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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

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12 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Isn't that NW forecasting too?  Always shows wipe out whiteout weather a week ahead but can't even tell you whether it's going to rain overnight.

I do a forecast for my Facebook weather page every day and I only rely on the GFS for wind gust forecasts which it tends to do very well at short range. I look at the precip & temp for comparison, I'd never base a forecast solely on the GFS. I often only look at the Euro4 for a forecast.

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41 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Euro4 on the case too...

1194190251_Screenshot_20200111-205710_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.737df00400be6952ff8466124bbf32aa.jpg

wrf and some of the other short range models not really interested, ATM I would say somewhere like Cairngorms SW to Dalwhinnie look best. Euro 4 has really been overestimating any snowfall opportunities this winter IMO.

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2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

@Serac brilliant... spat me buckfast down myself..

lemon I'll have to come round if you're going to waste it!

Lemon?wtf?

Edited by Hairy Celt

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11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

wrf and some of the other short range models not really interested, ATM I would say somewhere like Cairngorms SW to Dalwhinnie look best. Euro 4 has really been overestimating any snowfall opportunities this winter IMO.

Euro4 nailed the snow from 24 hours out the other morning when all the other models missed it. 

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On 08/01/2020 at 13:41, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@shuggee @mardatha @CatchMyDrift on snow watch later? 

All I will say is the short range models I have looked at don't really show much at all so wouldn't be getting my hopes up 😂

I never replied at the time but my forecast for my weather page on Wednesday morning was based solely on the Euro4 and it was more or less spot on for what happened with the snow on Thursday, in my modest opinion 🤣

 

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11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Euro4 nailed the snow from 24 hours out the other morning when all the other models missed it. 

 

7 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I never replied at the time but my forecast for my weather page on Wednesday morning was based solely on the Euro4 and it was more or less spot on for what happened with the snow on Thursday, in my modest opinion 🤣

 

We need a beast from the east redux to fully test the snow forecasting capabilities of the short range models 😂

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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

We need a beast from the east redux to fully test the snow forecasting capabilities of the short range models 😂

Like this? 

About possible snow Monday or Tuesday, I don't think the uppers are cold enough for it. 

gfs-2-312.png

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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

We need a beast from the east redux to fully test the snow forecasting capabilities of the short range models 😂

Or just some clever person with charts and radar comparisons 🤣

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8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Dinny start gettin cheeky or al get @Big Innes Madori on yeh :oldlaugh: ;)

I wasn't being cheeky. Knowing our luck we'd find out the GFS was the most accurate and we're just a pair of muppets!

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2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Isn't that NW forecasting too?  Always shows wipe out whiteout weather a week ahead but can't even tell you whether it's going to rain overnight.

Nope, we don't use GFS at all. 

The forecasts use UKV data (which incidentally also picked up the snow in the week), with some Netwx (NMM) model blended in beyond 120 hours.

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Did anyone else get a look at the penumbral eclipse last night? I couldn't tell the difference from an ordinary full moon!

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4 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Did anyone else get a look at the penumbral eclipse last night? I couldn't tell the difference from an ordinary full moon!

Here's one from twitter 

 

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

Nope, we don't use GFS at all. 

The forecasts use UKV data (which incidentally also picked up the snow in the week), with some Netwx (NMM) model blended in beyond 120 hours.

😳🤨  oops. Still, haven't found them that useful recently in Caithness.

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Here's one from twitter 

 

'Monica' obvs not in Scotland...

(unfortunately?)

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2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

'Monica' obvs not in Scotland...

(unfortunately?)

Best one I could find from Scotland 

 

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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Best one I could find from Scotland 

 

Nairn's close to here. I looked at the Moon about 10 mins earlier and that shadow wasn't there then. Optimum time was around the time I looked. 

Mysterious :unknw:

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The met Office text forecast is on the fence for Tuesday, probably the first time this season where it hasn't mentioned snow being restricted to hills...?

 

Thursday:

Showery start to Tuesday, then periods of rain and snow crossing from southwest later.

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@Kirkcaldy Weather the Euro4 definitely looks dodgy with the snow for tomorrow night. The dewpoints and 950 temps are way too high, I don't know how it decides that precip will fall as snow. The other morning the dewpoints and the 950 temps were good for snow, I don't usually live by the pink/blue charts for a forecast.

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Wow just had a hail shower with a rumble of thunder. At last a bit of excitement in the weather 🙄😄

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Heavy showers again just before dawn cleared to allow a ground frost to develop as  daylight came in.   Hills round the Firth are white again and Black Isle appears to have a dusting  (Hail or Snow)     Currently sunny,moderate breeze and 2c

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10 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I wasn't being cheeky. Knowing our luck we'd find out the GFS was the most accurate and we're just a pair of muppets!

Right then you Perr o' collaborating Muppets!

Wheresma Snaw 🙅

Big ever patient Innes

😁 

Edited by Big Innes Madori

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