January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

What makes you think that, it's very unlikely to see January and Feb both above 6c,in the same year, has that even happened. 

So your obviously going for another Azores, euro trash dominated month then? 

1916.  Yes I’m expecting after a ‘false chance’ early Feb for some very mild weather and even more HP in the wrong place.  Front loaded winter, more like front loaded autumn.  Feb to be rather Spring like....but I anticipate a very chilly Spring

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Mildest Jan-Feb pairs arranged in order of lower CET valiue ... and yes it has happened that both exceeded 6.0

1990 _ 6.5, 7.3

1846 _ 6.3, 6.4

1733 _ 6.9, 6.0

1686 _ 6.5, 6.0

1989 _ 6.1, 5.9

2007 _ 7.0, 5.8

2014 _ 5.7, 6.2

1869 _ 5.6, 7.5

1834 _ 7.1, 5.6

1923 _ 5.6, 5.6

2002 _ 5.5, 7.0

1974 _ 5.9, 5.4

1761 _ 5.4, 5.8

Edited January 14, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

1916.  Yes I’m expecting after a ‘false chance’ early Feb for some very mild weather and even more HP in the wrong place.  Front loaded winter, more like front loaded autumn.  Feb to be rather Spring like....but I anticipate a very chilly Spring

 

BFTP

No, not 1916. I think most members on here would take February 1916 after the winter so far. CET of 3.8C

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

No, not 1916. I think most members on here would take February 1916 after the winter so far. CET of 3.8C

 

Feb 1916 actually started quite mild I believe but then turned into a much colder pattern in the second half of that month which continued into a very cold March that year.  1916 is a bit similar to 1983 in many respects in that in 1916 after the exceptionally mild January had a very cold month from mid February to mid March, whereas 1983 also saw a notably mild   January but then saw cold weather for most of the February that year, making it a well below average month.

Edited January 14, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

No, not 1916. I think most members on here would take February 1916 after the winter so far. CET of 3.8C

 

It was the last week then that skew whiffed the CET then.  The First 3 weeks were very mild indeed.  1 cold week leading to a very cold March

 

 

 BFTP

Edited January 14, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 13th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like finishing in the mid to high 6’s unless we see a dramatic turnaround in fortunes.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that the warmest January since at least 2008 looks favourable.  We may not reach the 1916 record but I think it is looking very likely that we will see a final CET over 6*C which would still be very mild indeed for January.  No strong ENSO event like that year, a neutral QBO and low solar activity and yet we are still going to end up with a depressingly high CET for this month.  If low solar activity and neutral ENSO still gives us a notably mild January / winter month, then is it any longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop in the UK?

Edited January 14, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

... is it any longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop in the UK?

Yes.

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Yes.

How can you say that?  We have not really had what could be reasonably described as a prolonged notable cold spell in the UK since 2012-13.

[Roger J Smith]

I remember when there was a rather noted exchange of views on this forum about mOd3rN winTr and now you can't even say the words here.

A claim was made around 2005-06 that Britain would never see snow again at low elevations, nor would the CET ever fall below 3.0. 

Hmm. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.9C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 34.4mm 42,5% of the monthly avergae and we should hit average rainfall to tomorrow.

Very good chance of recording the warmest Jan on record here and with models failing to show any real prolonged cold we could beat the record by about 0.3C to 0.7C. Our highest is 6.4C recorded in 2007.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

I remember when there was a rather noted exchange of views on this forum about mOd3rN winTr and now you can't even say the words here.

A claim was made around 2005-06 that Britain would never see snow again at low elevations, nor would the CET ever fall below 3.0. 

Hmm. 

You’re having a decent winter re cold Roger?  I think March will lick a few lips over here.  But as noted even during 1700s there were notable mild winter spells....I bet they loved them back then

 

BFTP

Edited January 14, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Don]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I remember when there was a rather noted exchange of views on this forum about mOd3rN winTr and now you can't even say the words here.

A claim was made around 2005-06 that Britain would never see snow again at low elevations, nor would the CET ever fall below 3.0. 

Hmm. 

Very true, but have we seen the effects of climate change step up a gear for the UK since 2013?  However, I'm not implying there won't be any snow at low elevations or that the CET will never drop below 3C in future!

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Very true, but have we seen the effects of climate change step up a gear for the UK since 2013?  However, I'm not implying there won't be any snow at low elevations or that the CET will never drop below 3C in future!

We just managed a CET under 3*C (2.9) in Feb 2018.  That said winter 2012-13 was the last decent winter as a whole for cold weather fans.  Although winter 2017-18 overall was not particularly cold, it was colder than other winters since 2012-13.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I remember when there was a rather noted exchange of views on this forum about mOd3rN winTr and now you can't even say the words here.

A claim was made around 2005-06 that Britain would never see snow again at low elevations, nor would the CET ever fall below 3.0. 

Hmm. 

Well that didn't take long to bust did it.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We just managed a CET under 3*C (2.9) in Feb 2018.  That said winter 2012-13 was the last decent winter as a whole for cold weather fans.  Although winter 2017-18 overall was not particularly cold, it was colder than other winters since 2012-13.

Yes, winter 2017/18 was pretty decent for recent years and the BFTE certainly provided some potent cold!  That gave me some encouragement that we may have been entering back into a colder cluster of winters and was pretty optimistic in the run up to last winter.  However, last winter and this year so far have shown that the BFTE may have been a false dawn and a one off!  As I said above, we will get some colder winter months moving forward, but when and how often?

Edited January 14, 2020 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Fred ... yes we are getting some decent cold now, after a rather mild and (for around here) snowless December, we have had considerable snowfall since NYE and a pack of 45 cm has developed, and recently the temperature dropped from near freezing (which is above normal here) to -18 C as of right now and it's only 4:30 p.m. here so could be -25 by morning. 

The one faint hope clause I could offer in general is that if the NMP continues to push west across the IDL towards northeast Siberia, it could work with the atmosphere to reset the general circulation enough to favour more frequent cold spells in Europe. If the NMP ever got as far west as European Russia or northern Scandinavia then I believe the odds would favour quite frequent cold blocked winters in Europe (at the expense of raging Pacific mildness here). 

Human modification of the climate -- I've said elsewhere that I think the AGW signal is overestimated by some, but is real, may account for a third to a half of the modern warming, with the other half to two-thirds being bad luck natural variability. You would think the quiet Sun would kick in a few easy ones during that blend of signals but the production is limited to 2009-13 mainly and the week of cold at end of Feb 2018 into March 1-2. So my perspective is that severe cold can always return if natural variability is driving the bus and AGW is only a passenger. Also within their own orthodox theory there is the caveat that polar vortex displacement will become more frequent with a warming arctic. I happen to disagree that this is true cause and effect, but even a staunch warminista would have some reason for optimism. We have had a number of severe cold winters in North America since you had your run. Both 2014 and 2015 had them in eastern regions, and 2019 and now it looks like this winter will have them in the west. (Feb 2019 was coldest on record for some locations).

I would agree that February is likely to be more transitional from mild to cold than last year, then possibly a colder than average March-April period. But even in 2007 which was of course a nearly endless mildfest, there was a decent snowfall event around mid-February. I can recall reading about 8-10 inch falls in parts of the Midlands from that one (a slider moving southeast IIRC). It didn't take hold and was gone within days though. 

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We just managed a CET under 3*C (2.9) in Feb 2018.  That said winter 2012-13 was the last decent winter as a whole for cold weather fans.  Although winter 2017-18 overall was not particularly cold, it was colder than other winters since 2012-13.

True but it was only 0.2C colder than 2014-15. That winter is often overlooked amongst winters since 2012-13. 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 14th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Roger,  Vancouver Island been on the news with Meghan there...very snowy scenes indeed.  Yes I’ve never been hopeful for Jan or Feb for decent cold here, but December did very much disappoint me with the shift of the jetstream to a milder pattern.  Spring looking cold to me....seems to be becoming a theme if it turns out that way.

My Feb CET guess May get scuppered if the anticipated transition occurs before months end, I’m anticipating a large HP to our East last third of the month (got an overnight golf society trip booked for 29th Feb so hoping I’m right) to shift position to usher in the Spring cold in March.

This HP if it brings the clear cold nights could drop the CET a bit....for my Jan guess I hope so

 

BFTP

Edited January 15, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Relativistic]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

True but it was only 0.2C colder than 2014-15. That winter is often overlooked amongst winters since 2012-13.

Indeed, I remember heavy snow coming down when West Brom hosted Man City on Boxing Day, before an excellent anticyclonic spell set in thereafter (ending New Year). Then numerous attacks from the north-west throughout January and early February brought a few low-level snowfalls to my then home in Brum. Mid-February I was hiking in the Lake District (can't recall where exactly), and I remember the landscape being green and brown before we began one of our ascents. When we descended out of the mists everything was beautifully white.

Definitely an underrated season.

[Relativistic]

23 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

How can you say that?  We have not really had what could be reasonably described as a prolonged notable cold spell in the UK since 2012-13.

And by 2012 we hadn't had any prolonged and notable Summer hot spells since 2006.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 42.6mm 52.8% of the monthly average.

The GFS now drifting slowly back to the milder outlook once more so after a drop for the next few days which should have some mild days to counter act the drop. Very good chance of new warmest ever Jan here.

[virtualsphere]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The one faint hope clause I could offer in general is that if the NMP continues to push west across the IDL towards northeast Siberia, it could work with the atmosphere to reset the general circulation enough to favour more frequent cold spells in Europe. If the NMP ever got as far west as European Russia or northern Scandinavia then I believe the odds would favour quite frequent cold blocked winters in Europe (at the expense of raging Pacific mildness here). 

NMP - North Magnetic Pole?  Is there a link between this and the polar vortex positioning, or is your reasoning to do with other factors?  Thanks