January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The Jan 2003 spells were patterns that did not quite set up perfectly to bring significant UK wide cold and snow, but favoured areas like those you mention got lucky.

Yes, I think 2002/03 was a bit of a 'near miss' winter, close but no cigar.  Fortunately, I was in one of the favoured areas on both occasions that January, which was nice after many years of not seeing any significant snow.  As I've said before, even during the colder winters of 1995/96 and 1996/97, I saw little more than a few dustings!

[summer blizzard]

Roger forgot April 07, I think we also had the warmest first half to May 08.

Jan 03 was a bit like Nov 04 and Dec 04. Blocking mainly just west with lots of topplers.

We’ve not had a northerly winter month in some time.

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 4th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.7c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

First look at the EWP -- only 4 mm so far, looks like about 30 mm on GFS ten-day projection and would estimate 20-30 more from maps on GFS day 11-16, so that would bring us to 54-64 mm by the 21st.

CET will run quite mild, estimate near 7 by end of this coming week and maps from then on look to be around 5-6 much of the time in a highly modified cooler maritime flow. By end of run likely to be back around 6.0 if guidance is solid. 

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 5th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.7c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall 0.5mm 0.6% of the monthly average so very mild and fairly dry month so far.

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 6th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.0c to the 6th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Timmytour]

Bearing in mind the models, this could end up being the first January this century to exceed a mean CET of 7C

Remarkable considering the last time it happened was the second time within a six year period that it had occurred.

Even more remarkable considering those years in question were 1916 and 1921.... so 99 years ago since it last happened!

if. so, I hope the following Feb and March are more like 1916 ( 3.8C and 3.3C) than 1921 (4.8C and 7.4C) !!

 

 

[snowray]

Big jump up to 7c wasn't expecting it to go up that much. 11-12c widely in the CET zone today, might hit 13c, last night was not that cold around 5/6c so up we go again. A cooler outlook though may well bring us down into the 6's again by the end of this week.

[snowray]

Upto 13c now in the West Midlands, can we go any higher?

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Big jump up to 7c wasn't expecting it to go up that much. 11-12c widely in the CET zone today, might hit 13c, last night was not that cold around 5/6c so up we go again. A cooler outlook though may well bring us down into the 6's again by the end of this week.

Cooler but not hugely so, probably won't take it down that much. No really cold nights forecast which makes it hard to see where big falls are going to come from. There will also be the odd very mild day here and there over the next week.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Cooler but not hugely so, probably won't take it down that much. No really cold nights forecast which makes it hard to see where big falls are going to come from. There will also be the odd very mild day here and there over the next week.

Some colder night time temps look likely with frosts in places I would think, nothing much below freezing though. It would require some severe frosts to really start to peg things back significantly.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 1.3mm 1.6% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Some colder night time temps look likely with frosts in places I would think, nothing much below freezing though. It would require some severe frosts to really start to peg things back significantly.

Nothing forecast around freezing in these parts

[snowray]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Nothing forecast around freezing in these parts

 Night temps certainly lower than of late in the CET zone.

[summer blizzard]

I suspect some are being a bit OTT, the outlook is milder than average but more likely to produce a slow fall than rise.

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 7th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.1c to the 7th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 1.4mm 1.7% of the monthly average.

GFS switching more to milder outlook with mild nights continuing with a few less mild days mixed in but I expect a slow rise to continue for a few days until we meet a stall. Good chance for our warmest Jan on record even at this early stage with little sign of any cold weather to knock the average down.

Edited January 8, 2020 by The PIT

[emmett garland]

dublin airport at 7.5 degrees +2.1 above average.. 4mm of rain 27% of normal..12.8hrs of sun which is bang on 100%

 

[Durham Weather]

Gilesgate, Durham City

7.2 degC to the 8th.

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 8th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.4c to the 8th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

[Mapantz]

A beastly 8.7°C here. MetOffice derived average is 5.6°C 

[Roger J Smith]

By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ...

1992 __ 8.8

1916 __ 8.7

2013 __ 8.0

2007 __ 7.9

1950 __ 7.8

1932, 1975, 1983 __ 7.7

1921 __ 7.6

1855 __ 7.5

1873, 2005 __ 7.4

1902, 1957, 1999 __ 7.3

1869, 1937, 1976, 2012 __ 7.2

1782, 2014 __ 7.1

1948, 1989 __ 7.0

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That's a total of 23 out of 248 in the daily data period. 

[Timmytour]

41 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ...

1992 __ 8.8

1916 __ 8.7

2013 __ 8.0

2007 __ 7.9

1950 __ 7.8

1932, 1975, 1983 __ 7.7

1921 __ 7.6

1855 __ 7.5

1873, 2005 __ 7.4

1902, 1957, 1999 __ 7.3

1869, 1937, 1976, 2012 __ 7.2

1782, 2014 __ 7.1

1948, 1989 __ 7.0

__________________________

That's a total of 23 out of 248 in the daily data period. 

Interesting only 21 above 7.0  so less than a 20% conversion of the data set into above 7C for the month....indications of colder times ahead?