January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Feb 1779 is the oldest of the monthly records, the next two are May 1833 and June 1846. The order from then on is Jan 1916, Mar 1957, Nov 1994, Aug 1995, Oct 2001, July and Sept 2006, Apr 2011 and Dec 2015.

For some reason the first half of the calendar year has resisted the onslaught of warmer months more than the second half of the calendar year. 

Before March 1957, these were the warmest months to that time (Feb, May, June and Jan obviously same as now):

March 1938, Apr 1865, July 1783, Aug 1947, Sept 1729, Oct 1921, Nov 1818 and Dec 1934.

These months later held the top spot ... Apr 2007, July 1983, August 1975, October 1969 and Dec 1974 was tied with 1934 until 2015.

The furthest from top spot you have to go to find a month from before 1800 would be October where 1731 is tied 14th warmest. Every other month has at least one top eight month from the 18th century.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[North-Easterly Blast]

8 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Feb 1779 is the oldest of the monthly records, the next two are May 1833 and June 1846. The order from then on is Jan 1916, Mar 1957, Nov 1994, Aug 1995, Oct 2001, July and Sept 2006, Apr 2011 and Dec 2015.

For some reason the first half of the calendar year has resisted the onslaught of warmer months more than the second half of the calendar year. 

Before March 1957, these were the warmest months to that time (Feb, May, June and Jan obviously same as now):

March 1938, Apr 1865, July 1783, Aug 1947, Sept 1729, Oct 1921, Nov 1818 and Dec 1934.

These months later held the top spot ... Apr 2007, July 1983, August 1975, October 1969 and Dec 1974 was tied with 1934 until 2015.

The furthest from top spot you have to go to find a month from before 1800 would be October where 1731 is tied 14th warmest. Every other month has at least one top eight month from the 18th century.

Well in the first half of the year we first broke the April record in 2007 then four years later we broke it again, so that is one month in the first half of the year that has had its record broken twice in the last 15 years.  I have to say that the Dec 2015 record is a very strong record and will likely stand for over a century. 

[Don]

7 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I have to say that the Dec 2015 record is a very strong record and will likely stand for over a century. 

I’m not so sure it will stand for over a century with the continuing warming climate.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I’m not so sure it will stand for over a century with the continuing warming climate.

It was more than 1C above the previous record and 5.1C above the 1981-2010 average and required synoptic perfection lasting through the month. While climate change does increase the probability of severe events the fact that no other monthly record is more than 3.8C above the 1981-2010 average suggests that we may get a few extreme cases into the second but it is exceptionally unlikely that it will be broken anytime soon.

[Roger J Smith]

The May 1833 record will also be difficult to break. It is almost as far out in front as Dec 2015 (+1.2 ahead of second place). This modern warming trend has not really found much opportunity in May. Of the top sixteen Mays, only five have been since 1947 and only six since 1848. 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The May 1833 record will also be difficult to break. It is almost as far out in front as Dec 2015 (+1.2 ahead of second place). This modern warming trend has not really found much opportunity in May. Of the top sixteen Mays, only five have been since 1947 and only six since 1848. 

The first half of a May 08 was on par I believe but it did not have the legs.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The May 1833 record will also be difficult to break. It is almost as far out in front as Dec 2015 (+1.2 ahead of second place). This modern warming trend has not really found much opportunity in May. Of the top sixteen Mays, only five have been since 1947 and only six since 1848. 

Same with the top 10 for June, only 1970 and 1976 are what you can call modern. Most are way way back, which is odd when you consider the top 10 for April and July. So why is that period May-June been a struggle whilst the periods either side have been less of a struggle?

Edited February 15, 2020 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Same with the top 10 for June, only 1970 and 1976 are what you can call modern. Most are way way back, which is odd when you consider the top 10 for April and July. So why is that period May-June been a struggle whilst the periods either side have been less of a struggle?

I wonder if it relates to changes in seasonal wavelengths. We know for example that May-June tends to differ in weather more than July-August for example because it's a time when in late May-Early June you usually see a change in weather pattern. To get hot months i guess you need that change to occur like 2018 and persist. 

[Snowyowl9]

On 14/02/2020 at 15:51, Don said:

I’m not so sure it will stand for over a century with the continuing warming climate.

Only a few years before we had december 2010 which was 1c colder than 1981 now it depends on the winds direction patterns upper air is just as cold and that maybe about to get much colder if solar min has any affect,surface and sea temps are warming,with much more friction and energy driving these literally alien weather patterns since 2007 especially many,more volcanoes heating the oceans

Edited February 15, 2020 by Snowyowl9