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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC monthly more encouraging tonight..

Well post the charts then,i don't have the link any more😁

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well post the charts then,i don't have the link any more😁

Sorry si i'm on phone.

Im sure Feb or Blue will add comments.

There is a block centred to the ENE , from what i have seen.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

 

3 hours ago, Timmytour said:



<Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!

 

@TimmytourHere they are.. 🙂

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_1947_1_14.thumb.jpg.d9c50a8c0b0064b35f69070f7079902d.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_1947_1_17.thumb.jpg.a6408669a73b8fd23554b48066225a92.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_1947_1_21.thumb.jpg.113ea0ffa949ffad4182b36b5b66f211.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_1947_1_22.thumb.jpg.13d33b64efe2b52a61b16c5620059c2c.jpg

Anyway still looking to turn generally unsettled for all after the 5th with very unsettled perhaps occasionally quite stormy conditions for northern UK especially Scotland as areas of low pressure become more intense as one system after the other develops and moves northeast to the north of the UK the track of these move southwards for a time with one or two deep lows likely to hit more directly at the uk before the track of these tend to shift north again by day 10 as high pressure builds into southern Uk remaining mostly mild throughout the 10 day period although by this point signs of a more southerly tracking jetstream is showing across the Atlantic towards day 10 that would suggest a breakdown of that high with a renewed period of wet and windy weather. 

7th..

1501727717_EUROPE_PRMSL_126(2).thumb.jpg.adb750006f8833aa1dc597e2ed5b5028.jpg

10th..

211199381_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(6).thumb.jpg.01b541588201eb1c4f19ae38a89fbf61.jpg

11th..

653822365_EUROPE_PRMSL_222(1).thumb.jpg.c49f7ba76eaaa07fb98acd76e2d8076c.jpg

12th..

1478457136_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(20).thumb.jpg.24391936bf2b757361f67c36c5f19e7d.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry si i'm on phone.

Im sure Feb or Blue will add comments.

There is a block centred to the ENE , from what i have seen.

They aren't out yet.

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Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Well at least there is weak signal in the output (ECM, GEFS, ICON 180+)

Let's see if GFS 18z ensembles improve upon the 12z set.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Means nothing - the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

image.thumb.png.19a70a68d6361a4251fbf7107269398a.pngimage.thumb.png.61fc53937cce8cafe67f562519c5c470.png

EDIT : I must say the trop patterns look like a touch of the 09 / 91's about them this January.

Fair point. Well let’s hope it nosedives in early Feb. Really don’t want it to wreck spring. March is unsettled anyway but I loathe cold Aprils and Mays.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Aside the hunt for cold... ECM consistently signaling quite a warm day next Tuesday - raw output up to 15C in local spots, suggesting maybe even 16/17C could be achieved - pretty significant warmth for early Jan. 

As for the ECM op, no real surprise for anyone following the mid-Jan ensembles? Lots of output toying with a pressure bump to our east... though I suspect not in the majority of ensembles atm... but the trend has definitely been in the direction of this over the past 48 hours. 

Was shocked to see the +15C T850 line touching Cornwall next Tuesday on EC op. That would be not bad going on a summer's day!

ECMOPUK12_120_2.thumb.png.ddc32898d1b09aa94f35c9fee2027fb0.png

 

Edited by Nick F

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Was shocked to see the +15C T850 line touching Cornwall next Tuesday on EC op. That would be not bad going on a summer's day!

ECMOPUK12_120_2.thumb.png.ddc32898d1b09aa94f35c9fee2027fb0.png

 

That is scary.  Concerning that the models are toying with this idea!

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They aren't out yet.

Its the ec weeklies and they updated earlier  feb, 384 hours has a block.

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Its out now.

image.thumb.png.7604fae563f998832e13c0a59dc099f2.png

 

image.thumb.png.8b762a11c2339b4128e29d7c21f3073d.png

image.png

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They aren't out yet.

 

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry si i'm on phone.

Im sure Feb or Blue will add comments.

There is a block centred to the ENE , from what i have seen.

 

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well post the charts then,i don't have the link any more😁

Taken from Matt Hugo's latest tweet (see my latest post in the strat thread) ENTjoBiWoAseRtc.thumb.png.432d7cf2aeea716ef1ed7c3d8690ad6f.png ENTjod0WoBU5T-r.thumb.png.713344b358dce1c5c7f77cc6beeea0bf.png 

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Well the cfs is at it again!,it's consistent in showing that Scandi block

12z and 06z today.

cfsnh-0-342.thumb.png.e4ec7c2d75bb0d93a0cb958cd33826cf.pngcfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.cd7ad3817f428d0cea14af417f7cd507.png

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its the ec weeklies and they updated earlier  feb, 384 hours has a block.

 

76AAAEC0-EBE7-478B-A1A4-CC23C83A6428.png

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its the ec weeklies and they updated earlier  feb, 384 hours has a block.

Yes - posted them now - the area of above average heights not really at a high enough latitude.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - posted them now - the area of above average heights not really at a high enough latitude.

Ian F mentioned the clusters show a broadly S/SE flow out at 384 , the CFS has this directional flow and look where that high is. You never know, next few runs may start throwing lots of peachy FIs in the mix !! 

B495F5E2-EE91-4A54-9C28-3B646CED8746.png

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chance of nacreous clouds for the North as the PV displaces toward Scandinavia?  gfseuw-10-192.thumb.png.1d949f8e3624df0eaf01f655bbe2171e.png

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2 hours ago, matty40s said:

Is it time for a New Year thread now.....at least we can start off positive...

We’ll probably try getting a new one up and spinning within the next hour (maybe after the pub run has finished updating), otherwise hopefully by tomorrow morning/afternoon. 

Would make sense to have a new one now that 2020 is here!

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Eps Clusters show the op has good support though getting the ridge enough traction to allow caa around the back could be the issue 

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Now the EPS have got better, the GEFS have gone crapper again - like banging your head against a brick wall.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its out now.

image.thumb.png.7604fae563f998832e13c0a59dc099f2.png

 

image.thumb.png.8b762a11c2339b4128e29d7c21f3073d.png

image.png

Uk/Euro looks a good shout dry atleast.👍

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now the EPS have got better, the GEFS have gone crapper again - like banging your head against a brick wall.

Look OK to me feb, baby steps gensnh-5-1-384.thumb.png.ad26bba0c99849458f02ac2b845b7e34.png  gensnh-6-5-384.thumb.png.8273968df14667bcf5e803d2fa1fbe00.png gensnh-14-1-384.thumb.png.951c86b622de16fc88075ec0dcc0ae18.png gensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.348222ce74cfbb5853ce5dc6f22ee3b0.png still others that attempt to get the ridge toward scandi  anim_lzw9.thumb.gif.1dabc21191a85f117d3a18b3e885eda7.gif 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Look OK to me feb, baby steps others that attempt to get the ridge toward scand

Angle looks worse on the mean than 12z and far less stonkers than recent runs, also as per bluearmy on the eps - the 18z gefs don't look conducive to a 'come around the backer 87-91er'.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Angle looks worse on the mean than 12z and far less stonkers than recent runs, also as per bluearmy on the eps - the 18z gefs don't look conducive to a 'come around the backer 87-91er'.

Each set of ensembles will differ position wise especially at that range, just have to wait and see where we head but should the ridge develop you would imagine that we will have some sort of chance getting it toward scandi 🤞

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1 hour ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Incredible warmth continuing on the GFS

Hideous 

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