January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall up to 55.8mm 68.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

6.4c to the 30th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Timmytour]

20 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The earlier forecasts are probably a mixture of those wanting to go cold (easier to do when you can\t see much of the month on the current model run) or people resigned to a mild outcome no matter what so they would like first go at their value that they figure they will be choosing later anyway. 

Or the sheer excitement of seeing the thread?

 

The amount of times I have though I'd wait to see what the models are looking like just before the month starts.....and ended up forgetting to put a forecast in altogether!   I go early to be in with a chance!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +2.1C above normal so tying with 2007 and unless we get to 13 degrees overnight we have missed out on a new record. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

We don't often see a provisional CET for the last day of the month without the final version being posted, but it's there today (6.5 C after 31st came in at 9.9, not quite a record value). 

Meanwhile the most likely finish for the EWP is now estimated at 81-82 mm. The tracker says 80 mm to 30th and the map for amounts on 31st is mostly a dry slate but a few pockets of 10-20 in Wales and Cumbria might mean 1 or even 2 for the day. I will have the preliminary estimate for scoring tomorrow and the final table value on the 5th.

[Don]

Well, that’s December and January both write offs.

[Roger J Smith]

My LRF is doing pretty well (for an alchemist). 

[snowray]

I thought yesterday would come in as a CET of around 10c, a very mild  day with lots of 12c temps recorded. I have only changed my entry 2 or 3 times since I started and I have always been closest on my original forecast, changed from 6.1c this time so pretty close again, sod's law.

[Roger J Smith]

Never second guess yourself, that's what everyone else is here to do.

 

[summer blizzard]

With a provisional of 6.5C I would think that 6.3C is our most likely outcome so the warmest since 2008.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hasn't felt  that warm, mild/very mild yes.

[Roger J Smith]

No update on the CET, tick tock ...

But the EWP tracker has stopped moving at 81 mm. Will be back with a slightly revised leaderboard (a few posts back I had one for an 80 mm finish). Born From the Void hit the target right on. Other top scores for January and the two-month annual totals in a few minutes ...

[Roger J Smith]

Subject to final confirmation on 5th (from table value) the EWP scoring for January and two-month annual contest totals ...

rank ___ (Jan 2020) ________________ (contest 2 mo) ______ points

_01 ___ Born from the Void (81 mm) ___ Radiating Dendrite ___ 19.19

_02 ___ Midlands Ice Age (80.3 mm)___ Reef ______________ 18.13

_03 ___ mb018538 (80 mm) __________Emmett Garland _____ 17.39

_04 ___ Robbie Garrett (82.5 mm) _____ Pinball Wizard _______16.90

_05 ___ Radiating Dendrite (83 mm) ____Kentspur ___________16.82

_06 ___ Reef (84 mm) _______________Robbie Garrett ______ 16.59

_07 ___ Bobd29 (78 mm) t6 Jan _______Twilight ____________ 16.51

_08 ___ Twilight (85 mm) _____________Thundery Wintry Shwrs _ 15.85

_09 ___ Mr TOAD (85 mm - 2nd ent) ____mb018538 __________15.70

_10 ___ SteveB (76 mm) _____________ Stationary Front _____ 15.31

______________________________________________________________

11th to 22nd places in annual contest at present ... 

11 Jonboy (14.90), 12 Don (14.19), 13 Relativistic (14.03), 14 Midlands Ice Age (13.89)

15 Virtualsphere (13.63), 16 General Cluster (13.53), 17 J10 (13.24)

18 Dog Toffee (13.20), 19 Godber.1 (13.05), 20 davehsug (12.52)

21 Bobd29 (12.25), 22 Dr(S)No (12.02).

======================================================================

These standings will change slightly unless the final value is 81.0 mm, as some of the scoring is currently based on tied values that may be differently ranked after a decimal place is used, but as long as the outcome is 80.5 to 81.5 all changes would be quite small.

Watch for an update around the 5th on final scoring for month and contest year. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

BTW @Summer Sun  -  Any idea what the January CET is yet? - still says provisional on the page i use.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW @Summer Sun  -  Any idea what the January CET is yet? - still says provisional on the page i use.

Nothing updated since the 31st when it was provisionally 6.53c 

Could be a number of reasons why it's down from illness to one or more stations not reporting data

[Roger J Smith]

Still waiting for the official January CET ... it could be a few more days, I seem to recall this happening in early Feb before, indicating a key Met Office employee might be on holiday at this time of year. Anyway, while we wait, here is the leaderboard for the most likely outcome of 6.3 (based on past adjustments). Numbers in brackets are the order of entry. I have retained the EWP forecasts to indicate who might be doing well in the combined forecast (81 mm was the provisional report we had for EWP). In fact this would also be the leaderboard for 6.4 except that Norrance would move past mb018538 into third place, SLEETY would move up several spots ahead of The PIT, and Andrew R. would show up at end of the pack (with a late penalty, lower than all the 5.7 entries). 

CET Leaderboard based on 6.3 C

 

6.3 __ 102.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (2) 

6.3 ___ 24.0 __ ChrisBell-nottheWxman (35) 

6.2 ___ 80.0 __ mb018538 (70) ___ best combined forecast

6.5 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (63) 

6.1 ___ 54.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L2-1) 

6.6 ___ 99.0 __ Dog Toffee (22) 

6.0 ___ 99.0 __ virtualsphere (36) 

6.0 ___ 84.0 __ Reef (66) 

6.0 ___ 65.0 __ Booferking (L2-4) 

5.9 ___ 60.0 __ The PIT(16) 

5.9 ___ 44.0 __ Feb91Blizzard (56) 

5.8 __ 130.0 __ stewfox (15) 

5.8 __ ------ __ Froze were the Days (55) 

5.8 __ 100.0 __ Don (60) 

5.8 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (73) 

5.8 ___ 69.0 __ Ultima Thule (L1-5) 

5.7 __ 141.3 __ Polar Gael (7)

6.9 ___ 64.0 __ SLEETY (10)

5.7 __ ------ __ Dancerwithwings (31)

5.7 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (48) 

5.7 ___ 94.0 __ Stargazer (L1-1) 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[cheese]

Rainfall: 

Sun:

 

Confirms what I already knew, this month was sunny and dry in the NE’ern part of England (and NE Scotland by the looks of it). Big contrast between W of Pennines and E.

Edited February 5, 2020 by cheese

[reef]

17 hours ago, cheese said:

Rainfall: 

Sun:

 

Confirms what I already knew, this month was sunny and dry in the NE’ern part of England (and NE Scotland by the looks of it). Big contrast between W of Pennines and E.

Yes it was a mild, dry and sunny winter month here. We managed 85hrs of sunshine, 149% of average. That's only 6hrs short of the record. It was the second warmest since 1980 with a mean 0.3C short of 2007.

[Roger J Smith]

Looks like somebody came back from their time off, perhaps checking into the climate of Barcelona? Anyway, the numbers are slowly coming together over at CET h.q., at the moment I checked 24 days of finalized CET now appear as well as an update of provisional February numbers to the 4th. From a comparison of final to provisional January numbers, I could foresee the adjustment being about 0.2 so that 6.3 table may stand the test. (the days they have are a mixture of downward changes and similar to before, not much upward adjustment so far) -- also they have daily data posted for EWP (Jan) but no numbers in tables yet. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Incredible that I was so far off on the ppn. but almost exactly correct on the CET.

[Summer Sun]

Hadley has now lost its data for January and only has updated figures to the 4th for February

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Hadley has now lost its data for January and only has updated figures to the 4th for February

Oh dear....

[Snowyowl9]

Whats happened computer glitch.

[Weather26]

Well they better get the January data back fast otherwise we'll have a 2020 average that's inaccurate! 

[qwertyK]

1 hour ago, Weather26 said:

Well they better get the January data back fast otherwise we'll have a 2020 average that's inaccurate! 

I'm sure they'll do this closer to the time, haven't we all basically agreed here that the CET for January was about 6.3