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Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

"The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.”

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles.

But with a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly. 

But who will claim they were correct?

 

 Back to sea ice reporting - but something to keep at the back of ones mind.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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BBC REPORT AMAZING SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS ON GLOBAL WARMING! TREES ARE THE PROBLEM! Apparently scientists have discovered that when trees die they no longer use photosynthesis and so produce no

2019 wasn't even close to one of the coolest on record. It was in the top 30% warmest of all recorded years. Only Spring was below average, and by just 0.1F. All that is excluding Alaska too, which

It means nothing that somewhere got a freak cold event. In the end the last few years have been the hottest in recorded history with many heat records broken every year across the world. Just because

15 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

"The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.”

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles.

But with a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly. 

But who will claim they were correct?

 

 Back to sea ice reporting - but something to keep at the back of ones mind.

MIA


I'm surprised (well, not really) that you are so enthusiastic about this paper. The results are entirely derived from global climate model simulations from 1955 to 2005.

If you accept the results from this study, does that mean you accept the output from climate models in general? That your bashing of climate models for years and years has come to an end?

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17 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

 

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles.

 

As BFTV points out this report covers forcings ending on 05' (before we saw Science collectively scratch its head as to the extent/area drop of 07?)

Maybe the 'faux pause' fits your bill but the recent global temp years since 2014 appear to show a rapid increase in global rate in change of temp with last year near challenging a 'Super Nino' year for top spot?

It is no accident that I gave over any thought of helping avert the catastrophe we now face back in 2014.....

I've just enjoyed an hour sat in the warm January Sun ..... not many times I've experienced/enjoyed such..... I wonder what the rest of this year holds for our Hemisphere?

I know one thing, if we do not see rainfall damp off the drying Moor then by late March, should we see a settled dry start to spring, we WILL see extensive Moorland blazes once again!....

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Thanks for the above guys...

My arguments with the models have always been that they can be retrofitted to make any historical data look accurate by using enough variables (parameters). ( I used to do it for a living), but it does not alter the fact that they can (and do) use this method to  replicate history, and then expect to be able to forecast accurately using the same  model and parameters, but it still does not mean that they are anywhere near correct.!

My estimate is another 10-15years before they should be accepted.

It is in future prediction that the models can be judged, and which I find untrustworthy because of their inabilities in forecasting (OK predicting).

I have no 'power' in this game, and for the last decade I have accepted that CO2 will cause AGW   warming. 

I think (rather than my position), it is your positions that need to be examined 

For instance -

Do you accept this new modelled scenario?.   Since it is based upon the same models that have been used to  show extreme warming, and which now give a real hope that the more extremist CAGW predictions may well be avoided.

The model used does not attempt to predict the future, but simply uses the data available to state what the impact would have been today if things had remained the same. Do you accept that models can predict the current? 

A lot more research is taking place into the affects of these new chemicals. They can be controlled much more easily than any CO2 and CH4, which have large natural sinks..  The more 'dangerous' ones are  being identified today. Most of them can be identified by satellite and  can be 'stopped', within a few months.  

Do you not rejoice that this report is showing an approach that we can all accept?

OR, because it is based upon models, should we reject it? ??

OK - back to monitoring the increasing Arctic ice extents.

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

QUANTIFYING HUMAN-INDUCED TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ON THE 2018 UNITED STATES FOUR CORNERS HYDROLOGIC AND AGRO-PASTORAL DROUGHT

https://ametsoc.net/eee/2018/3_Williams0187.pdf

Press release

https://www.news.ucsb.edu/2020/019761/warmer-dryer-browner

Thankyou for that, I passed through that area (and the 4 state crossroads), last September and everywhere was brown. There were thunderstorms aplenty, but some were so convective, you could see a line where the rain was stopping falling and going back up before it even reached the parched soil.

There are some parts of the States where civilisation is moving out, some have had enough and the kids arent staying anyway. New Mexico, bottom end of Colorado, Texas, many many empty, abandoned properties and businesses....some look like they just turned the lights off one evening and never bothered coming back.

Never mind, Donald will keep the miners in jobs.

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On 23/01/2020 at 13:14, matty40s said:

Thankyou for that, I passed through that area (and the 4 state crossroads), last September and everywhere was brown. There were thunderstorms aplenty, but some were so convective, you could see a line where the rain was stopping falling and going back up before it even reached the parched soil.

There are some parts of the States where civilisation is moving out, some have had enough and the kids arent staying anyway. New Mexico, bottom end of Colorado, Texas, many many empty, abandoned properties and businesses....some look like they just turned the lights off one evening and never bothered coming back.

Never mind, Donald will keep the miners in jobs.

maybe a little light historical reading is needed...the 1930s saw huge swathes of the mid western US crippled by drought that devastated whole areas and saw a mass exodus out of those regions...also 2019 was one of the wettest and coolest years on record for the US

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On 27/01/2020 at 19:19, cheeky_monkey said:

maybe a little light historical reading is needed...the 1930s saw huge swathes of the mid western US crippled by drought that devastated whole areas and saw a mass exodus out of those regions...also 2019 was one of the wettest and coolest years on record for the US

2019 wasn't even close to one of the coolest on record. It was in the top 30% warmest of all recorded years. Only Spring was below average, and by just 0.1F.
All that is excluding Alaska too, which had the warmest year on record.

WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV

an analysis of national temperatures and precipitation, placing the data into a historical perspective

 

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With a massive drop off in flights to China I am starting to wonder just what kind of an impact Coronavirus will have on Global temps this year?

We hear reports that shipping from China may also be impacted?

All in all lack of airplanes ,ships ,cars/trucks in China plus the slowdown in manufacturing 'lockdowns' produce might lead to a rapid clearing of dimming over China

If the outbreak goes Global (the stats for the rest of the world seem to trail China by 2 weeks....funny the incubation is also said to be 2 weeks?) then any impacting on temp we see in China may extend around the world.....

It's almost as if Mother N. is trying to show us just where we should be , Global Temp wise, were it not for the flip side of warming our pollution provides i.e 'Global Dimming'

Surely if we do see temp take a leap along the lines of Nasa's estimations from the mid noughties we will have no excuse to not take drastic action with regard to our GHG outputs?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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We Flooded (again!)

Worse than the Boxing Day floods of 2015

Burnley road was running as one with the Calder & carrying all the detritus the 'flood alleviation works' had along the valley...... barriers upon plastic barriers (all York bound now .....scaffolding gear.... materials......)

We were less flooded than in 2015 , got nowhere close (yards away!) so the work to the steam joining the Calder at Mytholmroyd IS working.

But the amount of water in the River was far higher than the 2015

But this time lots of the country saw similar and not 1 isolated region?

Solidarity to all those affected by all of this

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If you look at the areas where flood works are complete 4 you'll see river levels did not get as high as 2015 but ,sadly, they only exacerbated ther Calder's problems by efficiently dumping the flow quickly into the Calder itself?

In 2015 we were 2 steps away from breach but yesterday we didn't even get the floodwater near the Garden yet the Burnley road was hammered far worse than in 2015 (a matter of 50m from my home)

But then there are diggers up on the Grouse Moor digging trenches to drain the Moor faster and, 2 days ago, we had illegal burning of the protected sphagnum moss areas as the game keepers prepare for their chicks

This side of the Flooding MUST be properly investigated this time as the Valley folks lives should not be blighted by a glorified open air chicken run on the tops!!!

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The BBC seem to have missed this freak weather event as part of "the Earth is on fire" series, can't think why.

5f2ba668-6a87-4c00-b60f-ff622ae67f49-AP_
EU.USATODAY.COM

A rare winter storm coated Baghdad in snow Tuesday morning for only the second time in the Iraqi capital in the past century.

 

Still, they have given Greta her own show show so we shouldn't be short of expert input on how the Earth will end soon.

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BBC REPORT AMAZING SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS ON GLOBAL WARMING! TREES ARE THE PROBLEM!

Apparently scientists have discovered that when trees die they no longer use photosynthesis and so produce no oxygen!

_110863767_parastateafpgetty.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Up to a fifth of the Amazon rainforest has become a net source of CO2, research suggests.

The global elite, stunned into action, have promised to tax the poor more to solve the problem as they deforest their private Islands to make way for their new multi-billion dollar luxury complexes.

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1 hour ago, Mucka said:

The BBC seem to have missed this freak weather event as part of "the Earth is on fire" series, can't think why.

5f2ba668-6a87-4c00-b60f-ff622ae67f49-AP_
EU.USATODAY.COM

A rare winter storm coated Baghdad in snow Tuesday morning for only the second time in the Iraqi capital in the past century.

 

Still, they have given Greta her own show show so we shouldn't be short of expert input on how the Earth will end soon.

It means nothing that somewhere got a freak cold event. In the end the last few years have been the hottest in recorded history with many heat records broken every year across the world. Just because somewhere gets a rare snow event doesn't change the global trend.

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Agreed Thundersnow days!

Surely the question is 'Why' they saw such a rare event?

Could it be that the changes to the Jet Stream allow faster , more direct, transfer of cold Polar airs south and that the extra moisture the warmer atmosphere carries gives the potential for ever heavier snow once the cold floods south?

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They can't help themselves Dev

Talk of the changes when the Roman Empire collapsed and the uptake of Co2 then or the slaughter of the /Meso Americans by us and our diseases (and the resurgence of the rainforrest driven uptake then) and they get all boo-ey!

Better not mention 35,000 yrs ago and what the folk arriving in N. Australia did to the landscape/fauna there..... poor old Magalania eh?

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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12 minutes ago, Flipflop said:

The 'Polar Night Jet' has been so strong this year that it allowed very low temps in the lower strat?

This meant that , come the rising sun, we saw plenty of ozone destroyed

The other thing are the huge temp anoms around the Arctic hinting of a rapid start to spring/summer with snow cover being rapidly melted out and the land warmed?

Is this due to China laying off industry for over a month so allowing their particulate pollution to 'drop out' of the atmosphere so lessening 'global dimming' over the worst impacted regions?

Is this due to reduced air travel so a '9/11 bump in temps' under frequent travelled routes?

Is it a bit of both?

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  • 3 weeks later...

The USA has pulled all EPA monitoring of pollutants produced by Industry

As the rest of the planet sees their lowest 'Global Dimming' for decades the USA may see local upticks in the impacts of 'dimming' due to increases in the causes.

Rivers & Oceans will also see impacts as controls are 'relaxed'....... back to the oil slicks with impunity and Fish in Rivers dying en-masse.....

There must be a reckoning when this is all over!!!

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