Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[igloo]

1 hour ago, PDM said:

With these mild temperatures, I'm tempted to get the washing line out of the shed already, Only put it away at the end of October

best of luck with that mate hanging washing out.it would take at least a fortnight to dry rain rain and more rain sadly

Edited January 7, 2020 by igloo

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - fairly flat I am afraid.  No sign of any amplification at all.  Euro / Bartlett High type set-up.

This suite certainly looks flatter in the extended than previous as the jet powers into scandi 

[damianslaw]

Worth looking at the upper air temperature forecasts, ECM showing quite a chilly atlantic flow for northern half of UK at least with sub 528 dam air at times, and signs the jet taking a more southerly path - so I wouldn't describe the outlook as especially mild for the northern half of the UK at least - limited long drawn SW airstream.

GFS keen on ridge development and amplification of the euro high - far reaches of model timescale.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well, what do we have here, then; an intense anticyclone in entirely the wrong place? Though one can't rule out a few stonkers within the ensembles. Obviously!

    

But, lest we forget, T+384 weather charts are only a little more reliable than the Trump Administration's mail service!

Nice naughty ‘capture’ Pete.....you willing to bet in it verifying?

 

BFTP

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 18z the most dire run I've ever seen for January 

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Evening all. I only have a few words to say today. Don't be too worried about what each run shows if it's cold and snow your after like me. The models are looking drastic for that. But I always say in weather and especially model watching it can and will change. Maybe not tomorrows 00z gfs or  even the ECM 12z tomorrow evening for example. Be patient and eventually and hopefully us coldies will get our wish. Before I go I would say I have massive respect for the posters in here. Some excellent information given at times. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Apart from possibly some fairly brief visits of cooler Polar Maritime air from the West, as models, especially the 12Z ECMWF, shows Low Pressure from the West trying to crash through further East to the North of the UK at times, it feels like Winter is having an identity crises at the moment. It’s like Winter has forgotten who its meant to be. 

Keeping the towel on the heating rail for now, but for those who want cold and snowy weather, the current outputs are like a Dominos Pizza that’s become all hard and mouldy.

Edited January 8, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Ali1977]

Overnight control run is a belter with -12c uppers, there are a few others that have interest too. Yep, it’s FI but maybe a glimmer of hope. 

 

Control, make that -16c uppers into north Scotland 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

T144 for all 3. Slight time difference as you would expect at that range but very windy to say the least.

[Duane S.]

Much better GEFS set this morning. Nothing special of course, just pretty good in the context of recent output.

I’m wondering if maybe the Control has it right (synopticly speaking) and height rises to the NE are a bit of a red herring in terms of a catalyst for a future potential cold spell. 

Should we be looking at a final third of January MJO phase 6 mid Atlantic ridge response I wonder?

Anyway, it would just be nice to see this increased amplification gain traction over f the coming days.

Edited January 8, 2020 by s4lancia

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Much better GEFS set this morning. Nothing special of course, just pretty good in the context of recent output.

I’m wondering if maybe the Control has it right (synopticly speaking) and height rises to the NE are a bit of a red herring in terms of a catalyst for a future potential cold spell. 

Should we be looking at a final third of January MJO phase 6 mid Atlantic ridge response I wonder?

Anyway, it would just be nice to see this increased amplification gain traction over f the coming days.

A good point, well made S4L

[SLEETY]

Utterly hopeless ecm again, these darn heights to the South, and all this cold air pouring out of Canada into the Atlantic Ocean is helping either, with regards to the strong jet stream. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by SLEETY

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Utterly hopeless ecm again, these darn heights to the South, and all this cold air pouring out of Canada into the Atlantic Ocean is helping either, with regards to the strong jet stream. 

ECM OP this morning was a bit out of kilter with the ensemble:



There's still a trend for a rise in pressure towards the last third of the month.

Zonal winds forecast to fall back, and AO trending back down from strongly positive:

 

Hopefully the raging zonality will calm as we head towards the end of the month.

[Jordan S]

Morning.

A wet evening and night to come for England and Wales some heavy bursts of rain at times from a developing low and as this pushes into northern England and perhaps southern Scotland then a risk of some mainly hill snow later tonight. some of this rain may push into northern Ireland, Turning windy for England and Wales with a risk of gales in exposure. 

After this area of rain clears into the north sea tomorrow morning another spell of heavy rain likely to move across the south during tomorrow evening. 

10-20mm widely falling altogether throughout this period perhaps upto 30mm in parts of the south. 

The trend for the next week to 10 days has not changed much since yesterday or indeed the last few day's next week starts stormy for all and Very wet then continuing unsettled thereafter possibly into next weekend, remaining mostly mild although with colder air in the Northwest at times the possibility of some snow mainly for Scotland and over hills but with a very mobile set up there will be drier and calmer interludes between low pressure systems.

Edited January 8, 2020 by jordan smith

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

Morning.

A wet evening and night to come for England and Wales some heavy bursts of rain at times from a developing low and as this pushes into northern England and perhaps southern Scotland then a risk of some mainly hill snow later tonight. some of this rain may push into northern Ireland, Turning windy for England and Wales with a risk of gales in exposure. 

After this area of rain clears into the north sea tomorrow morning another spell of heavy rain likely to move across the south during tomorrow evening. 

10-20mm widely falling altogether throughout this period perhaps upto 30mm in parts of the south. 

The trend for the next week to 10 days has not changed much since yesterday or indeed the last few day's next week starts stormy for all and Very wet then continuing unsettled thereafter possibly into next weekend, remaining mostly mild although with colder air in the Northwest at times the possibility of some snow mainly for Scotland and over hills but with a very mobile set up there will be drier and calmer interludes between low pressure systems.

Utterly vile then and typically inevitable... Its a shame isn't it then whenever albeit rarely I'll admit, colder options are suggested they seldom make it into the semi reliable let reliable. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Snowfish2

[Tim Bland]

What could possibly go wrong ...I’ll get my sledge ....

Edited January 8, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Methuselah]

What indeed!!

   

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters backed off the Scandi High idea again - what we have now is fair confidence in the D12-D15 period of a strong High based close to the UK. 

Could be quite a cold and dry end to the month away from NW areas.

[legritter]

Hi gang   ,i am more confident today that things are gradually  very slowly becoming more Wintry for the UK .a couple of days ago i did say that there was a possible that Atlantic lows would move on a more southerly track and that i was hoping we would see also lows moving south east .not rocket science i must admit , but I'm sure something to get our attention and may be cheer us all up .Gfs is sniffing out the possibility of high pressure to our n east in extended outlook, and Ecm showing an angry North Atlantic attack, but positioning of lows past 6 days will be very critical. Exeter yesterday hints at a cooling down ,wo der what today will bring. Some newsworthy weather on its way and not all mild mush .and its only jan 8th  , take care gang cheers .

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What indeed!!

   

Thats a cracker, if that verified the we would be looking at a cold February.

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters backed off the Scandi High idea again - what we have now is fair confidence in the D12-D15 period of a strong High based close to the UK. 

Could be quite a cold and dry end to the month away from NW areas.

Yes, GEFS mean has been similar for  couple of days. The 06z anomaly after D10:

Whether that can oscillate like the Pacific high has been doing and maybe send wedges north or even amplify like some members suggest it is too early to judge, though cannot rule out.

This does look like it will verify in some way or other and the GEFS offer all the options though no specifics of course, at this range. There still remains the option of a two-wave attack, with the Pacific high now looking to show up more on the ensembles. So still hopeful of developments as we approach or enter February with the usual caveats, disclaimers and small print denials.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

 

What could possibly go wrong ...I’ll get my sledge ....

Oh look, the M4! 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats a cracker, if that verified the we would be looking at a cold February.

That's a very bold statement, feb...given that, even if it were to verify, its future evolution could go in any number of different directions?

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

That's a very bold statement, feb...given that, even if it were to verify, its future evolution could go in any number of different directions?

That was my thought too General. There is no low pressure in the Med so the ridge would more than likely just collapse South East.

Edited January 8, 2020 by mountain shadow

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That was my thought too General. There is no low pressure in the Med so the ridge would more than likely just collapse South East.

Or it could be the starting point to something more interesting?