Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

[ciel]

24 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Cloudy here this morning with current temp of 4C. 
Anyone fancy an early holiday in Spain? 29.6C at Valencia broke their all time Feb record and it was only the 4rth. Italy also unseasonably warm.

 

Well, I certainly wouldn't mind a dose of heat at present, but in the wider scheme of things it's all quite concerning?

January 2020 warmest on record: EU climate service

PHYS.ORG

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Last month was the warmest January on record globally, while in Europe temperatures were a balmy three degrees Celsius above the average January from...

 

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Cloudy here this morning with current temp of 4C. 
Anyone fancy an early holiday in Spain? 29.6C at Valencia broke their all time Feb record and it was only the 4rth. Italy also unseasonably warm.

 

My mate is actually arriving in Valencia in a couple of hours - told him it was roasting and he was buzzing...it’s back to mid teens from today! Bad luck for him!  (He was hoping for mid 20’s)
 

 

Chilly morning across Europe currently:

 

I really hope we get a warm/sunny Spring and hot/sunny/convective Summer - that would be the dream seasons for me! Winter just isn’t cutting it anymore! (2018/19 and 2019/20) 

Think we (snow lovers) should all chip in some money and buy a big log cabin in Northern Finland!  (Each member has it for a week during Winter)

 

On that note roll on a cold/snowy spell, warm/sunny spell, thunderstorms or a severe gale event.

7c and cloudy currently is boring me to death!

Edit: Met Office have named a storm! 

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Ross B]

The latest GFS run to me shows mostly a high ground snow event next week. The potential runs from Mon to Wed with a brief mild sector on Thursday with the snow line rising (subject to the front timing /position  as it could be a more widespread event) and back to snow showers for Fri/Sat.

For areas who do get snow in the west it could be a good event but to me it looks to be mainly a >2/300m event in terms of lying snow with brief dustings to lower levels in heavier showers for a short window on Tuesday .(based on GFS only) 

 

Let's hope for some upgrades in terms of the cold over the next few days as it only needs to be a degree or 2 colder for it to be more widespread. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Ross B

[Northern Strath]

Thanks Ross B, more of a breakdown of Scottish snow potential in your one post than there is wading through pages of the model thread

[Hawesy]

23 minutes ago, Ross B said:

The latest GFS run to me shows mostly a high ground snow event next week. The potential runs from Mon to Wed with a brief mild sector on Thursday with the snow line rising (subject to the front timing /position  as it could be a more widespread event) and back to snow showers for Fri/Sat.

For areas who do get snow in the west it could be a good event but to me it looks to be mainly a >2/300m event in terms of lying snow with brief dustings to lower levels in heavier showers for a short window on Tuesday .(based on GFS only) 

 

Let's hope for some upgrades in terms of the cold over the next few days as it only needs to be a degree or 2 colder for it to be more widespread. 

Good summary, Ross. As has been commented on many times in here, GFS does seem to forever be over-egging westerly based cold spells at 5-7 days only for the numbers to be 'watered down' in the reliable.  

[Ruzzi]

I still think looking at GFS at the moment that modest elevation will be alright, 850's between -6 and -8 give or take. 

Thickness will likely have a bigger part to play as we're well within 518, 520 DAM which can often be a tip in favour of snow when 850's aren't outstanding. 

Dew points also look right side of marginal at the moment too. 

The only factor not looking great is the Wet bulb temps but they're not horrendous being anywhere between 0 and 2 degrees at midday. 

Plenty time for change but I reckon on those factors, inland areas with respectable elevation will be fine for snow, around 150m upwards. Maybe a little dicier at lower elevations but not to be ruled out. 

Here are the parameters for Monday in order of 850's, dew point, wet bulb 

 

Tuesday

 

Wednesday 

 

I do like the look of this morning's ECM precipitation chart too for Monday 

 

I'd put my neck out and say that if those parameters don't change too much then the Met office will be issuing snow warnings this weekend, especially for those above 150m

Edited February 5, 2020 by Ruzzi

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Great summaries @Ruzzi and @Ross B I am still waiting til well within range of shorter range models but this ties in with what I was thinking / saying about thunder snow potential (on phone so can't post loads of charts) CAPE ready to move in from Atlantic 

combined with colder air 

convective precip literally lining up 

[Stormeh]

Bugger it! I am moving to Glencoe mountain for a few weeks.

[Hairy Celt]

29 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Bugger it! I am moving to Glencoe mountain for a few weeks.

I think we'd be kidding ourselves to expect anything more than hill snow on a westerly. Dew points etc will all be against us. (Something to do with wet bulbs / wet balls?)

[Mr Frost]

Just now, Hairy Celt said:

I think we'd be kidding ourselves to expect anything more than hill snow on a westerly. Dew points etc will all be against us. (Something to do with wet bulbs / wet balls?)

Kidding ourselves from any direction this Winter! 

150/200 meters is the place to be this Winter to see actual snowfall! 

@Stormeh you working Monday night/Tuesday morning? You could be in luck if you are. 

 

@Ruzzi seeing snowfall as usual I would imagine.

Sod off already Winter 2019/20 ye absolute stinking pile of sh*te! 

[Hairy Celt]

1 minute ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 12z ECM is an absolute screamer for the wind on Sunday. 100mph gusts near Jura & Islay and 70-90mph inland as the system moves east:

My old climatological atlas has Islay down as one of the very windiest and mildest places in the UK, wouldn't be surprised if that applied to Islay for Europe. Crazy place - there are residents who have never seen settled snow, and falling snow once every decade or so. Coastal woodland is ridiculously wind-pruned.

[Stormeh]

3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

@Stormeh you working Monday night/Tuesday morning? You could be in luck if you are. 

Yes I am

Maybe an interesting drive home around 1am on Tuesday

 

[shuggee]

I have started to polish my measuring stick in anticipation. It sat all last winter unused. Premature? 

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 12z ECM is an absolute screamer for the wind on Sunday. 100mph gusts near Jura & Islay and 70-90mph inland as the system moves east:

Were down in the Central belt this weekend visiting family, arriving Friday evening. The drive back home on Sunday could be a bit tasty. 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

42 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Especially once the old funnel gets going.

You better believe it! 

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, shuggee said:

I have started to polish my measuring stick in anticipation. It sat all last winter unused. Premature? 

There are a few unprintable replies to that 

[Zenarcher]

Monday night was windy here with a top gust of 65mph our highest so far this winter we also had very heavy hail showers. Tuesday and today Wednesday have been more settled. Sunday is looking very windy again and I hope next week to see some snow.

[Ross B]

A raft of weather warnings now in place with a new yellow wind warning on Saturday and snow & wind on Mon/Tues.  As expected, mainly a high ground affair at the moment but it'll be an interesting spell for most even if it's only slush/hail at low levels.

"Frequent and heavy snow showers will affect the region throughout Monday and at first on Tuesday. Snow showers will mainly be over high ground. Slight accumulations of 1 to 3 cm above 150 metres and 5-10 cm above 300 metres. Strong winds, gusting 50-60 mph, will lead to blizzard conditions at times and considerable drifting of lying snow. Frequent lightning strikes are also possible, perhaps leading to interruptions to power supplies."

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Mr Frost]

Everyone’s phones buzzing in here as well!? 

Winter 2019/20 has finally arrived folks! Yaaaaaaaasssssss!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Everyone’s phones buzzing in here as well!? 

Winter 2019/20 has finally arrived folks! Yaaaaaaaasssssss!

LOL that is hilarious  

[Mr Frost]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

LOL that is hilarious  

Get yerself to Cowdenbeath or Burntisland. 
 

Did you see the bit that mentions possible frequent lightning strikes as well!? That along with 50/60mph gusts and snow! Absolute mayhem above 150/200 meters! Blizzards galore! Unbelievable! 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Did you see the bit that mentions possible frequent lightning strikes as well!? That along with 50/60mph gusts and snow! Absolute mayhem above 150/200 meters! Blizzards galore! Unbelievable! 

Aye well I hope the rest of you enjoy it, I will just have to find another hobby  

[Ross B]

3 weeks in a row the snow potential has been Mon-Wed and I've not been here for any of them due to work  The M74 could be interesting early Monday but I' not sure if much will have happened there by then!

[SW Saltire]

14 hours ago, shuggee said:

I have started to polish my measuring stick in anticipation. It sat all last winter unused. Premature? 

I am keen to hear your updates. Will be going Dumf to Edi on Tuesday evening so will decide what road - 701, Dalveen Pass + 702 or realistically given I have no winter tyres Moffat and then 702 - to take.

Absolutely love the Beeftub (701) usually, door to door 90 mins 

Hopefully Wet bulb temps get a bit more favourable for my location as it’ll be another wet snow/sleet fest on current stats sadly

Edited February 6, 2020 by SW Saltire

[Mr Frost]

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Aye well I hope the rest of you enjoy it, I will just have to find another hobby  

Not all bad news for Kirkcaldy! 

 

I am sure you will see some exciting weather through Saturday to Wednesday.