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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020


Norrance

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl

Interesting developments for the central belt overnight Monday into Tuesday. 

Acorss various models there appears to be a firming up of concentrated precipitation through the central belt for a period of time which with modest elevation could lead to a hefty deposit of snow for Tuesday morning. 

I haven't had a chance to look too much so I'm not sure if it's just an organisation of showers lining up and merging, or if it's troughs embedded in the unstable airflow. Hopefully doesn't fluctuate too much though over the next 2 days. 

Screenshot_20200208_103805_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.f0d06a928fa099c8aaaeb6256841068d.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_104007_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.8fb38851fd64e765ec4dca7505138091.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_103516_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.dfb2dacc102e3cb90fc08854428e187b.jpg

Just quickly checked and it appears it may actually be a front as there is an increase in 850's dew points and wet bulb temps coinciding with the arrival of the heavier precipitation, all of which would make it extremely marginal for snow away from higher elevations. May be dicey in that case for accumulating snow however factors return to being more favourable by around 6am Tuesday morning. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
11 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Interesting developments for the central belt overnight Monday into Tuesday. 

Acorss various models there appears to be a firming up of concentrated precipitation through the central belt for a period of time which with modest elevation could lead to a hefty deposit of snow for Tuesday morning. 

I haven't had a chance to look too much so I'm not sure if it's just an organisation of showers lining up and merging, or if it's troughs embedded in the unstable airflow. Hopefully doesn't fluctuate too much though over the next 2 days. 

Screenshot_20200208_103805_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.f0d06a928fa099c8aaaeb6256841068d.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_104007_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.8fb38851fd64e765ec4dca7505138091.jpg

Screenshot_20200208_103516_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.dfb2dacc102e3cb90fc08854428e187b.jpg

Just quickly checked and it appears it may actually be a front as there is an increase in 850's dew points and wet bulb temps coinciding with the arrival of the heavier precipitation, all of which would make it extremely marginal for snow away from higher elevations. May be dicey in that case for accumulating snow however factors return to being more favourable by around 6am Tuesday morning. 

 

Yes, been following that for the last few days and it's very marginal, as you say likely to be sleet away from the highest ground but there could be some surprises. 

 

ECM apparently going for max wind gusts of 75mph thro the central belt tomorrow and closer to 90mph around the Loch lomond area. 

Edited by Ross B
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

Bbc has gusts of 64 while the met says 51 mph later today, it's 5 hrs away and they still don't agree.  a day for looking out the window if you want to know what the weather is doing...

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Wales and most of England now Amber.

 2755A831-C17A-401F-AA8B-2F38C2458B5C.thumb.png.2c1d8ee958416d60ad63be1857e5c171.png
 

Sean Batty has mentioned 55/60mph through the Central belt tomorrow. (Some of the current models go much higher)

He also gives my back yard a risk of 70 mph gusts and small risk of 80mph across exposed parts of Argyll, Arran and Inner Hebrides. (Again some current models are a touch higher)

You would think an Amber warning would be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow as well? (I am assuming they are not confident enough at the moment on the areas the higher gusts will concentrate on?) 

The mind boggles with it all!  Also the risk of a sting jet developing! @BurntFishTrousers one for you to keep an eye on tomorrow. 

A7FA9370-52D7-4A7A-B892-D980257324C2.thumb.png.79b06b931d7d48c19dd46bc795597473.png
 

And all this before the gales/snow risk on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning! So much going on but very exciting! 

Plan for today (early afternoon) is to walk forty minutes down the road to a beach that will be directly facing into the peak gusts. (60/65mph between 16:00 and 18:00 - only worrying things will be the lack of light/high tide)

Tomorrow the wind will be hitting me pretty much head on during the peak gusts so won’t have to go anywhere and then Monday/Tuesday a local 150/200 meters hill. (Big worry is the lightning risk!)

Tell you what it’s a hard life being a lover of extreme weather having to juggle days off work and also keep the other half sweet so I can do the above things! 

Oh and I had a good wee read through this earlier - our own @Benvironment making a contribution to the article. 

Why is there less snow on Scotland's mountains this year?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51279607

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL

Already very blustery out there, wondering how long the washing will stay on the line!

As a consequence the wind chill is wickedly cold even though the thermometer is reading currently reading 6.5c - gloriously sunny though so feeling very pleasant sitting in the conservatory. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl

Its actually a beautiful day in Glasgow. Can just see the first clouds moving in from the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

Hoping this storm doesn't interfere with my travel home! Already been delayed a day due to the storms over here!

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

That's the rain on now and the wind picked up a bit more.

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.

Wind has increased steadily since morning. Currently sunny with temperature around 5C.

Peak winds due in a few hours but nothing serious.

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

40-45 mph for a time during the night but nothing above 40 so far today in Motherwell.Looks like today and tomorrow has been watered down a bit and it probably won't even be as windy as Brendan was through the central belt.

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Posted
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
  • Location: Moffat - D&G

Pretty much all of CalMac's weekend sailings have been cancelled, and it's not looking too promising into next week either. Mind you, there are worse places to be stranded than Barra, North Uist or Lewis

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

An interesting one for tonight, I wouldn't be surprised to see rotation within the rain. Helicity values very high anim_rxz0.thumb.gif.c75d383090542278d3c63c66dbb3822f.gif

 "Helicity

A property of a moving fluid which represents the potential for helical flow (i.e. flow which follows the pattern of a corkscrew) to evolve. Helicity is proportional to the strength of the flow, the amount of vertical wind shear, and the amount of turning in the flow (i.e. vorticity). Atmospheric helicity is computed from the vertical wind profile in the lower part of the atmosphere (usually from the surface up to 3 km), and is measured relative to storm motion. Higher values of helicity (generally, around 150 m2/s2 or more) favor the development of mid-level rotation (i.e. mesocyclones). Extreme values can exceed 600 m2/s2."  https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=helicity 

shear also present nmm_uk1-39-12-0.thumb.png.124d504adca91fc27d42ebfb23183c74.png

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Posted
  • Location: North shields
  • Location: North shields

Hi I’ve got a few days off so I’m heading up to Scotland in the search for some white stuff,not sure where best to head,fort William,was thinking with it being more in the west,is it high up there.or was looking at Aviemore,will that still get the showers from the west as it is a bit further east..Any recommendations would be appreciated 

                                          Cheers jason

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

We just about to get swamped with the rain and this is only the beginning too. Rough couple of days coming up

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Posted
  • Location: Lanark, South Lanarkshire 190m asl
  • Location: Lanark, South Lanarkshire 190m asl
20 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

Hi I’ve got a few days off so I’m heading up to Scotland in the search for some white stuff,not sure where best to head,fort William,was thinking with it being more in the west,is it high up there.or was looking at Aviemore,will that still get the showers from the west as it is a bit further east..Any recommendations would be appreciated 

                                          Cheers jason

Hi Jason

Fort William itself  is fairly low lying and rarely gets snow in my experience. Obviously Ben Nevis is there but I don't think you want to be going up there over the next few days. Aviemore and the Cairngorms national park is a better bet generally. The A9 has high points on the road up so you have to be careful with snow gates being closed etc.

I am speaking in general terms. I have not seen the specifics of forecasts in these areas over the next few days.

Hope this helps. Enjoy your trip to Scotland.

Edited by Starsail
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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Winter Storms, Heatwaves.
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire
1 minute ago, Starsail said:

Hi Jason

Fort William itself  is fairly low lying and rarely gets snow in my experience. Obviously Ben Nevis is there but I don't think you want to be going up there over the next few days. Aviemore and the Cairngorms national park is a better bet generally. The A9 has high points on the road up so you have to be careful with snow gates being closed etc.

I am speaking in general terms. I have not seen the specifics of forecasts in these areas over the next few days.

Hope this helps. Enjoy your trip to Scotland.

Hi Jason,

Yes as has just been said Aviemore is your best bet if your looking for some snow over the next few days. I suspect that the strength of the wind on Monday and Tuesday will bring in quite a few showers so hopefully you'll get lucky and enjoy what we have to offer! Fort William will be far too mild for anything that's going to land 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Amber warning for rain has just been issued for SW Scotland, Lothian Borders.

Issued: 16:04 (UTC) on Sat 8 Feb 2020

Heavy and persistent rain falling through Sunday morning will bring widely 30-50mm and as much as 70mm in around 9-12 hours, this on top of rain which will already have fallen through Saturday.

4F637F8C-3657-46E4-9100-45AE6432FD22.thumb.jpeg.e6a1a50e057fdd173cd4a1e8b21be60e.jpeg

Very windy here now with heavy rain. I am hoping to see some snow when at work on Monday night but I am not sure if it will. I think it’s just a case of wait and see what happens as some forecasts are going for snow and others for rain.

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
15 minutes ago, rob4al said:

Hi Jason,

Yes as has just been said Aviemore is your best bet if your looking for some snow over the next few days. I suspect that the strength of the wind on Monday and Tuesday will bring in quite a few showers so hopefully you'll get lucky and enjoy what we have to offer! Fort William will be far too mild for anything that's going to land 

I'd probably head for King's House Hotel at Glencoe or Bridge of Orchy, both High altitude and should get some heavy showers. Also in good locations for the west Highland way to walk a bit higher up if its milder than expected. Aviemore should get some snow though! 

Edited by Ross B
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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
47 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

Hi I’ve got a few days off so I’m heading up to Scotland in the search for some white stuff,not sure where best to head,fort William,was thinking with it being more in the west,is it high up there.or was looking at Aviemore,will that still get the showers from the west as it is a bit further east..Any recommendations would be appreciated 

                                          Cheers jason

Best snaw is gonnae be at ma hoose. 

--

Wind stairtin tae whistle. Rain oan. Aff we go. 

Edited by scottish skier
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Posted
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
32 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Amber warning for rain has just been issued for SW Scotland, Lothian Borders.

 

Interesting. That's a very localised area in the amber warning zone, east of Eskdalemuir and towards Kielder. It's the leeward side of the Southern Uplands that in my experience, gets heavy rain much less frequently than we do on my side of the hills but those Tweeddale towns can be prone to flooding when it does happen.

Edit - Tweeddale, not Tweedsdale. D'oh !!

Edited by moffatross
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
36 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Amber warning for rain has just been issued for SW Scotland, Lothian Borders.

Issued: 16:04 (UTC) on Sat 8 Feb 2020

Heavy and persistent rain falling through Sunday morning will bring widely 30-50mm and as much as 70mm in around 9-12 hours, this on top of rain which will already have fallen through Saturday.

4F637F8C-3657-46E4-9100-45AE6432FD22.thumb.jpeg.e6a1a50e057fdd173cd4a1e8b21be60e.jpeg

Very windy here now with heavy rain. I am hoping to see some snow when at work on Monday night but I am not sure if it will. I think it’s just a case of wait and see what happens as some forecasts are going for snow and others for rain.

SEPA info 

A FLOOD ALERT has been issued for Scottish Borders. from this morning

Heavy and persistent rainfall has been forecast for Saturday night and Sunday in this area, which will lead to a risk of flooding from rivers and surface water from late on Saturday and into Sunday. 

Coastal flood warnings for Dumfries and Galloway 

 

feb08amberraintw.png

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

Tonight has been a bit of a let down so far considering 5-6pm was forecast as the period of strongest winds, 50 - 55mph max in the lower parts of Strathclyde.

Edited by Ross90
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Posted
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
3 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Tonight has been a bit of a let down so far considering 5-6pm was forecast as the period of strongest winds, 50 - 55mph max in the lower parts of Strathclyde.

Aye, and I'm hoping we're off the hook for the time being too, but maybe a wee bit too early. The Met Office forecast has the wind peaking around 6 pm, but so far it's pretty standard wind and rain stuff for Moffat i.e. it's like the fire brigade are outside our hoose and are hosing the windows, but not like they're trying to remove the roof at the same time!!

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