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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Anyone know why the ECM 0z ensembles aren't showing up on Meteociel?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone know why the ECM 0z ensembles aren't showing up on Meteociel?

D10: 1003649300_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.38be7bc04ca48b954fdbfe532bf4c0be.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Anyone know why the ECM 0z ensembles aren't showing up on Meteociel?

Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical. 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
13 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10: 1003649300_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.38be7bc04ca48b954fdbfe532bf4c0be.gif

Looks promising

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Finally updated. Although the ECM 0z op run looks an Outlier at the end let's hope its leading the way

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif.png

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
  • Location: Leysdown, Kent
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical. 

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Retron said:

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

Many thanks for that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngECM 0z @t240 yesterday

spacer.pngECM 0z @216 today

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/E Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

 

Difficult to analyse that chart but the GEFS mean at D10 followed by the ECM mean...

gens-21-6-240.thumb.png.dc876d033113b73e878edebeed5d6cc1.pngEDM100-240.thumb.gif.577a69e3fea8bba8434331e52bf99125.gif

...do not really back up the ECM op at D10...

ECM100-240.thumb.gif.9ca2f75f0d1c486a264e546789a444c9.gif

...with respect to upper air depth of cold. It would appear the ECM op is at the extreme end of cold possibilities. Few of us are arguing that as the mini-ridge topples, colder air will filter south close to the UK, but fleeting and variation of potency. Certainly the ECM mean does not support the op for those uppers, not even close, ditto GEFS mean. All subject to change, though D10 ECM op charts should never be banked when heights are involved.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

Yes - its a stonker but we have been here so many times with ECM since the upgrade around the time i started viewing models.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't help but notice how as soon has we get the first glimmer of a cold shot, it's quickly shot down in its chances by some. The fact its showing at all must at least give us some hope, let's face it, even day 9 and 10 cold charts have been lacking anything wintry this year so far... Lovely day 9/10 ECM chart... Let's build on it hopefully!! Oh and big welcome to Retron, a very good poster from two.... Somethings a brewing when he turns up..

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Very unsettled GFS 6z with wind and rain .fi looks a shocker compared to earlier PV very dominant and less troughing to the south east of Europe

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Not much to say about latest gfs run,just rinse and repeat? no sign of anything changing on this run 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Clearly we are seeing divergence between the models on how this plays out..

Something drier and colder for late Jan looks a decent shout at this juncture IMO.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Let’s hope ECM 216hrs and 240hrs are onto a change to colder conditions,GFS looks like more of the same

old changeable weather.Keep are fingers crossed that ECM has finally picked up on a pattern change to 

colder weather.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Yep - majority are back to westerlies by day 15 as the ridge quickly collapses. Long lasting cold doesn’t look very likely at this range, but if the stars align we might get a 24-48 hour northerly with some snow depending on where the wind lines up. I think most wild take this after the terrible winter so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I see the model with a bias for over amplifying at Day 9/10 is amplified at day 9/10 again.  Hmmmmm

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

At D10 on 06z there remains a cluster with better amplification, but it is diminishing and the op has jumped ship today:

gens_panel_aza3.png

At this range still on the table, but seeing the mechanics of how the ECM builds this transient ridge it looks more an algorithmic contrive than something I could have faith in. I think the ECM D10 high amplification charts have been wrong for around 99 times in a row so maybe this is the time! If they had been right 99 times in a row we would have been snowed in & ravaged by another mini-Ice Age.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

I actually think this is more likely the outcome than the ECM day 10 but I hope I'm wrong. A watered down PM Northwesterly is far more likely- great for the mountains and hills out North and West Crap for everywhere else

20200112_113211.jpg

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