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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op not having anything to do with the ECM trend of last night .

Very flat right upto day ten .

However the UKMO at day 6 is more amplified upstream . The key aspect upstream is how far south that deepish low near Newfoundland digs south and becomes absorbed into the main troughing into the Atlantic this downstream helps to push a ridge further ne.

We need as much energy digging as far south in the mid Atlantic to force that ridge sufficiently north .

The GEM shows some support for last nights ECM trend and this mornings UKMO also .

The ECM is out soon, if that sides with those then just perhaps we might see something a bit more interesting develop.

There’d still be a long way to go from there but a small chance is better than zip which is what the GFS op dishes out this morning .

Not going the way we would want. 

F75B8E4E-EDEA-496D-B30E-C4E5A9FE986A.png

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We can see the dynamic of this pressure rise to our east. The T150 chart:

 gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.6991fae002afbef42f5078c7c38f3349.png

HP cells running the parallels from the Pacific to our sector and bumping up against the upper trough. The forces interact and the block causes a pressure rise somewhere in Europe. On the GFS 0z as such:

anim_wqq6.gif

That ever-present Pacific High of last year did a similar synoptic keeping a HP close to the UK. The Pacific High this time is displaced further east possibly explaining why the sympathetic ridge/height rise is further east?

This is clearly not tropical forcing and so any wave notions are going to be subdued and this would likely mean the tPV can still remain strong within these mechanics. From memory the UK high was a MLB and ECM did at times model it it go higher but was mostly wrong. The models do struggle with this type of setup and ECM along with UKMO will over do the rises so worth being wary of their more extreme charts. However, saying all that, there is a modicum of hope that something may develop down the line.

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Another day.....another set of runs going nowhere...

image.thumb.png.0056e4ab5c8de9d602bd3c4993078a0e.pngimage.thumb.png.da442fca5913f5b96e230a5e46fb4836.pngimage.thumb.png.305f0a2aeff5f14f3c0384fa976a0edd.png

Above average right out to day 15. A lack of any rogue cold ensemble members. I only like to look a couple of weeks ahead as things can and do change quickly, so the last third of January is still up for grabs, albeit with very low chances of anything baring fruit.


 

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Posted (edited)

Morning all, although the ops look grim this morning, the extended ensemble means of both 00z GFS and EC out to day 15 still entertain the idea of ridging over Scandi and digging deep troughing over Atlantic toward mid-month. GEFS day 15 below,:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9305600.thumb.png.55b79645aabcdf4cbcb91d32d05040d2.png

however, even if we get to this situation, can we get any decent cold around the high, Norway broke it's own and Scandinavia's highest winter temp record with 19C yesterday, so really need to see a cool down of NE Europe, though it can happen quickly in Jan / Feb.

Other issue could be the high is too far east and we get a not particularly cold SE flow.

But worth keeping up hope of height rises to the NE second half of Jan

Edited by Nick F

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Posted (edited)

In terms of subtle signs of high pressure ridging north to Scandinavia the Ecm shows a subtle sign of a rise in pressure over and to the north of the UK by day 10 it would be a drier outlook but that would be unlikely to last as you can see low pressure systems are putting pressure on this and this is 10 days away so merely for interest purposes at the moment. 

Ecm.. ūüĎá

IMG_20200103_081509.thumb.jpg.05ed95923d7111c6bbf213ebb5b53733.jpg

Gem for the same time frame below shows high pressure building over the uk but attempting to ridge towards Scandinavia but as you can see low pressure systems are very much in control to the north of the UK and push the ridge away with the high then settling over and to the east of the UK bringing a gentle southeasterly wind. 

399652448_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_192(2).thumb.jpg.b49d47a210e2031eaf2315d87e6f6b1c.jpg

570281238_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_210(1).thumb.jpg.9bffbecd2086874550bbb9f651c892a2.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_222.thumb.jpg.eb1cf634dcf625c702853900980e6e60.jpg

1524498763_EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_240(2).thumb.jpg.485cfaa79da44f8266f233ac85b70181.jpg

GFS ensembles the mode shows the rise in pressure to the east by day 10 but this is at that stage a mild synoptic pattern and an unsettled one especially so compared to Ecm and Gem with the wettest weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland and mild perhaps very mild at times. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_mode_192.thumb.jpg.a7ca486967c4f0e024b2006d8fc33016.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_mode_216.thumb.jpg.5a0a594dcf73700eeda951738e38443e.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_mode_240.thumb.jpg.bb5c29df6cb5b97b3be889f9b8ac4828.jpg

The most likely scenario atm towards and around day 10 is for high pressure to build close to southern parts of England and just to the east of the UK slowing the progression of Atlantic low pressure systems and moving them northwards for a time with very unsettled weather for northern parts even stormy on occasion at first in the next few days with still unsettled conditions further south but longer drier spells more likely especially by days 7-10 from now so around 10th-13th. 

Edited by jordan smith

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55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another day.....another set of runs going nowhere...

image.thumb.png.0056e4ab5c8de9d602bd3c4993078a0e.pngimage.thumb.png.da442fca5913f5b96e230a5e46fb4836.pngimage.thumb.png.305f0a2aeff5f14f3c0384fa976a0edd.png

Above average right out to day 15. A lack of any rogue cold ensemble members. I only like to look a couple of weeks ahead as things can and do change quickly, so the last third of January is still up for grabs, albeit with very low chances of anything baring fruit.


 

Yep. It's pretty relentless right now.

The wettest autumn on record (hardly typical Mr Geordiesnow) is being followed by the most Atlantic-dominated winter that I can ever recall. The jet is ridiculously powerful.

So far, that is. Perhaps it will abate. Meanwhile, we continue to batten down the hatches.

2140613083_Screenshot2020-01-03at08_26_51.thumb.png.ebd0cf25fd1523b43b936b8d69901ca3.png

2073327018_Screenshot2020-01-03at08_27_39.thumb.png.1b1261a46bd4cae9c1cafddf156a531c.png

 

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Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

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15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

I look at this slightly differently, in that we never expect a cold, snowy dominated winter because it’s certainly not our default.  Trying to find a reason for not having a non-typical winter is next to impossible to do, or perhaps pretty simple depending how you look at it.  
 

The GEM output actually looks ok, nice and settled for most of the UK, a bit mild perhaps but a darn sight better than cold rain. 

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I don't think we should looking for any cold in the next ten to fourteen days, but just for the building blocks.

There are indications in the extended of the Atlantic becoming a little more meridonial which may allow for Scandi height rises towards the end of the month and this may tie in with a favorable MJO.

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Posted (edited)

Good morning all.:hi:

Could we see a new January all-time high being set, next week? Touch-and-go I'd say:ūü§Ē

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, as MS says above, there's no sign of any cold weather, for the next 10-days at least:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And who can rule out a resurgence of unseasonal warmth coming our way, from the South?:shok:

Edited by General Cluster

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Compared to the GFS 00Z run, the 06Z is a bit more pronounced with the ridging to the East of the UK for Sunday 12th January.

00Z GFS

37A9C26B-155D-43D1-96A7-5AA07693FB91.thumb.png.b7f213cce01d0ae7608403f811fd5790.png

06Z GFS

30B55E7C-2FE9-46AB-B4B3-5A330BB63817.thumb.png.1d94c81dc2bef03470ce2f05c7038ce5.png

00Z run was a bit more flatter. Probably won’t amount to much and likely just a variation of a theme. 

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^^^ I have noticed the GFS 06z has a tendency to go OTT with the shredding of the tPV way out in FI, seen it last year and already obvious this. Not saying it is impossible, but another signal to be wary of on the 06z's. Last three 06z FI charts:

1687036149_gfsnh-0-360(3).thumb.png.b70cece443490aecc822047cf129adeb.png1369842255_gfsnh-0-360(2).thumb.png.8f22213c30c39dbfa5daa427554db2fd.png1652177971_gfsnh-0-348(6).thumb.png.aadeea2c1383f377f3379b346f6fb77a.png

Compare to the last three 0z runs:

1148389379_gfsnh-0-360(6).thumb.png.a0ae6017095286c225b90b36a67be53c.png34886144_gfsnh-0-360(5).thumb.png.735d3a2bcfc33cada73fdfde66496664.png315614859_gfsnh-0-360(7).thumb.png.b9bb3413b0357f7610a2d57c8012c8ed.png

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11 minutes ago, IDO said:

^^^ I have noticed the GFS 06z has a tendency to go OTT with the shredding of the tPV way out in FI, seen it last year and already obvious this. Not saying it is impossible, but another signal to be wary of on the 06z's. Last three 06z FI charts:

1687036149_gfsnh-0-360(3).thumb.png.b70cece443490aecc822047cf129adeb.png1369842255_gfsnh-0-360(2).thumb.png.8f22213c30c39dbfa5daa427554db2fd.png1652177971_gfsnh-0-348(6).thumb.png.aadeea2c1383f377f3379b346f6fb77a.png

Compare to the last three 0z runs:

1148389379_gfsnh-0-360(6).thumb.png.a0ae6017095286c225b90b36a67be53c.png34886144_gfsnh-0-360(5).thumb.png.735d3a2bcfc33cada73fdfde66496664.png315614859_gfsnh-0-360(7).thumb.png.b9bb3413b0357f7610a2d57c8012c8ed.png

Kinda hope in this case that the 00Z¬†GFS runs are over doing the strength of both the Polar Vortex and the Atlantic,¬†though it does make me wish it was those¬†00Z runs that are¬†showing the more amplified outlooks lol.¬†I suppose a half-way house is always possible. I think certainly the Scandinavian High option probably isn‚Äôt worth ruling out yet. (But clearly at the same time, not worth flooding our hopes up much either) ūüôā¬†

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Far FI of course but another hint at heights moving north as we saw last night's 12Z ECM. A hint also towards the EC clusters.

image.thumb.png.1f1688038cd717c24faf5ff89fbcb9a6.pngimage.thumb.png.1b31f3769c28a14c564fa5b7f20403e9.png

BTW, those worried about 'lack of cold to the east' note how quickly things can change over a landmass!

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A simple comparison, between the GFS 06Z and 00Z, at T+384, gives us an idea of just how many synoptic configurations can be¬†consistent with the airy notion of 'height rises to our ENE/NNE':ūü§Ē

06Z: h850t850eu.png 00Z: h850t850eu.png

But they're all plausible (and no doubt all wrong!) as they all follow logically, from the basic laws of physics:oldgood:...

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Posted (edited)

Happy new year everyone!

Need to see more on boarding of Scandi high from other models before getting too excited.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

I don't get why you are mentioning¬†¬†El Ni√Īo, solar activity etc and can't understand why this winter has been poor (for cold weather fans)¬†¬†but yet ¬†totally missing what has just happened recently from¬†which parts of Australia and the countries of East Africa bordering the Indian Ocean suffering because of the¬†Indian Ocean Dipole and how intense it has been.¬†

I have already suggested this to you.

 

 

Edited by Weather-history

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting times >> All the non cold spells over the last few weeks the GFS / ECM have been over amplified & the UKMO has been flat > eventually being the winner - all be it with some volatility..

Now we have the UKMO highly amplified with the GFS beginning to move to it - The 06 GEFS mean is a big swing to amplification at 156.

Ignoring all the misery & winter is over posts > thats the best news to date.

Its a pity no UKMO 168 today but im sure there will be a GEFS ENS that looks similar come 144

S

Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV

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