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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

gens_panel_lqy6.png

 

Imo the perbs in fi mostly suggest a high over or near the uk. Very few get it high enough ne or nw to give us a proper cold shot. Although this is for the 21st and many are being positive about the end of the month I think that is still the outsider in terms of outcome. We will see but still not great imo. Hope I am wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, That ECM said:

gens_panel_lqy6.png

 

Imo the perbs in fi mostly suggest a high over or near the uk. Very few get it high enough ne or nw to give us a proper cold shot. Although this is for the 21st and many are being positive about the end of the month I think that is still the outsider in terms of outcome. We will see but still not great imo. Hope I am wrong

I think you're right. A UK based high with faux surface cold seems the way forward.

If it sticks around we may get luckier with ridging to the NW or NE as the PV naturally weakens into February.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think I can see your reasoning but the 8-14 NOAA has shown this 2-3 days ago then dropped it. If it keeps this and the 6-10 starts to pick up the signal for height rises in a similar place then your suggestion may well be along the right lines.

Yep, a few days ago it was showing a strong scandi high in the 8-14 day anomaly chart...which isn't going to happen as there is too much energy piling in yet again.

image.thumb.png.fcc02e33f712b2ce527d99e0b976170d.pngimage.thumb.png.af99f34a0d83652164d884d5d7f5a507.png


Thankfully the ECM 00z OP is too progressive this morning so should be disregarded for now. The ECM and GFS ensembles look quite similar at day 10, so hopefully as we get into the last 10 days of the month we can see a good pressure rise in our locale, and perhaps some fun and games after.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think you're right. A UK based high with faux surface cold seems the way forward.

If it sticks around we may get luckier with ridging to the NW or NE as the PV naturally weakens into February.

Does the pv naturally weaken in February?  I have it from mid March. Ssw aside of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Does the pv naturally weaken in February?  I have it from mid March. Ssw aside of course.

Should weaken I believe as the month progresses as the sunlight moves further and further North

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Does the pv naturally weaken in February?  I have it from mid March. Ssw aside of course.

Peaks at start of Jan, then downhill form there. You can see here (climatology is the black line):

u_65N_10hpa.png?v=20200109

(Source: H Attard)

 

Edit: Don't know why the PNG thumbnail isn't rendering, but clicking the link will show the image.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Another run showing a snow risk on the northern side of that low next weekend. Starting to become a trend and something to keep an eye on...

399904CD-EC5E-4231-B63C-B5C20E38861E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Another run showing a snow risk on the northern side of that low next weekend. Starting to become a trend and something to keep an eye on...

399904CD-EC5E-4231-B63C-B5C20E38861E.jpeg

The charts will look different by then. Not worth looking at precipitation type charts more than 48 hours ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Another run showing a snow risk on the northern side of that low next weekend. Starting to become a trend and something to keep an eye on...

399904CD-EC5E-4231-B63C-B5C20E38861E.jpeg

Nice to see, but how I wish it was for this weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
On 04/01/2020 at 10:19, mushymanrob said:

NOAA 8-14 dayer supports this too. IMHO theres growing hope for those seeking cold .  EDIT...i see diagonal red line has already posted this.

814day_03e.thumb.gif.a0fa8d17305b930f3ad98cbc20b54ed4.gif

Last Saturdays post. ^ ^ ^

11 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Because we see a transition from quite a zonal 6 - 10 chart (see attached) to a much drier 8 - 14 day chart which also gives more chance and indeed hope of a scandi high forming. Please note the words 'chance' and 'hope'. 

Screenshot_20200108-223903.png

Sorry @blizzard81 this is nothing new. I had actually speculated the same thing last Saturday as the 8-14 day chart was heading towards a Scandinavian high evolution. Sadly for coldies this did not progress and subsequent charts have downgraded any high building over Scandinavia.

The 8-14 day chart has though consistently hinted at some rise in pressure to our near east/southeast, but they also retain a strong upper flow across Scandinavia. I cannot see any Scandinavian high building whilst such a strong upper flow is expected.... Nor is there any sign of a southerly tracking jet , in fact the anomaly charts have reduced the chances of that by lifting further north the previously expected deep mid Atlantic low as Saturday chart above illustrates. The most recent charts suggest a lot flatter pattern, which suggest imho a very unsettled average outlook, possibly on the milder side of average with the usual NW/SE variation. IMHO theres no cold, nor pattern change or southerly tracking jet on these charts.  Of course, they might not be proven right, but i for one wont be putting any money on them being far from correct. So until they change, the previously described outlook remains in place.

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Nice to see the very cold uppers over Greenland finally easing back as the coldest air moves east, good run this, PV finally relenting its grip.

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-1-234.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Best run in a long time for snow potential with lows sliding / disrupting against the Scandi block with cold air in place

143BB514-07F1-4CEE-ADAA-F1223567C07C.png

A43AE81B-3936-40E0-A4E3-8439C76142EE.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, the best run in ages: not only the possibility of some long-awaited lowland snowfall (not seen a single flake so far!) but the early re-emergence of 20C uppers too:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Who'd bet against our seeing some quite stark and rapid fluctuations in temperature as Spring approaches?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Not sure I can recall such a tightly packed bunch across the GFS ens at this time of year before.  Nothing looking like breaching the -10 line either...  At least the signal is drier for the last 10 days of the month (at this stage!)

Edited by pdiddy
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
15 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Not sure I can recall such a tightly packed bunch across the GFS ens at this time of year before.  Nothing looking like breaching the -10 line either...  At least the signal is drier for the last 10 days of the month (at this stage!)

You might want to check the date on those ensembles ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Some support for the 06z on the ens for London, although at the colder end.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.17ed1eddca3688765117a118b992018c.gif

Anom show a better positioning of HP towards Scandi as opposed to slap bank over the UK, so moving in the right direction there.

gensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.562a75fff13875e23cf42b1aabd564b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Today's 06Z GEFS ensembles (does anyone know when the FV3 version comes on line?) offers very little support for the Operational run:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

Still early days of course, and there're enough positive vibes, from other sources, for us to maintain an air of optimism?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM clusters not having the best of times with height rises to the NE in the D11-D15. Compare clusters from two days ago to this morning's

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010700_348.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010900_300.

2 mornings ago, 50% of the runs built heights towards Norway. Now none do!

Lesson for me (for the umpteenth time) - do not put too much weight on height rises above our latitude beyond D7 ;)

So, currently, I'd say clusters 2/3/4 hold the weight for the end of the month as they have distinct similarities with the building of the Azores High through Europe. Cluster 5 could be wintry though with temporary surface northerlies, and cluster 1 with height anomalies both north and south could allow interesting localised wrap-arounds. So still not dead for a cold end to the month, but the "beast-ometer" is virtually zero this morning.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 hour ago, snowray said:

Anom show a better positioning of HP towards Scandi as opposed to slap bank over the UK, so moving in the right direction there.

gensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.562a75fff13875e23cf42b1aabd564b7.png

Again some other models showing that possible link up of heights (pacific and scandi) and possible split in the tpv naefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.11bf488e97c3ad7eeffb309069911109.png  cfsnh-0-420.thumb.png.273434a9ebb65dca8b170c3d9cf633b9.png (again I know that is the cfs) hopefully this signal grows over the next week or so of runs.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 hours ago, snowray said:

Some support for the 06z on the ens for London, although at the colder end.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.17ed1eddca3688765117a118b992018c.gif

Anom show a better positioning of HP towards Scandi as opposed to slap bank over the UK, so moving in the right direction there.

gensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.562a75fff13875e23cf42b1aabd564b7.png

Always keeping in mind of course that a weak positive anomaly over Scandinavia almost certainly does not correlate to a surface high cell there

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Always keeping in mind of course that a weak positive anomaly over Scandinavia almost certainly does not correlate to a surface high cell there

 

Yes but give it time Knocker, long way to go yet, more upgrades in the pipeline coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

GEFS still trucking nicely at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8. EC/EPS not been updated yet on the RMMs, but be interesting to see if it's still killing the MJO wave in 6 - which may explain the lack of amplification and appetite of building a ridge N over Northern Europe.

NCPE_phase_21m_small.thumb.gif.b549a00329c20e475c9da3689d3347b9.gif

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