Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Man With Beard]

46 minutes ago, Dennis said:

some ideas to a change

 

There was a much better attempt at a Scandi High on the ECM ensembles this morning:

On cluster 1, much better concentration of height anomalies over Scandinavia, and no height anomalies over Europe (you'd prefer negative anomalies to be sure it wasn't showing a sceuro high). On studying the individual ensembles, not many genuine Scandi highs are shown, with a clustering of runs with high pressure close to the north sea - a selection of Scandi highs, Sceuro highs, UK highs, even a few to the north of the UK - and, I think for the first time, a little cluster within the larger cluster or runs that bring a cold pool through central Europe towards the UK. 

Something like cluster 3 still the favourite, in truth, but more movement towards cluster 1 this morning, certainly. Regardless of position, a very strong high on most runs, notably.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

There was a much better attempt at a Scandi High on the ECM ensembles this morning:

On cluster 1, much better concentration of height anomalies over Scandinavia, and no height anomalies over Europe (you'd prefer negative anomalies to be sure it wasn't showing a sceuro high). On studying the individual ensembles, not many genuine Scandi highs are shown, with a clustering of runs with high pressure close to the north sea - a selection of Scandi highs, Sceuro highs, UK highs, even a few to the north of the UK - and, I think for the first time, a little cluster within the larger cluster or runs that bring a cold pool through central Europe towards the UK. 

Something like cluster 3 still the favourite, in truth, but more movement towards cluster 1 this morning, certainly. Regardless of position, a very strong high on most runs, notably.

Gfs would tie in with cluster 1. 

[PDM]

Today's 120 fax chart has the low I mentioned yesterday over the channel has now disappeared! And pressure is a lot higher! Just shows the change in just 24hrs.

Top chart is today's 120hr and bottom is yesterday's 120hr....What a difference a day makes

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, PDM said:

Today's 120 fax chart has the low I mentioned yesterday over the channel has now disappeared! And pressure is a lot higher! Just shows the change in just 24hrs.

Top chart is today's 120hr and bottom is yesterday's 120hr....What a difference a day makes

One is a forecast for Friday, the other is Saturday. You need the +96hr chart, not 120. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Jordan S]

28 minutes ago, PDM said:

Today's 120 fax chart has the low I mentioned yesterday over the channel has now disappeared! And pressure is a lot higher! Just shows the change in just 24hrs.

Top chart is today's 120hr and bottom is yesterday's 120hr....What a difference a day makes

The low you mention is still shown.

Midnight Thursday..

Midday Thursday..

Midnight Friday..

Edited January 7, 2020 by jordan smith

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, PDM said:

Today's 120 fax chart has the low I mentioned yesterday over the channel has now disappeared! And pressure is a lot higher! Just shows the change in just 24hrs.

Top chart is today's 120hr and bottom is yesterday's 120hr....What a difference a day makes

 

 

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

One is a forecast for Friday, the other is Saturday. You need the +96hr chart, not 120. 

Today's T120 Fax chart will be coming out later this evening. Think that might be yesterdays and the day before's Fax charts.

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEM 0z

 

 

GEM 12z

GEM Still showing differing position of high pressure from other models.

Will be interesting to see ECM shortly. 

 

[snowray]

GFS 12z anom, this is a good as it gets.

 

12z ens for London

And Edinburgh

 

Lot's of snow chances for Scotland there.

Edit...12z

Edited January 7, 2020 by snowray

[Purga]

EC monthly update today showing incredible mildness throughout all 5 weeks for all of Europe.

Couldn't get worse if it tried!

[bluearmy]

the consistency on the GEFS is the lack of direction - so many variables ….one or two would be interesting for coldies …...methinks the relative consistency of the ec and gfs ops are the concern for coldies though - the pattern continues to flatten having flattered to deceive with WAA and ridging …..

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, Purga said:

EC monthly update today showing incredible mildness throughout all 5 weeks for all of Europe.

Couldn't get worse if it tried!

Oh dear, now that is really vile, shouldn't be allowed showing filth like that.

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the consistency on the GEFS is the lack of direction - so many variables ….one or two would be interesting for coldies …...methinks the relative consistency of the ec and gfs ops are the concern for coldies though - the pattern continues to flatten having flattered to deceive with WAA and ridging …..

We are going to need a scandy high to disrupt the Atlantic jet IMO-

Heights to the west/north west are not possible

 

[mountain shadow]

24 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh dear, now that is really vile, shouldn't be allowed showing filth like that.

The Polar Vortex is still roaring away and still strengthening and whilst it does we have little chance of proper cold.

Any model showing cold in the next 3 weeks should not be taken seriously. 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The Polar Vortex is still roaring away and still strengthening and whilst it does we have little chance of proper cold.

Any model showing cold in the next 3 weeks should not be taken seriously. 

Guess we had better find something else to do for the next couple of weeks then, I know, I'll paint the living room, after all this is getting worse than watching paint dry.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Polar Vortex is still roaring away and still strengthening and whilst it does we have little chance of proper cold.

Any model showing cold in the next 3 weeks should not be taken seriously. 

Pretty amazing, any models showing cold should not be taken seriously!! But if they are showing mild.. Then it's bound to be right! Had to have a little laugh regarding those EC 46 weeklies as well, 5 weeks of mild.... This time last year, they were showing 5 weeks of cold!! Then you read the Exeter update who just about mention every weather type going for the next few weeks, and you kind of draw to the conclusion off.... Does anybody actually know! Some deep FI cold building out East on some of those 12z ensembles... Let the cold build and the snow will follow..

[igloo]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We are going to need a scandy high to disrupt the Atlantic jet IMO-

Heights to the west/north west are not possible

 

don't think any heights are possible anywhere with a scandi high a fantasy with a AO set to reach +5 and NAO looking positive for at least January and that's bear minimum

Edited January 7, 2020 by igloo

[IDO]

A continuation on the 12z of what has been showing up for a few runs now way out in FI. Nothing to report of any worth pre-D14 so something to muse about. The mean euro high anomaly re-centring to a mean UK high-anomaly:

This can be seen in the individual GEFS in some form or another in a large cluster. No specifics as to where we may land and obviously at that range may be gone tomorrow. However, assuming status quo with the upcoming dynamics, it does seem reasonable; a high further north in the UK sector, though may need some help to get it further than mid-lat.

The Pacific high is relaxing from D9 on the mean/op so that should enable local height rises if correct. Still no sign of any wave forcing so we can assume the tPV will not be put under pressure; five ensembles do some damage but that is what I would say is noise, until it proves otherwise (all triggered by the Pacific high forcing). So a watching brief on upstream to see where things may go past D12. Zero hope of any blocking before then. 

[northwestsnow]

Its difficult viewing at the moment.

GFS/EC are classic +NAO with most likely a very +AO in tandem.

I'm reading a few tweets suggestive of a SSW in Feb, possibly late Feb, which is as  useful as giving a bald man a comb as far as i'm concerned but maybe others would feel differently..

Still hoping for a change, even a mirage at day 10, such is the boringness of it..

[mb018538]

32 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Pretty amazing, any models showing cold should not be taken seriously!! But if they are showing mild.. Then it's bound to be right! Had to have a little laugh regarding those EC 46 weeklies as well, 5 weeks of mild.... This time last year, they were showing 5 weeks of cold!! Then you read the Exeter update who just about mention every weather type going for the next few weeks, and you kind of draw to the conclusion off.... Does anybody actually know! Some deep FI cold building out East on some of those 12z ensembles... Let the cold build and the snow will follow..

We can hope for some cold, but everyone knows once mild is locked in its harder to shift and much more likely to verify. People have been posting charts showing cold weather in FI for 2 months the now and none of them have come off. Especially when all the long range forecasts pre winter went for exactly what we are getting and have nailed it. Our next hope is a bit of stretching up in the strat with some warming towards the months end. 

[Ross90]

Plenty of stormy weather on the way if the gfs is to be believed next Monday into Tuesday and then again at 10 days, not going happen but it'd be an 'interesting' day across the north if it did...

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Ross90

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its difficult viewing at the moment.

GFS/EC are classic +NAO with most likely a very +AO in tandem.

I'm reading a few tweets suggestive of a SSW in Feb, possibly late Feb, which is as  useful as giving a bald man a comb as far as i'm concerned but maybe others would feel differently..

Still hoping for a change, even a mirage at day 10, such is the boringness of it..

An SSW mid Feb, with a QTR could be beneficial mate... Think 2018. And no need for the bald remark, I'm like right said Fred, and would love a comb.. Couldn't resist mate. 

[Anthony Burden]

Once again after a very Mobile changeable period,GFS keen on bringing the high pressure back

will it be able to stop these very active low pressure systems.Thats of course if it happens and what 

orientation it takes,we can only hope for a cold spell be it dry or not.

 

 

 

 

[len]

48 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Pretty amazing, any models showing cold should not be taken seriously!! But if they are showing mild.. Then it's bound to be right! Had to have a little laugh regarding those EC 46 weeklies as well, 5 weeks of mild.... This time last year, they were showing 5 weeks of cold!! Then you read the Exeter update who just about mention every weather type going for the next few weeks, and you kind of draw to the conclusion off.... Does anybody actually know! Some deep FI cold building out East on some of those 12z ensembles... Let the cold build and the snow will follow..

I understand why you might like to regularly post cherry-picked perturbations, but inexperienced lurkers here may not qute understand that you can ALWAYS find whatever you want somewhere amongst the perturbations.

Instead of cherry-picking only what you wish for, why not try random-selection, or offset your choice-morsels with the "worst perturbations"?

[Timmytour]

39 minutes ago, len said:

I understand why you might like to regularly post cherry-picked perturbations, but inexperienced lurkers here may not qute understand that you can ALWAYS find whatever you want somewhere amongst the perturbations.

Instead of cherry-picking only what you wish for, why not try random-selection, or offset your choice-morsels with the "worst perturbations"?

Feel free to do it yourself Len.

 

I appreciated Matt's post myself

[mulzy]

Ext EPS - fairly flat I am afraid.  No sign of any amplification at all.  Euro / Bartlett High type set-up.