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Roger J Smith

January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bloody 'ell chris, thats optimistic, hope it comes off, the precip that is

Inside information!😜  Likely to be a very dry month, though I suspect I'm low for the Hadley average.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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A very difficult month to call.

In December my normal CET contest measure suggested average and I went for that while my analogue set suggested 5.3C which is close to our corrected mark of 5.6-5.8 most likely.

This month we see a marked split with my normal method suggesting 5.4C but my analogue set suggesting a marked cool down to 3.3C. They also suggested a strong SSW signal (vs the norm) between the 6th-18th though.

I will back my normal method but factor in that you have to get to the 14th most spotless year before you find a January warmer than 4.7C (we are third or fourth).

..

4.7C, a mixed month and largely a repeat of the more traditional n-s split of December between the 5th-25th. Look for winter to finally arrive (in terms of a proper attempt) in the final week of the month.

 

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I would like to revise my January CET guess down to 5.6C please as I get an impression that high pressure will often be centred further north than I previously envisaged.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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A fairly mild month, 4.7 degrees, all that bottled up cold over the Arctic will eventually spill its way over the UK latter part of the month, with some brief attempts at doing so in the north earlier on. Could be quite a dry one as well - dry and mild don't often go together in January.

Its notable how mild the first 10 days of January have been since 2011, not had any cold weather since, had to wait until mid-month for colder weather at times, 2013 most notably so, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017 and last year to a lesser degree.

What is betting March opens out far colder than January.. most likely..

 

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On 23/12/2019 at 12:57, snowray said:

6.1c,  97mm please.

Can I change mine please, thinking a bit colder now and less ppn.

5.2c,  54 mm. Thanks

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The driest month for a while overall one thinks esp for most of the southern half.

How far over us will the high get, how much cooler air will form with little winds.
Its been far cooler here than what was suggested for this last weekend and after.

Lets go for 4.6c

and 37mm.

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