January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

In my research I have found some correlation between the two (NMP and PV) but there are obviously climatological forcing factors that continue no matter where the NMP wanders, it's more like a shift in overall tendencies for the various positions and also a blocking factor as shown by recently posted material in my climate change thread (arctic Canada), just posted some data from Eureka on Ellesmere Island and it's pretty clear that milder air masses now have somewhat easier access to that far northern location than they did in the mid-20th century when the NMP was much closer to them than it is now. By the 1990s with the NMP drifting west away from arctic islands of Canada, all three locations that I studied began to experience occasional inflow of mild southern-origin air flows that suggested a new variable, occasional positioning of a polar vortex over the Beaufort Sea. But think of it as a background signal more than a game-changing forcer of circulation patterns. For one thing, the magnetic field is weakening so if it did have a correlation, that would also be weakening. 

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Change of subject to EWP update. Haven't provided one in a while. The current value appears to be 48 mm and the ten-day GFS is rather dry with perhaps 10-15 to be added, then the later part of the GFS run looks similar, 10-15 mm. It would all add up to around 68-78 mm in total, a rather dry scenario for January. 

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Another update about the running CET. A week ago I posted a list of 23 Januaries that were running 7.0 or higher. Now as of the 15th that total drops to nine as shown in this list (2020 if we assume 7.2 after corrections to this point ranks tied 8th with 2005). There were quite a few more around 6.7 or 6.8. The very mild Jan of 1796 was among those, on its way up rather than down like many of these.

2007 _ 8.1

1873 _ 8.0

1975 _ 8.0

1950 _ 7.9

1976 _ 7.9

1916 _ 7.6

1983 _ 7.4

2005 _ 7.2

1998 _ 7.0

[summer blizzard]

9 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Indeed, I remember heavy snow coming down when West Brom hosted Man City on Boxing Day, before an excellent anticyclonic spell set in thereafter (ending New Year). Then numerous attacks from the north-west throughout January and early February brought a few low-level snowfalls to my then home in Brum. Mid-February I was hiking in the Lake District (can't recall where exactly), and I remember the landscape being green and brown before we began one of our ascents. When we descended out of the mists everything was beautifully white.

Definitely an underrated season.

As the CET would suggest it was all in all a good average winter. Very sunny with long settled spells though which is why I tend to think of it as a poor mans version of winter 2006.

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 15th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.9C +2.4C above average. Rainfall Unchanged.

[damianslaw]

Probably the peak of the CET tomorrow, after another very day, 7.5 degrees?, a climb down then expected for the foreseeable thanks to much colder nights. Too difficult to call how things might eventually pan out, but a return at least 2 degrees above normal looks very plausible, really need a notably cold second half to bring it down closer to near average, and this looks highly unlikely, not to say we couldn't shave off a couple of degrees if we sustained some quite cold conditions.

 

[summer blizzard]

Models show no further rain here for at least a week, it will be interesting to see where we end up.

[Roger J Smith]

Would say 6.2 and 55 mm will be close to the final values.

[damianslaw]

On 15/01/2020 at 15:14, Relativistic said:

Indeed, I remember heavy snow coming down when West Brom hosted Man City on Boxing Day, before an excellent anticyclonic spell set in thereafter (ending New Year). Then numerous attacks from the north-west throughout January and early February brought a few low-level snowfalls to my then home in Brum. Mid-February I was hiking in the Lake District (can't recall where exactly), and I remember the landscape being green and brown before we began one of our ascents. When we descended out of the mists everything was beautifully white.

Definitely an underrated season.

Winter 14/15 was ok here, we did see a few snowfalls many didn't produce much more than an inch or two, with rapid thaws, more so in late Jan/early Feb thanks to polar maritime air. What I would describe as a fairly average winter, with nothing especially cold, but it at least felt like winter, unlike 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and 18/19 and this winter so far. Perhaps we are just being dealt a poor hand at the moment.. we did see a lengthy spell between Feb 1997 and Dec 2008 that brought no real sustained cold (1 week +), but then a rapid change that winter. Solar minima might have been a factor, the run of cold winters coming just after solar minima, which will occur next winter.

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 16th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[reef]

We're on 7.4C to the 17th, some 3.1C above the 1981-2010 average.

Our mildest January on record was 2007 on 6.9C. The remaining 14 days of this month require a mean of 6.4C to beat it.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 44mm 54,3% of the monthly average.

The next five days should see a drop. Aside from the cool spell no sign of any deep cold and the only white stuff on offer is frost.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let the falls commenth albeit ridiculously small falls

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 17th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.9C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 45.9mm 56.7% of the monthly average.

[qwertyK]

I thought the record CET was 7.5 in 1916?

 

Could this be a record breaking january or will the cold snap that has started return it to something less mild?

[igloo]

6 hours ago, qwertyK said:

I thought the record CET was 7.5 in 1916?

 

Could this be a record breaking january or will the cold snap that has started return it to something less mild?

well if these charts verify we could still do it it's one beast of a Bartlet this chart.more likely Feb will be a heatwave t shirts and shorts who no's there's a first for everything 

Edited January 18, 2020 by igloo

[Man With Beard]

7 hours ago, qwertyK said:

I thought the record CET was 7.5 in 1916?

 

Could this be a record breaking january or will the cold snap that has started return it to something less mild?

There could be a drop to the mid 6s by the end of the week, will probably be tough to get back to record breaking levels again afterwards. 

[Snowyowl9]

-6c in the south CET zone last night

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.8C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Should be a bigger jump down tomorrow unless temps during the day go above 8C.

[Summer Sun]

7.2c to the 18th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Don]

15 hours ago, igloo said:

well if these charts verify we could still do it it's one beast of a Bartlet this chart.more likely Feb will be a heatwave t shirts and shorts who no's there's a first for everything 

Just do one winter 2019/20!

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 19th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.6C +2.2C above normal and rainfall still at 45.9mm 56.7% of the monthly average.

A small fall tomorrow then it should be a slow rise again so looks like the warmest Jan on record for us is pretty well nailed on.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was at 64 mm after 19 days, probably still is now, and will add perhaps 10-15 mm by end of the month on current guidance. The predictions in that zone (74-79 mm) include these (65 to 85 mm to give a wider margin of error) ... I have included their CET forecasts and also all CET forecasts 6.0 and above if not already part of the EWP set. The top CET forecasts may not score as well as some left off this list, if we finish below 6.5 especially. Numbers in brackets are order of entry. Bold print shows the top contenders for best combined (assuming 6.6, 80).

======================================

 

9.5 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (4) 

8.1 __ ------ __ shillitocet (28) 

7.8 __ ------ __ coldest winter (26) 

7.7 __ 250.0 __ igloo (24) 

7.4 ___ 66.9 __ Roger J Smith (18) 

7.4 ___ 60.0 __ syed2878 (19) 

7.1 ___ ------ __ Andrew R (L1-4) 

6.9 ___ 64.0 __ SLEETY (10) 

6.6 ___ 99.0 __ Dog Toffee (22) 

6.5 ___ 65.0 __ Norrance (63) 

6.3 ___ 24.0 __ ChrisBell-nottheWxman (35) 

6.3 __ 102.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (2) 

6.2 ___ 80.0 __ mb018538 (70) 

6.1 ___ 54.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L2-1) 

6.0 ___ 99.0 __ virtualsphere (36)

6.0 ___ 84.0 __ Reef (66) 

6.0 ___ 65.0 __ Booferking (L2-4) 

(EWP contenders only below this)

5.8 ___ 69.0 __ Ultima Thule (L1-5)

5.6 ___ 76.0 __ SteveB (30) 

5.6 ___ 65.2 __ Thundery Wintry Showers (44, 29.5)

5.6 ___ 65.0 __ weather-history (50)

5.6 ___ 68.0 __ Kentspur (L2-2)

5.5 ___ 66.0 __ Stationary Front (45) 

5.5 ___ 71.0 __ Pinball Wizard (L2-3)

5.3 ___ 81.0 __ BornFromTheVoid (46)

5.3 ___ 66.0 __ davehsug (69)

4.9 ___ 65.0 __ Carl46Wrexham (52)

4.8 ___ 70.0 __ Godber 1 (51)

4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Twilight (5) 

4.5 ___ 85.0 __ Mr TOAD (25) 

4.4 ___ 83.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (20) 

3.9 ___ 67.0 __ daniel* (49)

3.1 ___ 75.0 __ jonboy (L1-3)

___

 

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 20th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st