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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being a little dull.....what does it show??

 

An amplified MJO heading into cold phases 7-8-1

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Always worth looking at jet stream profile forecasts for signs of possible pattern change. Gfs forecast showing a split flow with heights building inbetween around the 20th which ties in with 12z forecast 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
53 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just to add to the more upbeat mood in here

Screenshot_20200108-213302.png

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

Yes also curious, I know I'm like a stuck record, but a bit of an explanation would be really appreciated, thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

More amplification on the 18z up towards Scandi, can the high build and more importantly can we get an undercut? Lots of cold air to our NE waiting to pounce...

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfs-1-234.png

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway

 

2-3 weeks and we know more .....the charts are promising to see cold and easterlies - im still worried of that strong PV sign

image.thumb.png.124d077220c54de22b1fa71cc352e929.pngimage.thumb.png.b20fa9c3ec3be8614c4c8d40c15f6879.pngimage.thumb.png.8519026eae37908497b7f0d5c9da524a.png

Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

Because we see a transition from quite a zonal 6 - 10 chart (see attached) to a much drier 8 - 14 day chart which also gives more chance and indeed hope of a scandi high forming. Please note the words 'chance' and 'hope'. 

Screenshot_20200108-223903.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
15 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes also curious, I know I'm like a stuck record, but a bit of an explanation would be really appreciated, thanks. 

Please see my reply to Mr Holmes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!

gfseu-0-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!

gfseu-0-288.png

Important difference is the development of low heights over the med trough squeeze through scandi sending heights NW end result split jet flow..

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!

gfseu-0-288.png

It’s good the important thing is pressure has fallen to SE will not sink this ridge is pushing north not too dissimilar to 12z GFS really is going to town with pattern change to colder conditions day 10-16.

E7651737-93CC-4B81-9C10-FAFD01D939D5.thumb.png.6b250d5d323e6fe7f280a73a20fc3c36.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters hot summers
  • Location: North Oxfordshire

Latest fax chart for Monday shows a bit more movement in the Atlantic heading our way, let's hope this is a kick start to something more colder down the line

20200108_224351.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

P17 goes down the December 2010 route (when that section of PV dropped down across the UK) 1544977937_gensnh-17-1-384(1).thumb.png.6898cc966546d608644543f4b9057c01.png  certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities but GEFS seem keen on ridging and higher pressure from the Pacific side just the question if the higher pressure over our side can link up possibly splitting the tpv (think that is what GP was eluding to re bottom up split) gensnh-13-3-336.thumb.png.a9b19d743e19e29e7c6c0af578bb4da9.png  I cant seem to get the gif link working but if you run through the GEFS height anomalies you will see what I mean 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal Extremes!
  • Location: North London

For P17 to verify, we need a conveyor belt of LPs to cross into Scandinavia/W Russia, a very cold pool to develop and then the HP to develop NW and advect the very cold pool SW to us.

Quite a sequence!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

P17 goes down the December 2010 route (when that section of PV dropped down across the UK) 1544977937_gensnh-17-1-384(1).thumb.png.6898cc966546d608644543f4b9057c01.png  certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities but GEFS seem keen on ridging and higher pressure from the Pacific side just the question if the higher pressure over our side can link up possibly splitting the tpv (think that is what GP was eluding to re bottom up split) gensnh-13-3-336.thumb.png.a9b19d743e19e29e7c6c0af578bb4da9.png  I cant seem to get the gif link working but if you run through the GEFS height anomalies you will see what I mean 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

I see your P17 and I'll raise you P12 looks just about right for this winter so far.

gensnh-12-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

GFS keeps dishing out the eye candy and not in an outrageous timeframe lows diving southeast into Europe the catalyst, weak heights to north supporting this, also see this on ECM

2C6CCF29-1D17-4ED7-A78A-BC397FA31269.thumb.png.f15580fe29d93474310e7a3a1263cd0f.png952E8EC6-4654-4CDB-804C-8D91947CF6AE.thumb.png.9a4a78141b901774c0985b3f73576967.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Support for mid latitude block certainly growing following unsettled and stormy polar maritime, very intense HP here centred over N U.K. 1050mb! 18z GEFS had plenty in there bringing cold and dry conditions. I don’t think this suite is going to be an exception.

AAC9D1CB-465D-46C3-87AB-9021AB5A3A03.thumb.png.08acaef9b7e60abdca3e9d13e7c8240d.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
8 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Please see my reply to Mr Holmes. 

I think I can see your reasoning but the 8-14 NOAA has shown this 2-3 days ago then dropped it. If it keeps this and the 6-10 starts to pick up the signal for height rises in a similar place then your suggestion may well be along the right lines.

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