pm..

2059100168_UK_RAIN1_22(2).thumb.jpg.5474fede760c7a39e28d4917d3f7f05b.jpg

Midnight..

364421075_UK_RAIN1_24(2).thumb.jpg.9e67a0576e8dd3fd7e53ec6cf0c7d047.jpg

3am..

841129779_UK_RAIN1_27(3).thumb.jpg.72a9114956c2414df8769c4d62abecc7.jpg

5am..

1061069796_UK_RAIN1_29(4).thumb.jpg.94d33a0dd1fb3b679a281a1044162a55.jpg

11am..

1658196495_UK_RAIN1_35(1).thumb.jpg.fda7f89313dffb699348020fb035ff5b.jpg

As much as 15-25mm likely to accumulate quite widely altogether for England and Wales perhaps 30-40mm for some areas south of the m4. 

For the rest of the week the weather remains largely unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds on Thursday but then after this a strong area of high pressure will build close to and over the uk for the weekend bringing much more settled and drier conditions still some showers around for the north mainly with this being wintry for Scotland with overnight frost and fog patches, this seems likely to continue early-mid next week particularly for southern parts but in 8-10 days time high pressure declining southwards with a more unsettled Atlantic flow coming back in winds perhaps from a more northwesterly direction by this time. 

19th..

865382869_EUROPE_PRMSL_114(6).thumb.jpg.6b7d6f7fc9fc65bf4415d235eba1ba80.jpg

20th..

1152221007_EUROPE_PRMSL_144(17).thumb.jpg.7162c7a511aeb20284b524c8b71f295c.jpg

22nd..

1996761193_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(12).thumb.jpg.40972ad41c0676b7ab17049603f078e1.jpg

23rd..

1251311617_EUROPE_PRMSL_228(8).thumb.jpg.3f83270cf0b7f8b0712e207532b6b997.jpg

24th..

593618071_EUROPE_PRMSL_234(13).thumb.jpg.6587b81fe45336939a3f7dbbb8acb360.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Looking at the models again today, there is very little cold on offer. The high pressure is projected to meet to the south or southwest of the UK so a cloudy mild high with a gentle from from the Atlantic.

MaybMaybe a northerly toppler towards the end of January of the mjo plays ball.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

D8 - Main vortex over Siberia:

image.thumb.png.fd819e6b912d44f7026c16ec3754c20e.png

D15 - Spinning round like a big washing machine, main deep vortex spins its way back over to its usual home of NE Canada/Greenland:

image.thumb.png.97902853e662219591a8f4907c1b0867.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

Big move on the clusters this morning to back the ridge west at D10 and allow a temporary Scandi trough. Might allow a 24-48 hour window for a NW colder blast before westerlies return.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

 

Cant say I'm surprised, 9/10 isn't that what happens?  How many times have highs over the UK moved into good positions for cold? My first thought on this UK high business was it becoming a sinker as per usual.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.26ee9ea4bfed80363bff5bb054699c57.png

  

 

I’d wait and see re the later progression . The GFS does get into phase 8 and some other forecasts are more bullish about phase 8.

At least we’re soon to escape the dreaded phase 4 and 5 which are terrible for cold prospects .

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’d wait and see re the later progression . The GFS does get into phase 8 and some other forecasts are more bullish about phase 8.

At least we’re soon to escape the dreaded phase 4 and 5 which are terrible for cold prospects .

true - today the diiff between 6h of charts is HUGE - any winterforecast was a fail - more times

Lets hope to see it in late Jan / start Febr image.thumb.png.df86b76186748ae274a1897b6032f717.png

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

D8 - Main vortex over Siberia:

image.thumb.png.fd819e6b912d44f7026c16ec3754c20e.png

D15 - Spinning round like a big washing machine, main deep vortex spins its way back over to its usual home of NE Canada/Greenland:

image.thumb.png.97902853e662219591a8f4907c1b0867.png

 

I like D15 for the Alps

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
41 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

We may have put you on the naughty seat for this, but we have no spare naughty seats available at the moment, so it looks like you’ll escape the chair!

Since it’s quiet in here anyway (and that the level of my grumpiness is low), the post won’t be under threat from our magic disappearing potion.

I think should the likely UK ridging next week get pushed back towards the South-West of the UK - which some models like the GEM and ECMWF, show as a possibility, then any North-Westerly flow that could spill over the top of the High Pressure might as well be an extremely high quality one. A potent North-Westerly flow with 850 hPa temperatures of -7*C and lower accompanied by low 500mb heights to bring an army of snow showers not only to high ground, but to lower levels too. Something a bit like the below:

C23671B6-36C1-4DC9-9358-80AC4675A135.thumb.png.87eb7ac504128b89eace05f83e406644.pngD6D3A37D-B83E-48FE-8F62-28440338B766.thumb.png.f049a4ddb5a998795437b8ef82b84f7e.png2628EBED-33A4-499D-A526-5AA1D2B60106.thumb.png.4963ffbedd6e630b7ac753588f4851f0.pngE8AFF044-A401-4442-9D19-78CC193AF6A3.thumb.png.63656a06e1215cc0dbe382d9f7cf5914.png

There are likely to be better examples, but something like that. An Arctic plunge, though, direct from the North could still happen - even if late January fails to produce this and have to wait until February or something for this to occur. (If any Northerlies do materialise at all this Winter. Just need the Vortex over the Canadian or Greenland area to pull its socks up and invade somewhere else for once!).

For a lot of the cold weather fans, there’s probably nothing much worse than having a measly Polar Maritime Westerly or North-Westerly flow containing 850 hPa temperatures of -3*C or -4*C with low level sleety rain showers.

The charts you posted led to this:  PV over Greenland, no northern blocking, but guess what; heavy snow across northern England northwards even to low levels.

158929834_NOAA_1_1984011512_11.thumb.png.3acf0250b51ced3d37efa31ed9845e73.png

It was then followed by a famous polar maritime widespread snow setup a week later:  northern blocking too far away to influence the UK; PV over Greenland but polar maritime zonal, and guess what, the famous event when a zonal Atlantic flow delivered widespread snowfall across the UK even to low levels:

image.thumb.png.b5af405671270542484f47d54cddb0e9.png

Those charts would have cold lovers tearing their hair out when a zonal flow sets in, as it now nearly always means mild unsettled weather for the UK compared to how the above charts show that if a zonal flow orientates favourably and sets up a polar maritime flow it can bring much colder weather with snow across the UK without significant northern blocking and full fledged northerly or easterly flows.  It is just one of the worst aspects to zonal flows in winter for me, as it almost always fails to deliver anything other than what we have had this month so far.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The charts you posted led to this:  PV over Greenland, no northern blocking, but guess what;  heavy snow across northern England northwards even to low levels.

image.png

Fair point. The Vortex was strong to our North-West on that chart (as you say, the Polar Vortex over Greenland), and another area of it directly to the North of the UK. Having a dominant Vortex to our North/North-West clearly isn’t always bad for cold weather for the UK and can, in fact, I guess help add potency to any Polar Maritime incursions from the West or North-West.  I suppose what I probably should have said that for something longer lasting cold-wise, having a fair chunk of the Greenland/Canadian Vortex shifting to somewhere else (such as Scandinavia/Russia/Siberia) could be ideal. And allow stronger blocking opportunities to occur to the North and/or West of us. 

I think despite me saying that the Greenland or Canadian Vortex could do with invading another area, there does seem to have been possibilities from the models in the last few days for the Vortex over Greenland/Canada to drain some of its upper low heights away from that area and move over to the North-East of the UK. Something that could be temporary (as some have addressed the risk of the Vortex re-powering up to the North-West of us). But probably too far away to give too much notice to at the moment.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

 

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