1986/87, and the change to a milder UK climate

[Sunny76]

Not all have been like that. 1990, and some of the 90s and 2000s Decembers were cold. 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 26/12/2019 at 10:29, Sunny76 said:

It would be interesting to pop into a time machine and relive the whole of late 1986, until the end of 1987. 
 

Knowing what we know now, from 33 years of experience, it would be interesting to see the subtle changes that took place during 1987, and indications that our climate was changing.

Maybe it was before The Great Storm in October. Was it possibly something that took place in the summer or in the April of 1987. April that year was very warm, and this was the last cold spring for a few years. 
 

Your thoughts?

where there any subtle changes in 1987? apart from the big storm of October it wasn't really much different to the proceeding years of the mid 1980s..coldish winter followed by a coolish wet summer..nothing from my memory stands out as being odd for the time?..the winter of 87/88 did seem to mark the end of colder winters that started in the late 1930s.

[snowray]

Yes indeed, 1987 we had the heavy snow, about as bad as I have ever seen, was like a ski resort around here. Then the great storm in October of that year, massive oak trees felled right down my road, some probabley well over 100 years old with all the roads blocked, never known another year like it.

We often talk about the winters of 87, 63, and 47 as memorable for severe cold and snow, but does anyone know which winter before 1947 was as severe as these years? 

[Sunny76]

January 1987 was actually the coldest since the January 1947 snowfall. Colder than 1963, 79 and 1981/82.

[Bristawl Si]

57 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed, 1987 we had the heavy snow, about as bad as I have ever seen, was like a ski resort around here. Then the great storm in October of that year, massive oak trees felled right down my road, some probabley well over 100 years old with all the roads blocked, never known another year like it.

We often talk about the winters of 87, 63, and 47 as memorable for severe cold and snow, but does anyone know which winter before 1947 was as severe as these years? 

1st half of 1800s had many a severe winter; almost every other year looking at some archives i found on a site the other day. In fact, of last 200+ years, the 1st half of 1800s was probably most severe and frequently cold, snowy winters for the UK.

[Sunny76]

People were becoming more aware of global warming or the greenhouse effect in 1988. 
 

More documentaries were appearing during the time, regarding the issue. Seems strange how it coincided with a warmer winter in Uk.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuVZ_c32Mx0

[snowray]

32 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

1st half of 1800s had many a severe winter; almost every other year looking at some archives i found on a site the other day. In fact, of last 200+ years, the 1st half of 1800s was probably most severe and frequently cold, snowy winters for the UK.

Yes that would be the Dicken's winters. I did a study of 1940-1959 winters, some pretty cold winters in that period, and did a write up the other day which I posted in the chat and moans thread, seems only 1942/43 was the only year that I would consider mild over the 20 years. The thing is, before 1947 when was the biggest freeze before 47 I mean, was it in the 30's or further back? There must have been other events that stood out in the early 20th century.

Edited January 7, 2020 by snowray

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

People were becoming more aware of global warming or the greenhouse effect in 1988. 
 

More documentaries were appearing during the time, regarding the issue. Seems strange how it coincided with a warmer winter in Uk.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuVZ_c32Mx0

Our school geography teacher took us to an Open University lecture, back in 1973....So the history of CO2-induced climate change goes back a lot further than many folks think; and neither is it the new-fangled, New Age, tree-hugging nonsense, that many in the media and fossil fuel-business want to have us believe...

Deception was a lot easier, back then...

[Sunny76]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Our school geography teacher took us to an Open University lecture, back in 1973....So the history of CO2-induced climate change goes back a lot further than many folks think; and neither is it the new-fangled, New Age, tree-hugging nonsense, that many in the media and fossil fuel-business want to have us believe...

Deception was a lot easier, back then...

My English teacher made us aware in January 1988. I remember him telling us in great detail about the hole in the ozone layer. Most of us at the time were convince we would have skin cancer by the early 2000s.

Its since then, I’ve taken a keen interest in the climate, so I thank my english teacher for that. 

[Norrance]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

January 1987 was actually the coldest since the January 1947 snowfall. Colder than 1963, 79 and 1981/82.

The CET for the years you quoted were Jan1987 0.8C, Jan1981 0.3C, Jan1979 -0.4C andJan 1963 -2.1C so it was in fact the warmest of those years. The middle week was probably up there with the coldest but not the whole month.

[Sunny76]

18 minutes ago, Norrance said:

The CET for the years you quoted were Jan1987 0.8C, Jan1981 0.3C, Jan1979 -0.4C andJan 1963 -2.1C so it was in fact the warmest of those years. The middle week was probably up there with the coldest but not the whole month.

The month as a whole maybe, but I was talking about the cold spell itself. 

[trickydicky]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed, 1987 we had the heavy snow, about as bad as I have ever seen, was like a ski resort around here. Then the great storm in October of that year, massive oak trees felled right down my road, some probabley well over 100 years old with all the roads blocked, never known another year like it.

We often talk about the winters of 87, 63, and 47 as memorable for severe cold and snow, but does anyone know which winter before 1947 was as severe as these years? 

Read through the historic weather part of the forum. ‘Mr Data/Weather History’ did a little piece about all the severe winters from  about 1800 on when the site was new. Pre 47 in the 20th century there was one each in the teens and twenties (Possibly 1917 and 1928/29), the 30’s I think were largely green and January 1940 was very cold. 1890 and 1894/95 were very severe by modern standards also. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by trickydicky

[cheese]

On 27/12/2019 at 21:29, Sunny76 said:

This is what I hate about post 1987 weather. 1991 and a handful of 2000s/10s winters, and the trend of very bleak for cold winter lovers.

I also wonder if the milder winter weather since late 1987 has been a contributing factor to the rise in crime in UK cities, especially London. 
 

Maybe there were always little toe rags, and antisocial behaviour even in the 70s and early 80s, but the lack of snow could be part of the reason kids are bored in winter, and this leads them to get up to more mischief. 
 

The above statement is a little farcical I know, but it would be interesting to see the level of crime during the winters of 1987/88-89/90 compared to let’s say 1978/79 to 86/87. 
 

I reckon the latter years probably saw a rise in more crime. 

 

Crime was at its statistical peak in 1995 so I doubt it. London only had 84 homicides in 2014, which was the lowest on record, compared to over 200 in 2003, the highest. Both of those winters were mild but were like night and day in terms of crime. There’s no link at all as far as I’m aware.

Lack of police will be the biggest reason.

Edited January 7, 2020 by cheese

[hillbilly]

38 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

Read through the historic weather part of the forum. ‘Mr Data/Weather History’ did a little piece about all the severe winters from  about 1800 on when the site was new. Pre 47 in the 20th century there was one each in the teens and twenties (Possibly 1917 and 1928/29), the 30’s I think were largely green and January 1940 was very cold. 1890 and 1894/95 were very severe by modern standards also. 

One severe winter in each decade,might be about right for the early 1900s but there were many years where there were good wintery spells at least some time during the winter particularly,1906,08,0916,17,18,20,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,37,38 and 1939

[damianslaw]

There was a run of preety mild snowless winters from 71/72-75/76, counteracted by some cold spring and autumn months and generally poor summers though. Interesting to note the record warm summer of 76 was followed by a return to colder winters.

[trickydicky]

49 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

One severe winter in each decade,might be about right for the early 1900s but there were many years where there were good wintery spells at least some time during the winter particularly,1906,08,0916,17,18,20,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,37,38 and 1939

A while ago I found somewhere, probably on here, a list of the coldest minima recorded each year in the UK. I can’t remember when it started, late 19th or early 20th century. But it was interesting and obvious to note that for every year up until the late 80s or so, bar the odd one, the minimum temperature in the UK was in the -20s. Usually somewhere in the Scottish Highlands in the Speyside/Deeside areas but England and Wales featured as well. A -20 or lower is a very rare occurrence now and only in the Highlands, I don’t believe there has been one since December 2010. 

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

A while ago I found somewhere, probably on here, a list of the coldest minima recorded each year in the UK. I can’t remember when it started, late 19th or early 20th century. But it was interesting and obvious to note that for every year up until the late 80s or so, bar the odd one, the minimum temperature in the UK was in the -20s. Usually somewhere in the Scottish Highlands in the Speyside/Deeside areas but England and Wales featured as well. A -20 or lower is a very rare occurrence now and only in the Highlands, I don’t believe there has been one since December 2010. 

Yes I think dec 2010 was the last time -20 was breached. Feb 12 delivered a min below -15 in Yorkshire I think. Recent winters have been poor for very cold minimal largely due to lack of high pressure under a deep cold pool and snow cover. Had March 2013 come a month earlier some very cold minimal would have happened. Despite the very cold uppers there was too much wind late Feb 18 to bring very low minima.

[Sunny76]

To add, the last day of February 1987 recorded a daytime max of 16c, which was the warmest since 1961, up until that date. 
 

But, that was just a mild day in an otherwise chilly period.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

To add, the last day of February 1987 recorded a daytime max of 16c, which was the warmest since 1961, up until that date. 
 

But, that was just a mild day in an otherwise chilly period.

The cold returned in March 1987, with a fair number of places receiving lots of snow.  April was one of the warmest on record, followed by a cooler May.  Strange year indeed was 1987, what with the great storm in October, too!

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, Don said:

The cold returned in March 1987, with a fair number of places receiving lots of snow.  April was one of the warmest on record, followed by a cooler May.  Strange year indeed was 1987, what with the great storm in October, too!

So, maybe there was evidence of a shift taking place during the summer of that year. 
 

Although it was poor overall, the hot spells in July also were accompanied by more humidity. 
 

Greece had a killer heatwave that summer also, so maybe this was another early sign that something was changing.

Back to 1980, and the Eastern US was suffering from a long heatwave, lasting for 3 months. Maybe another side effect of a changing climate.

[Weather-history]

13 hours ago, snowray said:

 I did a study of 1940-1959 winters, some pretty cold winters in that period, and did a write up the other day which I posted in the chat and moans thread, seems only 1942/43 was the only year that I would consider mild over the 20 years.

I would definitely consider 1948-49 and 1956-57 as mild winters in that period and add in 1948-49 and 1949-50

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Weather-history

[Chesil View]

Interesting to see talk of 1987. Famous for the October storm obviously but the most anomalous event  in that year was the January cold spell which gave the coldest week in Southern England since 1740.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I would definitely consider 1948-49 and 1956-57 as mild winters in that period and add in 1948-49 and 1949-50

 

Hi there W-h. Which winters in the early 20th century would you consider similar to the epic winters of 47 and 63, were there any from 1900 to 1945/46 that were quite that bad? Some of the winters during WW2 look particularly cold and snowy, not just in the UK but also in Europe.

[mushymanrob]

without reading every reply to this thread...

i simply dont agree with this premis as it covers far too shorter timeframe.

for example, i remember the mid winters of the early 70's, there was an article on "nationwide" about how early the spring was, and i was only "snowed off" whilst i was working only once between 1973 and 1977 (although i was at college for one of those years).

viewing the daily temp records for january off the "torro" website, and grouping timeframes into 30 year blocks..we see that from 1990-2019 only 5 january days were the record temps, compared with 11 for 1960-1989, 9 for 1930 - 1959, and 12 prior to 1929.

to me that suggests that there has always been mild januaries, mixed with colder ones. if the average max temp is around 7-6c , then that average suggests that cold snowy years are actually quite rare.

ive used january, but these firgures will probably transfer to december and february too.

the deepest snow i saw locally was december 1990, (i think) and the 2 coldest snowiest marches ive seen in my 62 years were in 2013 and 2018.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Hi there W-h. Which winters in the early 20th century would you consider similar to the epic winters of 47 and 63, were there any from 1900 to 1945/46 that were quite that bad? Some of the winters during WW2 look particularly cold and snowy, not just in the UK but also in Europe.

Probably 1916-17, that lasted December 1916 to late April 1917 for the British Isles, comes closest  Certainly length wise, it surpassed 1947 and 1963 just not in intensity nor snow wise. It would have been horrific for the soldiers in the trenches.

1928-29 was a severe one but not as bad as the others.