Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[BlueHedgehog074]

A little focus of the operational models around 144 hours:
 

00Z GFS

00Z ECMWF

00Z UKMO

00Z GEM

00Z ICON

All mostly going for High Pressure rocking about over and/or close to the UK area. So chance for the weather to settle down. Placement of the High Pressure isn’t fully certain around that time range. The ICON, for example, has it more towards the South of the UK while the GEM has the centre of the High just to the South-West of Wales. I think having High Pressure pay the UK a visit appears to be quite a likely scenario at all. Could certainly be chilly with some frost and fog at night (assuming High Pressure sets up favourably for that, which seems possible).

Nothing particularly snowy for now really, but hopefully some white stuff will turn up at some point during the next few weeks or so.
 

Edited January 13, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[coldwinter]

A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with  hopefully  some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, coldwinter said:

A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with  hopefully  some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer 

I do not think that a northerly outbreak was ever shown by any model in the period January 20th to 22nd, except for one isolated ECM op run at day ten.  The most commonly shown scenario for that timeframe was HP close by to the UK, which at a week or just over out is difficult in winter to predict what temperatures will be seen at ground level.

[Anthony Burden]

As already stated ECM high pressure the key to all doors regarding cold frosty weather,starting at 120 hrs will it

find its way north and bring some cold north to northeasterly winds.A good chance I feel this time,we shall see

fingers crossed.

[northwestsnow]

Being the geek i am im hoping we do see a cold frosty high - last third of Jan is a good time of year to test how low temps can go..

The key here is the troughing to our South 

Temps would be sub zero by night and struggling by day

As a coldie i don't see any crushing blows - HP in charge and hopefully a bit of help from the MJO down the line.

All good from where i'm sat ..

[Methuselah]

Not the most encouraging of GFS 00Zs this morning: I wonder if the models overreacted to signals for the tPV shifting into Siberia, the super-cold Screurocharts of a few days' back having done a David Cameron:

    

On to the 06z!

[northwestsnow]

It may have gone un-noticed but GEFS have flipped to a colder outlook this morning..

And the 850s do not tell the whole tale in this set up..

edit EC mean has HP in control and ends with HP in control

Edited January 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It may have gone un-noticed but GEFS have flipped to a colder outlook this morning..

And the 850s do not tell the whole tale in this set up..

Im surprised by the comments on here aswell by the way!looking like a very cold and frosty outlook to me!!better than mild and wet all day!!although i must say we getting to that stage where even a frost wont cut it lol!!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im surprised by the comments on here aswell by the way!looking like a very cold and frosty outlook to me!!better than mild and wet all day!!although i must say we getting to that stage where even a frost wont cut it lol!!

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers

 

 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers

 

 

Good running weather aswell!!nothing like a run on a cold crisp morning!!❄

[cheshire snow]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Being the geek i am im hoping we do see a cold frosty high - last third of Jan is a good time of year to test how low temps can go..

The key here is the troughing to our South 

Temps would be sub zero by night and struggling by day

As a coldie i don't see any crushing blows - HP in charge and hopefully a bit of help from the MJO down the line.

All good from where i'm sat ..

Yes NWS

Hopefully the HP sets up in the correct position where we can see sparkling sunshine by day and some harsh frosty nights.If snow is not on the agenda yet then this is by far second best.

C.S

[Dennis]

500Hpa temps maybe for some snow signs....

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers

 

 

By the way backtrack complete from the gfs at 96 hours on the 06z!!gone fully towards ukmo!!ecm has aswell!!gota say ukmo has impressed me this winter!!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

By the way backtrack complete from the gfs at 96 hours on the 06z!!gone fully towards ukmo!!ecm has aswell!!gota say ukmo has impressed me this winter!!

Ye  in my opinion  its been very consistent  this winter   6z  brings  heavy snowfall for the scottish ski resorts  

[coldwinter]

Excellent 6z with high pressure firmly in charge! Builds in from the 18th and should last a week 

[weirpig]

Colder run  compared  to the 0z   fine and frosty  looks like being the favourite as we enter the weekend and beyond     Nothing dramatic  but at least it will feel like winter 

[mb018538]

As long as its a cold high then i think most will be happy/happier. We haven't had one this winter, and it'd be a welcome break from the incessant wind and rain of the last 2-3 months, and a good chance to dry out.

As for the GFS, it's been garbage all winter. Even the GEM has verified better at times.

[northwestsnow]

GFS is a HP fest ....

For the colder uppers we need a break from the flat jet and systems exiting the ESB.

No sign of that happening at the moment.

Still, should be more seasonal for the timebeing , after thurs..

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 0z @144

 

UKMO 0z @144

 

ECM 0z @144

 

GEM 0z @144

So a cold UK High looks the most likely outcome around 19th Jan according to most of the 0z runs.

Can the High then orientate into a more favourable position for longer term cold after that ?

The GEM tries to build a ridge NE at 168 but then flattens. ( below )

GEM 0z @168

The GFS 6z ( just out ) looks to do something similar @ 168 ( below )

GFS 6z @168

Overall Summary , Cold , Dry , Frosty with further chances down the line towards the end of the month. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Being the geek i am im hoping we do see a cold frosty high - last third of Jan is a good time of year to test how low temps can go..

The key here is the troughing to our South 

Temps would be sub zero by night and struggling by day

As a coldie i don't see any crushing blows - HP in charge and hopefully a bit of help from the MJO down the line.

All good from where i'm sat ..

GFS 06z in tandem with ECM. Mild(ish) by day and cold nights and mornings seems a good bet.  That’ll do for now.  I don’t think that will get better but slight tweaks could bring more, but also less.  A few -6c nights with heavy frosts will satisfy me after this first half of winter 

 

BFTP

[legritter]

Hi gang ,just a quick post from me .my thoughts today ,we have a solid high come this weekend, its where this high could finish ip which interests me  ,a nice shift north and its game on  , so we have some hope at last  ,cheers gang .

[Blessed Weather]

Here comes Storm Brendan, looking quite some feature in the infrared image of mid/upper level water vapour:

Source: http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/listi/

[Reefseeker]

5 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,just a quick post from me .my thoughts today ,we have a solid high come this weekend, its where this high could finish ip which interests me  ,a nice shift north and its game on  , so we have some hope at last  ,cheers gang .

Sorry to ask, but what are the outcomes of the high shifting north? Where would this be centered for the best outcomes in terms of a nice clean cold high atop the UK? As with others this morning, a break from the endless rain would be very welcome; those of us with dogs to walk are tired of sticky muddy boots and dog bellies and paws week in week out! BTW Legritter, I always enjoy your posts:)

Edited January 13, 2020 by Reefseeker

[northwestsnow]

Finally seeing some signs deep in FI of retrogression in the Atlantic...

Cold High followed by some PM shots?..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Sorry to ask, but what are the outcomes of the high shifting north? Where would this be centered for the best outcomes in terms of a nice clean cold high atop the UK? As with others this morning, a break from the endless rain would be very welcome; those of us with dogs to walk are tired of sticky muddy boots and dog bellies and paws week in week out! BTW Legritter, I always enjoy your posts:)

Further north more chance of it being/becoming a cold high as it will draw cold continental air around its bottom flank.  Also any Atlantic influence gets reduced the further shift north too, Centred northern England at least is wanted.  Most cold lovers want it to move towards and settle over Scandinavia to bring bitter cold easterlies.

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST