Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Purga]

39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 4 please !

I wouldn't kick P19 out of bed either .

There are a few more albeit a minority of runs showing similar if not so 'tasty' blocking.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

This all looks very interesting on the 06Z GFS run at +384h

First the 500Hpa Temperatures

Finally some WWA showing up on the OP run. Unfortunately it is 384 hours away. Good to see a corresponding cold pool pushing down to the east of the WWA. If only the cold pool was as deep as the one on the USA/Canadian side

The 850hpa temperatures look just as enticing if you hope for a cold spell

Nice to finally see the -5 to -15 temps showing up to our east. All we need now is that WWA to "blow up" the high over Scandinavia and push those cold temps towards the UK. Envious of how much colder the 850hpa temps are to the west and that may be the undoing of any chance of cold.

The North Pole view of the 500hpa temps is also interesting

It not only shows a push of WWA near the UK and western Europe but also another push from the Pacific side too. Looks like the polar vortex is getting pulled apart. If that continues then we could eventually tap into that very cold eastern part of the vortex if pressure rises over the pole and Scandinavia too.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The 06Z OP tantalises with a small level warming from the North American side which weakens the TPV, sends a lobe over to Siberia and that in turn encourages height rises to the NE.

It might be our way out of the current mild and benign rut but we need a lot to drop right and for some consistency as we approach mid month.

I'm fractionally less pessimistic than I was yesterday.

[SqueakheartLW]

Spot the difference

24th Feb 2018

3rd Jan 2020 GFS 06Z +384h Chart

We all know what happened a couple of days later don't we?

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Spot the difference

24th Feb 2018

3rd Jan 2020 GFS 06Z +384h Chart

We all know what happened a couple of days later don't we?

The difference is the low pressure over central Southern Europe...look at southern Italy

[SqueakheartLW]

34 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Spot the difference

24th Feb 2018

3rd Jan 2020 GFS 06Z +384h Chart

We all know what happened a couple of days later don't we?

 

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The difference is the low pressure over central Southern Europe...look at southern Italy

There is a very slight weak low pressure just over North Africa. May develop and push north a little if the high pressure pushes further into Scandinavia.

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

The 06Z OP tantalises with a small level warming from the North American side which weakens the TPV, sends a lobe over to Siberia and that in turn encourages height rises to the NE.

It might be our way out of the current mild and benign rut but we need a lot to drop right and for some consistency as we approach mid month.

I'm fractionally less pessimistic than I was yesterday.

i agree we have some warmth around the pole not experienced enough to suggest its a ssw but id thought maybe a major wave breaking event you can see that the gfs op has the restrengthening of the polar vortex.

gefs has a warmer stratosphere  at the end with a more pronounced displaced polar vortex,

the gfs op is by far the worst out of the bunch.

and the jma pretty much more bullish than the op gfs and closer to the gefs.

i've not looked at the ecm developments in the 10hpa level.

[cheeky_monkey]

looks like some brutal cold heading this way in the next 2 weeks..forecast is for temps to be 20c below normal..which would give day time highs close to -30c and night time lows at -40c

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looks like some brutal cold heading this way in the next 2 weeks..forecast is for temps to be 20c below normal..which would give day time highs close to -30c and night time lows at -40c

That’s more like it!

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s more like it!

luckily looks like i will be coming home for the last 2 weeks of January so might just dodge a bullet  or bring the cold back with me?

Edited January 3, 2020 by cheeky_monkey

[Methuselah]

Tuesday's looking nae bad!?

    

As the saying goes: get the 12C T850s out the way first, and then the snow will follow!

[swfc]

35 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Tuesday's looking nae bad!?

    

As the saying goes: get the 12C T850s out the way first, and then the snow will follow!

Yes a wedge makes a sledge!!12 z GFS is just an euro slug extension .poor imo

[SMU]

UKMO / GEM & the GEFS starting to look good this afternoon with more & more signs of higher amplification -

[Tim Bland]

Indeed SM the GEM looks good. Don’t forget folks that GEM is currently outperforming GFS according to the verification stats 

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Tim Bland

[snowray]

Well by the end of the run we might just start to drag in some those colder uppers that are over the south eastern Med and North Africa if we are lucky. I think I'll go back to sleep.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed SM the GEM looks good. Don’t forget folks that GEM is currently outperforming GFS according to the verification stats 

Fingers crossed that tonights ECM runs with the GEM and not the GFS.

[SMU]

Charts of the winter so far > Who cares its miles away > Brings back so many snow memories

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Charts of the winter so far > Who cares its miles away > Brings back so many snow memories

P16 Steve

we are going to need a lot more members like  that but it's looking a bit poor in terms of the ens.

 

[Methuselah]

Gore blimey, guvnor...I fink I must be seein' fings! If this is a 'good' GFS, don't bovver showin' me any badduns!

    

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Gore blimey, guvnor...I fink I must be seein' fings! If this is a 'good' GFS, don't bovver showin' me any badduns!

    

Exactly, its vile!

[Jeremy Shockey]

Nice to see the Jet doing something different ( other than barrelling straight through us ) on the GEM 12 z t240 .

Lets hope we see something similar from the ECM 12z later  ( rather than following the GFS path ) 

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I don't get why you are mentioning  El Niño, solar activity etc and can't understand why this winter has been poor (for cold weather fans)  but yet  totally missing what has just happened recently from which parts of Australia and the countries of East Africa bordering the Indian Ocean suffering because of the Indian Ocean Dipole and how intense it has been. 

I have already suggested this to you.

 

 

 

8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It depends what your expectation of what is a typical winter for the UK.  I look at it this way; severe cold dominated winters of the likes of early 1940s, 1947, 1962-63 and 1978-79 is what I would call the exception rather than the norm for the UK, and more recently I would put 2009-10 and Dec 2010 in the category as something that is clearly not going to happen on a frequent basis; these are winter spells that just pop up occasionally in the UK when we get lucky and everything in the weather patterns falls into a favourable place for long enough. 

I would say that the typical average winter in the UK develops with spells of mild zonal weather punctuated by some colder polar maritime zonality and a significant cold spell for one to two weeks of it.  Most recently I would call something like 2017-18 as close to a typical winter for the UK, and 2012-13 as the last one with more cold weather in it than is average.

To me in the last 30 odd years winters like 88-89, 89-90, 97-98 esp Feb 1998, Jan / Feb 2002, 06-07, 07-08, 13-14, Dec 2015, Feb 2019 are just the warm equivalents of the cold extremes above, and certainly not the norm for the UK, and the last 30 odd years has had so many stinker periods of winter like these mentioned above.

I do not see how events in the Indian Ocean which are thousands of miles away from where the UK's weather ever comes from can have an effect on weather in our small part of the world.  Most of the UK's weather comes from the west in the form of either tropical or polar maritime air, and on occasion from the north (Arctic maritime) or the east (Polar continental).  I do not ever think it has happened before that the UK has got its weather from the Indian Ocean part of the world, thousands of miles to the south-east of us.

[snowray]

33 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

I do not see how events in the Indian Ocean which are thousands of miles away from where the UK's weather ever comes from can have an effect on weather in our small part of the world.  Most of the UK's weather comes from the west in the form of either tropical or polar maritime air, and on occasion from the north (Arctic maritime) or the east (Polar continental).  I do not ever think it has happened before that the UK has got its weather from the Indian Ocean part of the world, thousands of miles to the south-east of us.

IOD-ENSO interaction creating SST anomalies that can produce a super El Nino in the Pacific, this effects the weather around the world, mainly in the tropics but the extra energy inevitably creates higher temperatures globally and this ends up effecting us too I guess.

Edited January 3, 2020 by snowray

[Erdem]

56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Charts of the winter so far > Who cares its miles away > Brings back so many snow memories

Last winter I think those charts were at day 8 or so - and they still didn't happen . In SE Europe once the colder snowier weather is at that range you can be sure it's coming 

[North-Easterly Blast]

18 minutes ago, snowray said:

IOD-ENSO interaction creating SST anomalies that can produce a super El Nino in the Pacific, this effects the weather around the world, mainly in the tropics but the extra energy inevitably creates higher temperatures globally and this ends up effecting us too I guess.

There is not currently an El Nino present.