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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

ECM over amplified in previous runs,now as flat as Aston Villa’s attack was earlier 

Miles away from anything cold on this ECM run,clock is ticking on this winter I’m afraid to say.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

A few posts discussing the Bay of Biscay have been moved to the thread below. Model output discussions in this thread please folks. Thank you.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, igloo said:

aye back to square one again could well be back to another Bartlett again what a change from 12h ago disapointing

 

ECH1-216.gif

We haven't had a Bartlett this Winter.

Personally,  I'm not expecting anything until month end when the MJO should allow us an opportunity for something colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ECM over amplified in previous runs,now as flat as Aston Villa’s attack was earlier 

Miles away from anything cold on this ECM run,clock is ticking on this winter I’m afraid to say.

I disagree ridge moving up eastern seaboard that may enable another go at retrogression. It is typical how we see amplification and NE USA goes into freezer sending a lot of ‘chaotic energy’ our way.

FA70E4DC-7A19-4A78-8C64-ED6F8BF4EE34.thumb.jpeg.ff713fc2a44c6a6ad8575bc3ebd590ca.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO looks best of the big 3 at day 6 , still a lot of disagreement though at days 5 and 6 as to what happens to the west and nw .

Does anyone have the day 7 UKMO . Would be interesting to see whether that builds a strong ridge ne.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Reference to a deleted post removed.
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I take it you don’t like tonight’s outputs! 

The UKMO looks best of the big 3 at day 6 , still a lot of disagreement though at days 5 and 6 as to what happens to the west and nw .

Does anyone have the day 7 UKMO . Would be interesting to see whether that builds a strong ridge ne.

Here Nick

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

it comes out around 9pm.

P.S,i don't know why every one is complaining about the output past 144 hrs when there is disagreement before hand.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure it is as simple as that, ECM and GEM at T240, ECM first

image.thumb.jpg.0679b16ced61e356d1ed76be86062998.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.241d1e1c92c4ce76014e1bf0837d2fcb.jpg

Both amplified, but by this point various mechanisms have shoved the trop PV to Siberia on GEM, ECM less successfully.  But these are just two outcomes of uncertainty that occurs much earlier in the runs, people need to understand uncertainty!

It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much  crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much  crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood 

Lower likelihood than what? The last few weeks when it has been zero?  My point about uncertainty is that we don't yet know if this increased amplitude that does seem to appear in the models will yield a northerly, an easterly via Scandi high, or merely a UK high, all are still possible.  I'm not betting on the northerly option, although I will discuss it if it is on the model output, my view is that a pattern change is underfoot and the destination is uncertain, as you say fingers crossed!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 12z @ 168

spacer.pngGEM 12z @ 168

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 168

It is unfortunate that we cant see the UKMO 12z @ 168.

At least we have some amplification within the 7 days period from most of the models ( which was totally lacking 3 days ago )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here Nick

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

it comes out around 9pm.

P.S,i don't know why every one is complaining about the output past 144 hrs when there is disagreement before hand.

Thanks for that . And yes I think until there’s agreement on the earlier timeframe then best to wait and see what’s likely to be on the table . 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Just taking the outputs to day 6 .

The ECM and UKMO are broadly similar with the upstream pattern . The ECM only has a weak  shortwave ahead of the main low . 

The UKMO develops that into a deeper low .

The GFS has the flattest pattern. The shortwave/low is absorbed into the main low .

Looking at the ECM ensemble pressure spreads . A large divergence over Scandi and also southwest of Greenland . If you add in the 850 spreads then the placement of troughing in those two areas is still quite uncertain .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

This is where i think we are , next weekend high pressure then the following week which is 8 days away i am totally clueless .looks to me that energy a cold plunge will occur sending arctic air south ,we should know where and direction about Wednesday of this week .i must admit looking at tonights ecm 9 day and 10 day made my blood boil ,so perhaps after a fall we are due for BOOM BOOM  .  Great forum gang , cheers .

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I know it's the day ten mean from the eps but i am quiet liking what i am seeing actually

here is why!

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.4e1e756d78f0c86d3788071ef389f163.gif

main tpv over Siberia-check

lower heights in the Med-check

Possible retrogression of the hp cell(black arrow)

and Possible reload from the N/NW(purple arrow)

the mjo hits the buffers before Phase 8 and heads towards the COD(circle of death)but we have seen this happen over the last few days only to keep it amplified as the days went on.

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.a2c1a894c7babec5afac937b1e0f81a3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

We haven't had a Bartlett this Winter.

Personally,  I'm not expecting anything until month end when the MJO should allow us an opportunity for something colder.

I'm here

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think the best way to view the outputs is whether the background signals could match what’s on offer .

We are currently passing two pretty horrid MJO phases for cold , 4 and 5 . Once into phase 6 you often see some amplification added into the mix .

We’d need that into phase 7 and hopefully 8 . The MJO by itself though isn’t a guarantee of cold but increases the chances . The zonal winds are set to peak in the next few days before falling .

So with that in mind the two combined should further increase chances for cold .

The lag effect needs to be taken into account though .

Of course if this was early winter we’d have more time to play with so I can understand the frustration if we get a few false dawns in the meantime .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks for that . And yes I think until there’s agreement on the earlier timeframe then best to wait and see what’s likely to be on the table . 

Difficult to gauge -ECM on right flatter

1DA11067-990D-4BCC-8C99-D46F39EEDC18.thumb.png.65405812deca70c7aa7706439ca56a5b.pngB7F9F762-E52C-4102-BAF5-88A47AD3EF7B.thumb.png.6988826d2cda4a8be4ed5bc6c593b557.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Difficult to gauge -

1DA11067-990D-4BCC-8C99-D46F39EEDC18.thumb.png.65405812deca70c7aa7706439ca56a5b.png

 

Yes , that angle isn’t great .Comparing it though with the ECM and GFS it has the most amplified upstream solution . The high is furthest north. To be honest I was expecting a better day 7 chart from its day 6 .

Looking at the De Bilt ensembles the ECM op is one of the mildest solutions days 9 and 10.

Edited by nick sussex
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