1986/87, and the change to a milder UK climate

[Weather-history]

What caused the 1730s to be so warm for the British Isles compared to other decades in that period and this was in what people recognised as the Little Ice Age? It looked as though it actually started around 1723.

Also why did it came to an almighty crash in 1740? 

There was another "warm blip" around 1759-62

 

 

 

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Probably 1916-17, that lasted December 1916 to late April 1917 for the British Isles, comes closest  Certainly length wise, it surpassed 1947 and 1963 just not in intensity nor snow wise. It would have been horrific for the soldiers in the trenches.

1928-29 was a severe one but not as bad as the others.

Thanks

[hillbilly]

5 hours ago, snowray said:

Hi there W-h. Which winters in the early 20th century would you consider similar to the epic winters of 47 and 63, were there any from 1900 to 1945/46 that were quite that bad? Some of the winters during WW2 look particularly cold and snowy, not just in the UK but also in Europe.

Yes I believe 1917 was severe and lasted a very long time and beats every winter since with air frost totals.I once asked an old farmer which was the worst winter 1947 or 1963 and his reply was 1940.I believe the war winters were deliberately talked down as to not let the Germans know we were suffering but Europe had it just as bad if not worse.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Yes I believe 1917 was severe and lasted a very long time and beats every winter since with air frost totals.I once asked an old farmer which was the worst winter 1947 or 1963 and his reply was 1940.I believe the war winters were deliberately talked down as to not let the Germans know we were suffering but Europe had it just as bad if not worse.

Yes I was thinking about 40/41, no one ever talks about this one, December into January if I remember right was very cold with easterlies.

[hillbilly]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes I was thinking about 40/41, no one ever talks about this one, December into January if I remember right was very cold with easterlies.

January. The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). The month started with a northerly airstream, but early in the month the winds turned to the east, bringing very cold continental air. It was clear and sunny, with hard frosts at night and several frost days. There was a severe blizzard on the 16th. On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880. The morning of the 21st gave the lowest temperature of the month: -23.3C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales), the record lowest Welsh minimum, with many places continuously well beneath freezing (e.g. only -4C maximum at Boscombe Down, Wilts.). There were heavy snowfalls in Scotland, with many places cut off. By the third week the Atlantic westerlies tried to return, bringing some heavy snowfalls. Most remarkably, there was a great snow and Ice Storm during the 27-30th, peaking on the 28th, but continuing in parts into February. Mild air approaching behind warm fronts from the SW met the cold easterly all the way from Russia. There was heavy snow over the north; four feet of snow in Sheffield on the 26th, and 10' drifts reported in Bolton on the 29th. Further south the lower air was warming up and was too warm for snow, but the rain froze as it fell, coating everything with a thick layer of glaze. The effects of the freezing rain was one of the most extreme weather events of the century. The south was particularly badly affected. Everything was coated in a thick layer of ice: phone wires 1.5 mm thick were coated with a 300mm diameter sheath of ice - up to 15 times their weight. Many large tree trunks and power lines were brought down. The area affected by the glaze reached from Kent to Exmoor and the Cotswolds, and from Sussex to Cambridgeshire and the north Midlands. It was a week before all the ice thawed; some places had snow on top of the glaze, with both remaining until the 4th February. Heavy snow and a violent gale swept the southwest.

 Tom Hartleys report on January 1940

[snowray]

17 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

January. The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). The month started with a northerly airstream, but early in the month the winds turned to the east, bringing very cold continental air. It was clear and sunny, with hard frosts at night and several frost days. There was a severe blizzard on the 16th. On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880. The morning of the 21st gave the lowest temperature of the month: -23.3C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales), the record lowest Welsh minimum, with many places continuously well beneath freezing (e.g. only -4C maximum at Boscombe Down, Wilts.). There were heavy snowfalls in Scotland, with many places cut off. By the third week the Atlantic westerlies tried to return, bringing some heavy snowfalls. Most remarkably, there was a great snow and Ice Storm during the 27-30th, peaking on the 28th, but continuing in parts into February. Mild air approaching behind warm fronts from the SW met the cold easterly all the way from Russia. There was heavy snow over the north; four feet of snow in Sheffield on the 26th, and 10' drifts reported in Bolton on the 29th. Further south the lower air was warming up and was too warm for snow, but the rain froze as it fell, coating everything with a thick layer of glaze. The effects of the freezing rain was one of the most extreme weather events of the century. The south was particularly badly affected. Everything was coated in a thick layer of ice: phone wires 1.5 mm thick were coated with a 300mm diameter sheath of ice - up to 15 times their weight. Many large tree trunks and power lines were brought down. The area affected by the glaze reached from Kent to Exmoor and the Cotswolds, and from Sussex to Cambridgeshire and the north Midlands. It was a week before all the ice thawed; some places had snow on top of the glaze, with both remaining until the 4th February. Heavy snow and a violent gale swept the southwest.

 Tom Hartleys report on January 1940

Just found some charts for January 1940, I can dream...

[jules216]

Interesting topic, many elderly people here believe we have switched to mild winters after 1969 approx. This is for central Europe = Slovakia. People who would have lived between 1920 and 1990 experienced winters of 1929,1941,1947,1963,1969,1982,1986,1987. Our all time coldest temperature was measured on 11th February 1929, -41.0°C. The harshest decades were 50ties and 60ties, then the clustering of severe winters vanished apart from decent spell between 1981-1987 and surprisingly snowy period of 1998-2006 which wasn't severe overall but had long spells of snowy weather. Picture was taken from local hill outside my town from winter 1968-69

[Sunny76]

Interesting to read about the changing atmosphere in December 1987.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<2863%3ATSMWOE>2.0.CO%3B2

[Snowyowl9]

On 26/12/2019 at 17:29, Sunny76 said:

It would be interesting to pop into a time machine and relive the whole of late 1986, until the end of 1987. 
 

Knowing what we know now, from 33 years of experience, it would be interesting to see the subtle changes that took place during 1987, and indications that our climate was changing.

Maybe it was before The Great Storm in October. Was it possibly something that took place in the summer or in the April of 1987. April that year was very warm, and this was the last cold spring for a few years. 
 

Your thoughts?

Powerful new energies coming in from outer space in 1987 affecting not just here but the whole solar system.

But title is somewhat misleading as the actual year 1986 was the third coldest year in 100 years.

[Sunny76]

48 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Powerful new energies coming in from outer space in 1987 affecting not just here but the whole solar system.

But title is somewhat misleading as the actual year 1986 was the third coldest year in 100 years.

Lol, I appreciate the sarcasm. 
 

Jokes aside, maybe it was something from outer space which caused the sudden shift, but hardly doubt it.

The title refers to the winter of 86/87, until late 1987. So, we are basically talking about the last period of very cold weather in the Uk, before things turned much milder the following winter, and looking for any clues as to what may have caused the change or signs of a change during 1987.

[Snowyowl9]

We all know january 1987 was unprecidented with the coldest easterly ever uppers ever recorded so we`ll dismiss 1986-87 winter.

August 1987 it changed.

 

The wave from space would effect everything afterall we are heading into new territory with heading around the milkyway and then groups of galaxies are rotating and heading into a more cluttered area of space cloud,just looking at the bigger picture fascinating when you think about it and space is not empty either.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

We all know january 1987 was unprecidented with the coldest easterly ever uppers ever recorded so we`ll dismiss 1986-87 winter.

August 1987 it changed.

 

The wave from space would effect everything afterall we are heading into new territory with heading around the milkyway and then groups of galaxies are rotating and heading into a more cluttered area of space cloud,just looking at the bigger picture fascinating when you think about it and space is not empty either.

August 1987 had some cracking thunderstorms, on Friday 21st and into Saturday 22nd. It was also quite hot and humid around that time, despite it being an overall poor summer.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I work now in my retirement as a casual chauffeur for a certain holiday firm.  Been so since 2017.  I have to look at a lot of weather charts over the last century (as what’s available to me).  Reason being is a lot of folk I drop off and pick up are going on/been on cruises.  I remember back 70s and 80s of the notoriety of the Bay of Biscay.  That notoriety seemed to disappear, BUT in the last 3 years the stories I’m getting of delays and sheltering by cruise liners due to storms and heavy seas has drastically become apparent.  Has the disruption of and southerly shift of the jetstream occurred and causing this?  I’ll come back on this and if relevant post my full findings.....very nasty little sub low coming through there in a couple of day’s bringing severe warnings for us 

 

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I work now in my retirement as a casual chauffeur for a certain holiday firm.  Been so since 2017.  I have to look at a lot of weather charts over the last century (as what’s available to me).  Reason being is a lot of folk I drop off and pick up are going on/been on cruises.  I remember back 70s and 80s of the notoriety of the Bay of Biscay.  That notoriety seemed to disappear, BUT in the last 3 years the stories I’m getting of delays and sheltering by cruise liners due to storms and heavy seas has drastically become apparent.  Has the disruption of and southerly shift of the jetstream occurred and causing this?  I’ll come back on this and if relevant post my full findings.....very nasty little sub low coming through there in a couple of day’s bringing severe warnings for us 

 

BFTP

Well I came across the Bay of Biscay this last week expecting horrible things when looking at the forecasts. Absolutely no problems at all. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

34 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Well I came across the Bay of Biscay this last week expecting horrible things when looking at the forecasts. Absolutely no problems at all. 

That’s it’s notoriety, mill pond or dangerous seas.  Many many cruises have been delayed over last 3 years...as I say may be nothing, be something in it.  Thanks for post.
 

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Tidy up.

[Northernlights]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Well I came across the Bay of Biscay this last week expecting horrible things when looking at the forecasts. Absolutely no problems at all. 

School cruise coming back across Bay of Biscay  from Spain/Morroco  in mid September 1969 with .mountainous seas.  Remember sitting in the cafeteria  at the stern of  the ship  being part of only handful of pupils that were not really ill    watching the seas behind us     Ship head into wind and  waves  really bouncing  us up and down with the huge waves  and chairs with rubber suckers,  plates and cutlery sliding everywherej. I seemed to get my sea legs faster than others at the time . Probably did n"t realise it  at the time that the captain and crew were battling the weather. I just thought it was very exciting

A real example of equinoxial  gales .Getting off the return train at Aviemore    around the twentieth of September the  Cairngorms had their first snow cover of the season with this southerly tracking jetstream

[phil nw.]

Oh yes I have experienced stormy conditions in Biscay and the North sea when cruising in the last 5 years so the Atlantic can still rule the roost these days,if anything there appears too be more mobility in the Atlantic Winter pattern then ever in recent years.

Anyway looking at the latest Hadley cet graph of temperature anomalies and the rise since around the mid-80's is quite stark.

This picture is pretty much as i can recall over the years.

I was still at school until 1964 so can recall the severe Winter of 1963 and many quite cold spells in the 60's.The northerlies certainly had more of a sting then and i can recall polar lows occuring during that decade.

Going forward we had a little run of milder Winters early 70's then some colder ones late 70's and into the early,mid 80's before this gradual warm up in Winter became more and more apparent.

Some exceptions since then of course in 09/10 and late 2010 and some cold spells in recent years but overall they seem to be becoming less frequent and of shorter duration.  

 

   

[damianslaw]

Possibly more coincidence than anything telling, but notable all the same, since 1986/87 there has been quite a bit of commonality between early springtime cold/chill followed by summer warmth and dryness, and to a lesser extent early springtime warmth followed by summer cool/averageness.

When I say springtime I mean at least one sustained spell in either March or April (in some years both warmth and chill have occurred, where the case I will note the warmth).

I don't have the CET figures, but from knowledge see the below:

Cool/cold to warm:

April 1989 - not had a colder April since, followed by a very warm summer

March 1995 - a cold spell early on, and late one - followed by one of warmest sriest summers on record

March 1996 - cold, the summer was average at best but with some good warm weather at times

March 05 - cold early on, a warm summer

March 06 - cold until the end, very warm dry summer

March 18 - cold spells, followed by one of warmest driest summers on record

Warm to cool

April 1987 warmth - followed by chilly summer

April 2011 - followed by average at best summer

March 2012 - followed by chilly summer

One year doesn't fit well is 1990, a very mild March followed by a very warm dry summer,  1997 which produced a very mild March and April - was followed by a very warm summer. 

Just an observation, but I'm always a little nervous when we have early warmth in spring for warmth and dry weather in summer.. a bit like early cold in latter part of autumn.. for cold in winter..