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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

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5 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Thanks. Also includes my weekday home near Wick. :wallbash:

Gotta be a payback for this anguish one day. There have been a few posts here about Lapland adventures at some point - is anyone serious about this?

I've started saving.

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Ok so seeing as my post in the "we pay a subscription thread" was removed because it was totally correct in outing members who give it the big listen to me I'm a weather god etc thread... I mean exact and follow my bull$**t and at some point in the next 100 years I will be right... motion this and stained glass windowing desphyer that.. exact this and that.. utter garbage this and utter tripe that.. the winter thread has become a place of hope casters that speak down to all other members like they are a higher being..a total waste of time and effort.. but as ever as soon as somebody posts in there to question it and make it out for exactly what it is the post is deleted.. I do honestly think that this place has really lost its fun in the last few winters and it is almost not worth having a say unless you are a so called big gun..my last post in here now. Thank you all for the fun and games over the years it's been a blast

 For those of you that will stay I feel truly sorry as your thoughts etc will be stifled..such a shame as this place used to be such a good place for us weather nuts. Over and out.. no MAIR BIG SNAW...

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9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

You can't go yet @bigsnow winter hasn't arrived yet ?

He'll be back next year. Leaving the forum is an annual tradition ??

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2 hours ago, Serac said:

Numerous glasses of wine confirm I won't be walking to the other side of the bridge to confirm or deny that theory ?

Haha, enjoy ?

 

I’m in kelty and have the same glow in the sky. Mossmorran has been flaring a lot recently. 

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? ? ? Big snow or the big hitter no sure who quits the most..... See u in 2 days mate when ure lapping up a cm of snaw 

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Met-Office Yellow for up to 80mm of rain across parts of the Borders:

1736548390_Screenshot_20200208-073513_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.e853af9766935f2ef41f8350e8531aa8.jpg

Chart showing a very wet night ahead:

386413041_Screenshot_20200208-070523_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.a6707dd3af48e9aea37b301ff85c1cb3.jpg

SEPA response:

2038869396_Screenshot_20200208-073347_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7ec607cf4d7aeca3b8488738a052888f.jpg

Even the widespread 40mm could be an issue, we hardly ever get that much rain in one go. It's going to be carnage.

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Wind speeds appear to be even slightly higher on the models this morning but the worst still heading far south. However combined with the rain and the squalls we could still experience some very strong gusts in parts of Scotland...... After such a quiet winter would have liked the storm to be a bit closer... Assuming it didn't take my fence ?

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That's some forecast. 36 hoors ae rain followed by 18 hoors ae snaw.

Blawin a hoolie throughoot it an aw.

Better walk the dugs while I still can. 

EDIT, hud oan, aifter a wee break, there's another 24 hoors odd ae snaw tae follow!

Well, at least we're actually getting some weather tae watch finally.

Edited by scottish skier
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Just crawled oot of bed and thinking now to crawl right back in again. Once I move the cat !

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14 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Beeglie ?

BEEG2.jpg

If I was a cat I'd look like that, cute & grumpy face ?

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Yesterday, pink fluffy clouds at sunrise. Later on, much blusteriness followed by three mini power cuts then one that lasted about thirty minutes. I went to my bed. This morning, pink fluffy clouds and a lovely sunrise and wind expected to be much stronger than yesterday. I road tested a small battery lantern last night, great wee thing. I think it may be well used later on! Stay safe Peeplings! ?☔☔??

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26 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Beeglie ?

BEEG2.jpg

He's spent too much time on lamp post watch, nose pressed up to the window.

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17 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Definitely a mebbes ayes mebbes snaws kinda few days and the charts show it's too early to write off almost everyone's snow chances, apart from @Kirkcaldy Weather and @Hawesy and @Hairy Celt who aren't getting snow ever again, but right to be a little sceptical.

? Yep, even if conditions were optimal it wouldn’t matter as the showers will never reach here. Just as well I’m used to snowless winters! 

My take on it is that temporary slushy deposits may accumulate just about anywhere but if you’re looking for proper accumulation you’re going to need a bit of elevation. Then it becomes the finest of margins 150m, 200m?

The latest GFS has Wednesday with thicknesses as low as 516 dam/ -8c 850s (for Leuchars) but by then pressure has built and the showers will likely be dying out.

You’re right @CatchMyDrift with a cold, unstable airflow we can’t write off everyone’s chances at this stage! ?
 

 

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Had the odd snow shower this morning, few hours of sun forecast then a big old wild mess incoming, looks an interesting few days indeed

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Interesting developments for the central belt overnight Monday into Tuesday. 

Acorss various models there appears to be a firming up of concentrated precipitation through the central belt for a period of time which with modest elevation could lead to a hefty deposit of snow for Tuesday morning. 

I haven't had a chance to look too much so I'm not sure if it's just an organisation of showers lining up and merging, or if it's troughs embedded in the unstable airflow. Hopefully doesn't fluctuate too much though over the next 2 days. 

Screenshot_20200208_103805_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.f0d06a928fa099c8aaaeb6256841068d.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_104007_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.8fb38851fd64e765ec4dca7505138091.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_103516_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.dfb2dacc102e3cb90fc08854428e187b.jpg

Just quickly checked and it appears it may actually be a front as there is an increase in 850's dew points and wet bulb temps coinciding with the arrival of the heavier precipitation, all of which would make it extremely marginal for snow away from higher elevations. May be dicey in that case for accumulating snow however factors return to being more favourable by around 6am Tuesday morning. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Interesting developments for the central belt overnight Monday into Tuesday. 

Acorss various models there appears to be a firming up of concentrated precipitation through the central belt for a period of time which with modest elevation could lead to a hefty deposit of snow for Tuesday morning. 

I haven't had a chance to look too much so I'm not sure if it's just an organisation of showers lining up and merging, or if it's troughs embedded in the unstable airflow. Hopefully doesn't fluctuate too much though over the next 2 days. 

Screenshot_20200208_103805_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.f0d06a928fa099c8aaaeb6256841068d.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_104007_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.8fb38851fd64e765ec4dca7505138091.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_103516_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.dfb2dacc102e3cb90fc08854428e187b.jpg

Just quickly checked and it appears it may actually be a front as there is an increase in 850's dew points and wet bulb temps coinciding with the arrival of the heavier precipitation, all of which would make it extremely marginal for snow away from higher elevations. May be dicey in that case for accumulating snow however factors return to being more favourable by around 6am Tuesday morning. 

 

Yes, been following that for the last few days and it's very marginal, as you say likely to be sleet away from the highest ground but there could be some surprises. 

 

ECM apparently going for max wind gusts of 75mph thro the central belt tomorrow and closer to 90mph around the Loch lomond area. 

Edited by Ross B
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Bbc has gusts of 64 while the met says 51 mph later today, it's 5 hrs away and they still don't agree. ? a day for looking out the window if you want to know what the weather is doing...

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Wales and most of England now Amber.

 2755A831-C17A-401F-AA8B-2F38C2458B5C.thumb.png.2c1d8ee958416d60ad63be1857e5c171.png
 

Sean Batty has mentioned 55/60mph through the Central belt tomorrow. (Some of the current models go much higher)

He also gives my back yard a risk of 70 mph gusts and small risk of 80mph across exposed parts of Argyll, Arran and Inner Hebrides. (Again some current models are a touch higher)

You would think an Amber warning would be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow as well? (I am assuming they are not confident enough at the moment on the areas the higher gusts will concentrate on?) 

The mind boggles with it all!  Also the risk of a sting jet developing! @BurntFishTrousers one for you to keep an eye on tomorrow. ?

A7FA9370-52D7-4A7A-B892-D980257324C2.thumb.png.79b06b931d7d48c19dd46bc795597473.png
 

And all this before the gales/snow risk on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning! So much going on but very exciting! 

Plan for today (early afternoon) is to walk forty minutes down the road to a beach that will be directly facing into the peak gusts. (60/65mph between 16:00 and 18:00 - only worrying things will be the lack of light/high tide)

Tomorrow the wind will be hitting me pretty much head on during the peak gusts so won’t have to go anywhere and then Monday/Tuesday a local 150/200 meters hill. (Big worry is the lightning risk!)

Tell you what it’s a hard life being a lover of extreme weather having to juggle days off work and also keep the other half sweet so I can do the above things! ?

Oh and I had a good wee read through this earlier - our own @Benvironment making a contribution to the article. ?

Why is there less snow on Scotland's mountains this year?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51279607

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Already very blustery out there, wondering how long the washing will stay on the line!

As a consequence the wind chill is wickedly cold even though the thermometer is reading currently reading 6.5c - gloriously sunny though so feeling very pleasant sitting in the conservatory. 

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