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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is the best part of the GFS run - lovely hemispheric pattern & nice scandi ridge with cold backing Westwards.

image.thumb.png.dd53a000d89d342a0c2cc8ca39e5b2ae.png

Snap!

Great time of the year for a cold spell too, last week of Jan, first week of Feb, traditionally the coldest point in the British winter. Surely the weather gods will give us a break!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

yes the warmer it gets the colder it will get once all the bottled up air in the Arctic explodes out,gfs leading the way,we hope

Where does it usually explode out though?  Usually North America . I wouldn't be surprised whatever to see north America get a big cold spell before this winter is out ,while we can only look with envy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Lots of cold there building up in Eastern Europe waiting to pounce.

 

gfseu-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a very likely T+384 GFS 12Z finish methinks...the only thing that remains constant throughout, is that that ghastly tPV is still relatively unmoved?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A wee bit of room for optimism, though!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

gens_panel_fvz6.png

Not hard to see why where the high goes is important to what we get. I’ll take 12

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire/Malatya, Turkey
  • Location: Hertfordshire/Malatya, Turkey

One of the guys on TWO is saying he has never seen such mild ensembles in 20 years , it's a remarkable persistence of pattern , and it seems it happens more and more often .

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

I know it doesn’t hold a lot of weight in here but the CFS monthly does reflect well what the GFS & ECM have been hinting at. Weak ridge to our north east and the euro high not so dominant. 

8518BD7B-F0AA-4709-84F9-5A90BE114567.png

B9E63023-B90D-43F5-82AE-A5F0FB835C94.png

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Probably will happen to late or it will be another March event if and it’s a big if it comes off and keeps heading down.

CD4ECCF2-0206-40EC-9F95-7EB0B2648EC5.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

What's this Operational imposter up to?

image.thumb.png.a0997da854e7cfdfb63487ec9e8eab00.pngimage.thumb.png.c02cb516da4a9c9d6125e66264acaaf4.png

Something along the lines of P12 maybe but a bit later on?

image.thumb.png.a03a62141e3bf9387a8958a89de71c5e.pngimage.thumb.png.e67f30dd2ee6617c1150f93ab4774498.png

Can we stomach any more teases & let downs?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Here are the big four at 144 hrs in descending order as regards to amplitude

ecm/ukmo/gem and gfs

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.d958ec6499e97d32078aef2f8de0cb0c.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.a6a82a35307f85bfd662c321036ca59c.gifgemnh-0-144.thumb.png.c593979a5ca35d20134163d45001bae7.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.0752eabd2d2f1d8befc3d756069f8ef2.png

the ecm is the most amplified and further west with the trough out west,could be a good run this.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ecm turns out to be a horror show after 144 hrs but i wouldn't take anything as gospel past that time-frame anyway

the models are rubbing salt into the already open and cut wounds and we are going to need a big bandage to stop this dross

i am hoping the models are overplaying the strength of the pv out to our NW and underplaying the ridge to our East in future runs

what we want to see is more of an amplifying trough out west to force the ridge further north,the gem did this towards the end of the run

so keep your Prozac's in the cupboard and your toys and dummies in place for now,and lets see what happens.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire/Malatya, Turkey
  • Location: Hertfordshire/Malatya, Turkey
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm turns out to be a horror show after 144 hrs but i wouldn't take anything as gospel past that time-frame anyway

the models are rubbing salt into the already open and cut wounds and we are going to need a big bandage to stop this dross

i am hoping the models are overplaying the strength of the pv out to our NW and underplaying the ridge to our East in future runs

what we want to see is more of an amplifying trough out west to force the ridge further north,the gem did this towards the end of the run

so keep your Prozac's in the cupboard and your toys and dummies in place for now,and lets see what happens.

 

Yes , a very mild run taking us to middle of Jan , very well set Euro High 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I think this evening's EC at ten days is the worst chart I've seen this winter.incredible heights across all central and southern europe.granted it's in fi but you wouldn't bet against it the way this winter is shaping up

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
1 minute ago, swfc said:

I think this evening's EC at ten days is the worst chart I've seen this winter.incredible heights across all central and southern europe.granted it's in fi but you wouldn't bet against it the way this winter is shaping up

"Shaping Up" more like set to continue, given the recent models, everything is still an IF....

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Finally ECM moves closer in line with other models and its mean at D10:

1892152942_ECH1-240(26).thumb.gif.39779414be274a70ef1d3ae282423866.gif GFS587251986_gfsnh-0-240(18).thumb.png.55ae9b4e67ebd32511d4afd3c5207e01.png GEM>1903632209_gemnh-0-240(6).thumb.png.144abf310f6fc613bed0c0f2946d7729.png

It is a pain when it fails to get the algorithms right at that range. The above three models, a variation on a theme for our sector. The GFS makes more of the Pacific high and seeing post D10 on the 12z run I suspect that will be dropped shortly. So more likely a mishmash of the GEM and ECM? Not sure either offer a quick way to cold from there, so where we were, no UK snow (ASL) likely before the last week of January the most probable outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yep steve ive hardly posted in the last few weeks either!!unless something changes significantly thats me done for the winter as well!!this would be the earliest i have ever signed off!!its different if there were legit signs of a cold spell even in fi but there is absolute zilch!!!!we are in dire straits!!!!like i said the only way we are getting a cold snowy period then it will have to be out the blue and freaky!!dont see it happening!!

All the regulars knew when we saw the pattern change in late December that the current pattern is a 4-6 week write off, that is why I was disappointed the strat-trop linkage was so late, prime time tPV domination is a winter killer if in January. More so as we missed out on the cold shots in Nov/Dec. Hopefully by late January we should see changes and although we are then in late winter we hopefully will see something cold. By then the bottled cold will be added value and assuming that we get more than scraps this time, even a short 2-3 day cold event could be memorable!

The D10 ECM mean closer to the GFS op and mean than the ECM op:

1706003427_EDH1-240(4).thumb.gif.f2e6c6139c8a924b3b5480eec670d06f.gif 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

When scanning through the last couple of pages, I saw two things which suggested desperation: 384 and CFS . . .

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Winter 46/47 had a number of colder spells though, from beginning of that Winter. 

Was not around then, but yes looking at the historical charts seems to have been spells of colder periods but think January of 1947 was in the mild category . What I was trying to highlight was the similar synoptic set up as is of today. However, probably another Feb 1947 is very unlikely looking at the longer term out -puts.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
54 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Big @Steve Murr having his annual toys out the pram moment I see.  (See you in a couple of weeks mate) 

I would be very interested to hear the thoughts of @Tamara if she is browsing/lurking? She has called this Winter spot on so far...would be great to see what she thinks the second half will deliver? 
 

Latest ECM showing some wintry weather over the hills/mountains of Scotland. (You know the outlook is bad when I’m wheeling this out! )

1E2B899E-A270-4643-94F5-A29BEBAEA8EF.thumb.png.a69ae7f325f5cbca59d9b205d9386785.pngCCC57A61-07C3-4583-8EC2-1AB31328C4D0.thumb.png.bf1464e9f769726f0d2db557b5874cb9.png9278A53D-91FB-495C-857C-A6E77AE3CC8E.thumb.png.2bd7a0815c1ae3bf16b01e5395716a35.png9C786F3A-7FF6-4AAE-806F-22FB1391FF37.thumb.png.f89f2b6bf1a07ae2dd1360abb11f0e62.png727FFFDB-BBDF-42DC-89AC-0A972FBA6B07.thumb.png.44faaf31238129a23d03ecf124d7bcea.png8243C9F1-0C91-45A9-801E-C4C59C050A94.thumb.png.84c53217308a180ff8d44bf7e71c558a.png
 

It has been a crap Winter so far as we all know but the only way is up if you are a cold/snow lover! ☃️ (It cant get any worse)

Everytime we have a poor start to winter I try to remind myself of that 47 spell... A long shot, but anythings possible. Yes... Very much dire output at present, but 10 day's is going some, and I still feel it will be the final 3rd of this month before we see a pattern change, perhaps helped by a change in the Indian ocean! The extended ens out to day 14 don't show anything to get excited about, but like I say... Perhaps the final 3rd is what we should keep an eye on. Yes it would be good to hear from Tamara... She is still around, but currently alot to deal with... Hopefully she will be back firing come spring or summer.. Keep the faith good folks. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Well we seem to get more snow in springtime now anyway,so i’m sure SM will be back for that.But this pattern will break,and when it does some experts think extreme cold will follow,because of so much cold bottled up in the Arctic,Greenland recorded its coldest ever temp of minus 66c ! 2 days ago

 

So you can understand why some think extreme cold,will flood South later on this winter,but really awful chartsf for cold,for the time being...

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