Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes , that angle isn’t great .Comparing it though with the ECM and GFS it has the most amplified upstream solution . The high is furthest north. To be honest I was expecting a better day 7 chart from its day 6 .

Yes,the UKMO is the most amplified at day seven with a NE flow where as the ecm and gfs has a westerly flow over the top.

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,the UKMO is the most amplified at day seven with a NE flow where as the ecm and gfs has a westerly flow over the top.

 

There’s decent support in the ECM ensembles for a more ne flow for De Bilt . The wind directions show a large divergence with two clusters , one east to ne the other more nw from the 19 th to the 23 rd.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s decent support in the ECM ensembles for a more ne flow for De Bilt . The wind directions show a large divergence with two clusters , one east to ne the other more nw from the 19 th to the 23 rd.

Yes Nick,a lot more so than prev runs when they were a flat west to southwesterly but we shouldn't discount the NWly's.

for anyone new on here that doesn't know how to read this graph:-

the numbers on the left represent the degrees,think of a pie chart

90 is easterly

180 is southerly

270 is westerly

360 is northerly.

 

[PiscesStar]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes Nick,a lot more so than prev runs when they were a flat west to southwesterly but we shouldn't discount the NWly's.

for anyone new on here that doesn't know how to read this graph:-

the numbers on the left represent the degrees,think of a pie chart

90 is easterly

180 is southerly

270 is westerly

360 is northerly.

 

So an easterly then showing yes? 

[Catacol]

Well - here we go perhaps. Not quite last chance saloon - but certainly if we don't get a pattern change of reasonable significance in the coming phase, then winter will be running out of time.

Just one chart - tells a story.

This chart shows very clearly the ongoing interference caused by the standing wave through the Indian Ocean at 60E and the failed effort through late Dec in the last passage of convection through the pacific. The hope last time around was that convection intiated into the maritime region in the last third of December would bring a coolish blocking pattern - but the indian ocean remained active, the signal was clouded, AAM rose but not enough and we ended up with a pretty grim warm SW feed. Worst of all solutions unless you like winter mild.

As expected the next bout of convection is on the way - it has kicked off just to the west of the maritimes and this time is forecast perhaps to maintain a higher intensity while at least the indian ocean fades away.

What this should do - in theory - is shift the wave pattern and inject momentum into the sub tropical jet to allow a wave break and a ridge to form. Given the gradually shortening wavelengths of the season now I would think to the west of the UK is more likely than to the NE  though NWP is toying with both - but I'd guess we might see heights to the west rise and then hold their ground.

2 problems - first of all the forecasts of the decline of the Indian Ocean driver have proved wrong before. As of today it is still in place. And the passage of this MJO wave has to break through the relatively land dominated area around the maritimes where often it can fade. There is no guarantee.

The second problem would be that, given above average vortex strength right now, the ridge might build and then, in any case, be outdone by high lat westerlies. I used the analogy of another web writer of a "buzzcut" a while ago. Tells it rather well. And then - given shortening wavelengths - might our mid atlantic high retrogress to the west and once again leave us on the warm side of a trough? I wouldn't rule that out - I would far rather see a Scandy ridge develop as the starter - but without a substantive shift through 7 - 8- 1 I don't think this will occur. A dying phase 7 signal as is currently being touted would favour the mid atlantic high.

Confidence has been dented this winter. I'm hoping for a major ridge as the MJO breaks through at least to phase 8 and a drag of air in from the east under a high centred to our north. I fear a weaker version positioned a little further west with cool NW flow over the top the best we manage. Snow instead for the south of France?

Very little margin for error on this now given where we are at present.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Catacol

[damianslaw]

Models continue to show a more amplified flow later next week, thanks to changes in the arctic upstream profile - Pacific ridge towards the Pole. After a further bout of heavy rain, wind in the coming days, a calming of conditions is being shown - with high pressure ridging into the UK. Something drier and colder on the cards.

Whether this signals the start of a protracted drier colder theme, or just a relaxation of the unsettled weather, remains to be seen. The zonal winds are due to peak this coming week, hence the very unsettled few days ahead, but we are now at the stage in the winter, when seasonal wavelengths begin to temper there strength and blocking episode begin to have an easier time exerting themselves - this is a factor we all now need to start to factor in to account.

 

[damianslaw]

No comment on 18z usually a sign it isn't showing anything appreciably wintry.. alas it is sticking to the amplified flow from 19th until about 23rd. Heights forecast to build northwards but then collapse back on themselves as the jet rides over the top. Signs that they will ridge and affect far west and north west very late timescale which would usher in a cold northerly flow..

[PiscesStar]

Latest gfs run looks shockingly samey. Unsettled week to come with high pressure ridging in courtesy of the azores high which has plagued us all winter on what seems like a relentless conveyor belt to a great or lesser extent.  Looks like those that called a mild winter are going to be right. Damned shame after last year's mega disappointment.... 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Snowfish2

[northwestsnow]

A very poor GFS 18z ...

Flat as a pancake into FI..

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A very poor GFS 18z ...

Flat as a pancake into FI..

Hopefully that means tomorrow 00z gona be more amplified instead of the other way around!!noticed the 18z to be a lot more amplified recently only for the 00zs to flatten out again!!maybe we have broken that trend tonight

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hopefully that means tomorrow 00z gona be more amplified instead of the other way around!!noticed the 18z to be a lot more amplified recently only for the 00zs to flatten out again!!maybe we have broken that trend tonight

We are going to need upgrades in the morning shaky..

Hoping the MJO can shake this ruddy profile up-  need it to get its skates on and hopefully we will see something more appealing ..

 

 

[nick sussex]

The GFS although underwhelming later does now develop that shortwave ahead of the main low .

Thats a move to the UKMO in the earlier timeframe .

GEFS number 6 gives you an idea of the sort of evolution possible upto day ten if the shortwave cuts se allowing the ridge to build more strongly ne .

The GFS op doesn’t quite have enough upstream amplitude to drive that cleanly se wards .

The ECM ensembles do show decent  support for that type of evolution .

The more important bit for coldies though is more likely to be what happens after that , so does the high retrogress west to allow a colder more unstable northerly flow .

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by nick sussex

[Dennis]

into BBQ wearher again.....when i follow the charts per run im so confused every time- its not normal how the flipflap continues

.

[shaky]

Gfs and ecm move towards ukmo quite significantly so aswell at the 120 hour time frame!!shortwave cutting through south west of the uk and high building around it with slight north east winds!!sure gona feel cold!!gfs slowly getting there aswell!

[That ECM]

20th on ecm last 4 oz runs . Good consistency. The confidence level drops by the professionals because imo they don’t know where this high will go. 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

20th on ecm last 4 oz runs . Good consistency. The confidence level drops by the professionals because imo they don’t know where this high will go. 

At the moment it looks to be migrating towards scandi area!!

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

At the moment it looks to be migrating towards scandi area!!

tinted  the fact is we don’t know. Using various output you can make all outcomes look possible.  

Edited January 13, 2020 by That ECM

[mb018538]

ECM showing no retrograding high today, instead keeping it in place over the UK propped up by an Iberian low. Looks like a cold high too, something we've not had all winter at least...

[Newberryone]

00z Ecm is definitely an improvement on the previous run with the high in a far more favorable position for surface cold at least. I think we might be turning a corner for the better from here on in.

[bluearmy]

Latest ecm spreads for day 10 show favoured placements of upper pattern - Iceland low and scrussian trough with Azores ridge 

[mountain shadow]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM showing no retrograding high today, instead keeping it in place over the UK propped up by an Iberian low. Looks like a cold high too, something we've not had all winter at least...

I'm not expecting any retyogression until month end when the MJO phase 7 should start to impact.

That's based on the MJO getting into phase 7 at a decent amplitude.

[mb018538]

ECM ensembles this morning - no cold outcomes favoured out to day 10, with pressure starting to decline from day 7 onwards:



 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Chilly ECM run this morning. (Especially 120 to 240 hours)

Quite settled and frosts for many of us if it all becomes reality! 

In the short term snowfall tomorrow over high ground of Scotland. (200/300 meters) 

Much better outlook for the Scottish ski industry.

 

A wee bit stormy today and tomorrow for quite a few of us - some interesting weather at last! 

 

I think going forward more patience required regarding lowland snowfall UK and Ireland wide - usual Winter stuff for us. (Late January, February and March still to go for that) 
Just book a wee flight to Iceland or Northern Scandinavia for a fix of proper cold/snow if you can’t wait any longer. 

On that wintry note I wish you all a good day - hopefully for us cold/snow lovers we start to see those nice blues and whites over the UK and Ireland within the next month or two!

Have a good week everyone!

Edited January 13, 2020 by Mr Frost

[chris55]

GFS ensembles actually looking chilly for a period from 17th.
 

All down to the position/orientation of the high, Op going on the mild side 850s wise. If we can draw in a cooler airmass like ECM the it could begin to feel like winter with plenty of frost and fog about.

 

[northwestsnow]

55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM ensembles this morning - no cold outcomes favoured out to day 10, with pressure starting to decline from day 7 onwards:



 

DET looks very cold late in the week right through the weekend and onto next week.

Plenty of cold frosty weather on offer