Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

[Mair Snaw]

Storm Baw Bag part 2!!!

[shuggee]

UK Meto haven't even acknowledged that Storm Brendan occurred - can't be bothered it seems:

UK Storm Centre

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Find out the latest information about storms in the UK as we name them as part of our Name our Storms project.

Ciara next. Google says she was born in Austin, Texas. Bet she doesn't know what a baw bag is 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Storm Baw Bag part 2!!!

Nah it has to be storm SNAW BAG

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, shuggee said:

UK Meto haven't even acknowledged that Storm Brendan occurred - can't be bothered it seems:

UK Storm Centre

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Find out the latest information about storms in the UK as we name them as part of our Name our Storms project.

Ciara next. Google says she was born in Austin, Texas. Bet she doesn't know what a baw bag is 

not if it isn't attached to her brother/dad she probably wont..

[Mr Frost]

 

Don’t think I have ever experienced anything like that on low ground before (heavy snowfall combined with high wind gusts for a prolonged period) - too far away to be taken seriously but it does look extremely stormy late Saturday/Sunday and then again on the charts above. (Tuesday)

Edited February 4, 2020 by Mr Frost

[edinburgh_1992]

These charts are quite exceptional, the westerly winds modelled are so strong that cold air looks like it is being pulled over all the way from North America to the UK with little warming along the way. 

Quite exciting days ahead if these charts get confirmed. I think they will get watered down though, both in terms of temperature and wind.  

[ciel]

51 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Yeah just wait for a wee shortwave to spoil it, it works the same for westerlies as northerlies. However, the UKMO is well onboard this afternoon so you never know:

Us next week (in my dreams...sorry @ciel I know not all of us would be impressed):

 

 

I'm just keeping a low profile for the time being, with an eye on the charts and fingers crossed. 

It was actually quite nice here today, after the early morning, tile-rattling wind dropped.

[Ross B]

1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

These charts are quite exceptional, the westerly winds modelled are so strong that cold air looks like it is being pulled over all the way from North America to the UK with little warming along the way. 

Quite exciting days ahead if these charts get confirmed. I think they will get watered down though, both in terms of temperature and wind.  

One thing I always worry about in these situations, due to the experience of living near the west coast, the strong winds tend to bring in warmer air off the sea at lower levels. This can drive well inland with stronger winds and cause either a sleet or slush fest at best for low levels. I normally don't expect to see anything major for low levels until you get to - 10c 850's. Not saying that will happen but it normally does so I'm not getting excited yet! 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Ross B

[Penicuikblizzard]

Is this coming storm like shades of 1993 ???

Edinburgh was hit by blizzards that day I remember it well

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Yeah just wait for a wee shortwave to spoil it, it works the same for westerlies as northerlies. However, the UKMO is well onboard this afternoon so you never know:

Us next week (in my dreams...sorry @ciel I know not all of us would be impressed):

 

Where was this filmed??

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I am just waiting until the period of interest starts appearing in the short range models but I will just say now that the way things are looking at the minute that thunder snow will be a likely possibility with pressure that low and the 850 temps convection and instability will be ripe..

[edo]

@Penicuikblizzardthat snowfall hit dundee very well and led to my first day off work because of snow only 6 months into working.... Little did I realise it would be my last.... Work remained open in 2010 and I was 3 hours late on 30 November as dug myself out at home. That snow of 93 also led to a rapid thaw and a week later a huge flood in Perth. I also had to reinput weeks of work after flood damaged servers and backup tapes.

Edited February 4, 2020 by edo

[BurntFishTrousers]

I did a little adjusting of the decode de-modulator and now think I'm ready to follow closely the weekend low with hi-res shots. Meanwhile, latest pass shows what looks like well cold weather way up north, proper polar low territory for those in Svalbard etc. 

[scott125]

20 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Big fat snaw flakes here in East Kilbride

Hopefully this is just a wee taster of what is to come next week

Didnt even realise it snowed last night . No evidence of that this morning in EK

[Ravelin]

5 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Not unless they're on my plate!

Did you see the headline yesterday about how many deer there are in Scotland? It's no wonder theplace is f&&ked.

 

Hold up old chap, got to keep the deer numbers up as we wouldn't want the shooting guests to have to walk too far to find something to take pot shots at would we. At least with grouse they can stand still while we drive the birds towards them. Damn deer just aren't as obliging. 

Seriously though we do drastically need to reduce Scotland's deer population, which is kept artificially high in places for the convenience of a few. I was wondering at the recent story about planting thousand of trees along the water courses in the Cairngorms to help the salmon population. I didn't see any suggestion that they were going to deer fence these trees. If they don't then they'll be feeding the deer more than helping the salmon. 

As for the weather... Now = pretty boring, but not awful... This time next week = potentially very interesting. 

Although I suspect I'll be too far east next week to see much if any snow despite the forecast strong winds. The Cairngorms will excell in their usual snow shield role. 

[Hairy Celt]

6 hours ago, moffatross said:

It looks as much to me like a land degraded by historical deforestation and contemporary grouse shooting as one degraded by deer.

You're likely right.  All part of the same land mismanagement for the benefit of the few rich sods who thinks it's high jinks to shoot living creatures. I know which way I'd point the gun.  One of my least pleasant Highland nights out memories is of sharing a room with a half-cut English Lord somebody on a shooting spree. One of those memories that doesn't seem to fade.

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, edo said:

@Penicuikblizzardthat snowfall hit dundee very well and led to my first day off work because of snow only 6 months into working.... Little did I realise it would be my last.... Work remained open in 2010 and I was 3 hours late on 30 November as dug myself out at home. That snow of 93 also led to a rapid thaw and a week later a huge flood in Perth. I also had to reinput weeks of work after flood damaged servers and backup tapes.

Yes a rare day off work for me too.  Ended up leaving the car and doing a Perth Road pub crawl.

The flooding in Perth was mostly due to around two feet of level snow in the upper Tay catchment melting rapidly a couple of days before with temps reaching over 11C accompanied by heavy rain and gale force Westerly winds. The water reached Perth 24/48 hours later and if I remember correctly it was actually dry in Perth when the floods came. They were lucky that on the Friday it briefly got colder again North and West of Dunkeld and it turned back to snow and stopped the remaining snowpack melting quickly. It was exacerbated by the fact that following the bad floods in Feb 1990 many landowners had built flood barricades to protect their land along the Tay channelling much of  the water down to the Perth area. 
The Tay has the largest flow by some way of all Uk rivers and on this occasion it was many times the normal flow. 
Here is a link to the official report but it is a bit long. http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/The_Great_Tay_Flood_of_January_1993.pdf
 

Also a quote about the flow in Perth that day.  
A flow of 2,269 m3/s (80,100 cu ft/s) was recorded on 17 January 1993, when the river rose 6.48 m (21 ft 3 in) above its usual level at Perth, and caused extensive flooding in the city.

Perth was actually lucky in 1990 as the Isla catchment that time had not much snow to melt and some water from theTay actually flowed  up the Isla or it could gave been just as bad. In 1993 the Isla catchment contributed snowmelt also and increased the damage in the Perth area. 
 

Personally I would prefer a 1984 scenario with the storms being separated by colder showery weather  stopping the rapid melting. Also with some of the depressions crossing to the South the resulting Easterly winds on their North side helped distribute the snow more widely giving deep falls right across the country to Fife and  Aberdeenshire for example. 

Edit. I was a bit geekish about this as at the time I was on a waiting list for a job at the Tay River Purification Board, later part of Sepa. Unfortunately I missed my follow up interview as I was away skiing and they only gave me a weeks notice.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Norrance

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 if only a GFS snow depth chart would come true... 

 

[Ross90]

Looks to be about 60-70mph through the central belt, maybe 80ish in the northwest and southern parts.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 if only a GFS snow depth chart would come true... 

 

Would like to see those red colors come further south in subsequent runs 

[Ravelin]

6 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Would like to see those red colors come further south in subsequent runs 

And further East too, in fact why not just colour the whole of Scotland red, coast to coast. 

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

And further East too, in fact why not just colour the whole of Scotland red, coast to coast. 

Just go thee whole hog and have pinks and greys? Who made an album called something like that? 'In the land of pink and grey' - or is it just my addled cortex starting to eat itself....

[ciel]

Still, frosty morning and a nice sunrise.

  

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

50 minutes ago, ciel said:

Still, frosty morning and a nice sunrise.

  

Aye, was a crackin sunrise here too. Very red, so I was immediately expecting the worst based on the shepherds advice, but no, seems pleasant enough.

[Norrance]

Cloudy here this morning with current temp of 4C. 
Anyone fancy an early holiday in Spain? 29.6C at Valencia broke their all time Feb record and it was only the 4rth. Italy also unseasonably warm.