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Roger J Smith

January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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Mild with close to average rainfall:

6.0C and 84mm

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5.3c for me please. 

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... five late entries (1 day) have been added in ... also five that are two days late ... watch for further edits ...

 

Table of entries -- CET and EWP forecasts for January 2020

 

Happy New Year ... the entries are shown with the order of entry in brackets. If anyone changes a CET forecast but maintains their earlier EWP, then two orders of entry are shown, the second applies to the earlier EWP entry. It will be a decimal because the original value went to the next CET forecast submitted. Also, at the bottom of the table of entries, the EWP entries are listed in rank order since this primary table uses CET values for its order.

Late entries (one day) have the order L1-1 to L1-5.

Late entries (two days) have the order L2-1 to L2-5.

 

CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (entry) __________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (entry)

9.5 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (4) _____________ 5.2 __ 112.0 __ Weather26 (6

8.1 __ ------ __ shillitocet (28) ___________________5.2 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley (42

7.8 __ ------ __ coldest winter (26) _______________ 5.2 ___ 54.0 __ snowray (54

7.7 __ 250.0 __ igloo (24) ______________________5.2 __ ------ __ fozfoster (74)

7.4 ___ 66.9 __ Roger J Smith (18) ______________ 5.1 __ 110.0 __ Mapantz (12

7.4 ___ 60.0 __ syed2878 (19) __________________5.1 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (40

7.1 ___ ------ __ Andrew R (L1-4) ________________

6.9 ___ 64.0 __ SLEETY (10) ___________________5.1 ___ 98.0 __ Joneseye (61

6.6 ___ 99.0 __ Dog Toffee (22) _________________5.0 ___ 57.0 __ Mr Maunder (38

6.5 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (63) __________________4.9 __ 137.7 __ Let It Snow! (8)

6.3 ___ 24.0 __ ChrisBell-nottheWxman (35) ______ 4.9 ___ 65.0 __ Carl46Wrexham (52)

6.3 __ 102.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (2) ______ 4.8 ___ 59.4 __ lottiekent (29) 

6.2 ___ 80.0 __ mb018538 (70) ________________ 4.8 __ 115.0 __ Earthshine (47

6.1 ___ 54.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L2-1) ___

6.0 ___ 99.0 __ virtualsphere (36) _______________4.8 ___ 70.0 __ Godber 1 (51

6.0 ___ 84.0 __ Reef (66) _____________________ 4.7 ___ 55.2 __ CheesepuffScott (17, 1.5

6.0 ___ 65.0 __ Booferking (L2-4) _______________

5.9 ___ 60.0 __ The PIT(16) ___________________ 4.7 __ ------ __ summer blizzard (37

5.9 ___ 44.0 __ Feb91Blizzard (56) ______________4.7 __ 101.0 __ Relativistic (41

5.8 __ 130.0 __ stewfox (15) ___________________ 4.7 ___ 82.5 __ Robbie Garrett (43

5.8 __ ------ __ Froze were the Days (55) __________4.7 __ ------ __ damianslaw (53

5.8 __ 100.0 __ Don (60) ______________________ 4.7 ___ 80.3 __ Midlands Ice Age (67

5.8 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (73) ______________4.7 __ 100.0 __ J10 (72

5.8 ___ 69.0 __ Ultima Thule (L1-5) ______________ 4.7 ___ 95.7 __ average 1990-2019

5.7 __ 141.3 __ Polar Gael (7) __________________4.6 ___ 78.0 __ Bobd29 (1

5.7 __ ------ __ Dancerwithwings (31) _____________4.6 ___ 88.0 __ nn2013 (27

5.7 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (48) ______________4.6 ___ 37.0 __ seaside60 (57)

5.7 ___ 94.0 __ Stargazer (L1-1) ________________ 4.6 ___ 90.0 __ freeze (L1-2

5.6 ___ 76.0 __ SteveB (30) ____________________4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Twilight (5

5.6 ___65.2__Thundery Wintry Showers (44, 29.5) __4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Mr TOAD (25

5.6 ___ 65.0 __ weather-history (50) _____________ 4.4 ___ 83.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (20

5.6 __ ------ __ Beet (58) _______________________4.4 __ 93.0  __ average 1981-2010 

5.6 ___ 68.0 __ Kentspur (L2-2) __________________

5.6 ___ 59.0 __ February1978 (L2-5) ______________

5.5 __ 105.0 __ timmytour (14) ___________________4.3 __ ------ __ Kentish Man (64

5.5 ___ 95.0 __ General Cluster (21) ______________ 4.2 __ 105.0 __ JeffC (9

5.5 __ 100.5 __ DR(S)NO (23) ___________________ 4.2 __ ------ __ badgers01 (71

5.5 ___ 66.0 __ Stationary Front (45) ______________ 4.1 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (33)

5.5 __ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (65) ______________4.1 ___ 41.0 __ Cymro (39

5.5 ___ 71.0 __ Pinball Wizard (L2-3) ______________ 

5.4 __ 117.0 __ brmbrmcar (34) ___________________4.0 ___ 87.0 __ Emmett Garland (62

5.4 ___ 60.0 __ Mulzy (59) _______________________3.9 __ 124.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (3

5.3 ___ 81.0 __ BornFromTheVoid (46) _____________3.9 ___ 67.0 __ daniel* (49

5.3 __ ------ __ Sundog (68) ______________________ 3.7 __ ------ __ prolongedSnowLover (11

5.3 ___ 66.0 __ davehsug (69) ____________________ 3.7 ___ 45.0 __ DAVID SNOW (32

5.35 ___ 80.15 __ consensus ____________________ 3.1 ___ 75.0 __ jonboy (L1-3) 

____________________________________________ --0.5 __ ------ __ Timbo (13

 

74 on-time entries, and five that were one day late, five that are two days late ...

__ 84 total entries, median value (consensus) is 5.4 C

=============================================================================

EWP entries in order

120.1-200 _ igloo 250 __ LG 200 __ PG 141.3 __ LIS 137.7 __ stew 130 __ KW 124.2

108.1-120 _ brm 117 __ Earth 115 __ wx26 112 __ Map 110

100.1-108 _ JeffC, tim 105 __ IRA252 102 __ Rel 101 __ DR(S)NO 100.5

 90.1-100 _ Don, J10 100 __ DogT, virt 99 __ Jones 98 __ 1990-2019 95.7 __ GC 95 __ star 94 __ 1981-2010 93.0

 80.1- 90 _ fre 90 __ nn 88 __EG 87 __ Twi, MrT 85 __ Reef 84 __ Rad 83 __ RG 82.5 __ BFTV 81 __ MIA 80.3 

 68.1-80 _ mb 80 __ Bobd 78 __ SteveB 76 __ jon 75 __ PWiz 71 __ Godb 70 __ UT 69

 60.1-68 _ Kent 68 __ dan* 67 __ RJS 66.9 __ SF, daveh 66 __ TWS 65.2 __ w-h, Carl, Norr, Boof 65 __ SLE 64

 50.1-60 _ PIT, syed, Mul 60 __ lott 59.4 __ Feb78 59 __ MrM 57 __ CPS 55.2 __ snow, BFTP 54 

 00.1-50 _ DS 45 __ Feb91 44 __ cymro 41 __ sea 37 __ ChrisB 24

_______________________

55 entries (on time) plus four that were one day late, and another five that are two days late ... 64 total.

median = consensus avg 32nd, 33rd ranked 80.15 mm. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Table of entries was posted a few minutes before the midnight deadline, I was fearful of losing work in progress as my power has been flickering this afternoon (here) after a heavy snowfall. You can only imagine. 

Anyway, the consensus values are 5.25 C and 82.5 mm, so a relatively mild and dry January is the overall impression. 

You can of course continue to enter until the end of the 3rd of January. Later entries will be edited into the table as received. 

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Just when you think its going to be a dryer month the models start throwing out wetter charts for the next 2 weeks.

Was convinced down here was going to be high pressure dominated for most of the month.

Think I might be to low now on the precip side of things.

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late entry by me I will go for 3.1 and 75mm

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