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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Cfs a bit early with that scenario,lol,it’s at the end of january through till at least mid-febuary that rthe above pattern is expected to dominate the weather over U.K. and much of Europe,according to some forecasters.

So need to wait a couple of weeks before the models show the signs of change.

GEFS lala land mean is not million miles away from an easterly scenario, will not believe it at all. It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point view on January outcome. He mentioned that January would be a more throughy month with some residual heights to the north of UK, yet outlook is very zonal and no sign of southerly tracking jet stream as much as perhaps thought, some other forecasters in US had January composite maps that suggested Euro trough rather then Euro High that is on the menu now, something must have gone wrong then.

gens-21-5-384.png

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The IOD is now effectively down to neutral and should no longer inhibit the MJO progression, I see there has been record rainfall in Jakarta, maybe that is a sign the IOD is no longer an issue?

The MJO looks fairly high amplitude as to moves through 4-5, but will it maintain amplitude as it moves into more favorable 7-8-1 towards the end of the month or will some other unknown simply overwhelm it?

image.thumb.png.43a1a523104fbb4c646f50d38ad63fee.png

  

Yea there was big movement around 24th 25th 26th but this has died back again? IOD

 

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5 hours ago, booferking said:

Exceptional Bush fires in Australia  unprecedented levels never seen before exceptional warmth around the world this year never seen before top to bottom, uk winter is dead for me i have moved on to spring mode.

yes, can't say I'm not looking forward to feeling a bit of warm sun com early march ...

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Mid January upping the odds of a mid-latitude block either over the UK or further east - not an instant route to cold but could be a building block

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010200_360.

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20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Mid January upping the odds of a mid-latitude block either over the UK or further east - not an instant route to cold but could be a building block

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010200_360.

The biggest cluster looks horrendous.

All our eggs in basket 2 ...

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54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The biggest cluster looks horrendous.

All our eggs in basket 2 ...

Rather nice I would imagine with the surface high to the south east and some southerly zephyrs ?

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z...... Horrendous for coldies. 

Hardly surprising when the vortex is going from strength to strength! 

095E47E6-2B70-48BB-9A59-6967B198586D.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Across the board is pretty hopeless alright. 

How not busy this thread is for the time of year says it all really. 

My hopes are pinned on changes emerging in the second half of the month running in to February. 

Mid month mean GFS 

gens-21-1-288.png

Edited by The Eagle
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A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates ?? 

467ACEA6-6D90-4DCB-8843-EF6D6DFC0C70.png

50B6196B-2CB8-4442-82D9-89A70C636682.png

6BB9F343-C9C9-493E-9A31-520B1FA070BF.png

CEABAB12-E78F-4EE0-AA9A-6DC074536166.png

590D15E0-0120-42AA-BD2B-0C41E4D21B99.png

9A3DB130-2878-4CC8-B835-458FD039AF32.png

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Posted (edited)

The ECM again flatter than GFS at day 4, the GFS seems to struggle even at this range lately, I’m sticking to the FIM from now on - a proper weather computer!! 

04F93149-921A-46FF-B5BB-CCF4CEB6973C.png

074B8413-581A-4F1B-B3C0-13425DE770E6.png

Edited by Ali1977

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36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A few decent NH profiles in FI. Still all on schedule for a 1947 type spell over similar dates ?? 

 

I know it's only said in jest, but I can't even comfort myself with the thought of what 1947 ended up being after a very mild middle of January this winter!

I wonder if this forum and the models had been had been around back then, when, during the month, the excitement would have commenced ? 

Fact is, the 1946/47 winter had already produced some cold spells with easterlies, so I suspect there would have been some anticipation that something extreme could happen. And so it turned out.....the door had been banged on so much that it finally gave way.

There's no way that's ever going to happen this winter.  There's barely the imprint of a knuckle on the door now whereas there were cracks in the door in January 1947. 

But can you imagine what the forum would have been like as the models began to firm up on the idea of the change that did eventually happen!  Happiness in the forum actually followed by real life satisfaction! ?

<Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!>

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I know it's only said in jest, but I can't even comfort myself with the thought of what 1947 ended up being after a very mild middle of January this winter!

I wonder if this forum and the models had been had been around back then, when, during the month, the excitement would have commenced ? 

Fact is, the 1946/47 winter had already produced some cold spells with easterlies, so I suspect there would have been some anticipation that something extreme could happen. And so it turned out.....the door had been banged on so much that it finally gave way.

There's no way that's ever going to happen this winter.  There's barely the imprint of a knuckle on the door now whereas there were cracks in the door in January 1947. 

But can you imagine what the forum would have been like as the models began to firm up on the idea of the change that did eventually happen!  Happiness in the forum actually followed by real life satisfaction! ?

<Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!>

 

 

 

 

 

There would still have been loads looking for the breakdown ??

 

Here is some of the output ?

F9E90BD6-71CB-484E-BD2A-23F5DC1552C1.jpeg

Edited by That ECM
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who says a scandi Hp ain't possible which some suggest a glimmer of hope maybe?

ECM1-216.gif

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Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days. 

4F18F005-E4F8-4E14-994F-B32D23902C74.png

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2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days. 

4F18F005-E4F8-4E14-994F-B32D23902C74.png

A better chart than many others in the output tonight.  One question is will it happen, and if yes it does happen, whether the blocking sets up favourably to bring a cold spell to the UK is a different question.

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ECM day ten....HURRAH!!!!

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2885c1ef506911c8a81ed698fff38fc8.gif

gem not bad either and like i have been saying the last few days,the cfs has been showing a Scandi high.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM day ten....HURRAH!!!!

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2885c1ef506911c8a81ed698fff38fc8.gif

gem not bad either and like i have been saying the last few days,the cfs has been showing a Scandi high.

baby steps to a cold spell; if a chart at as far out as day ten verifies.

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Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

baby steps to a cold spell; if a chart at as far out as day ten verifies.

Yes i know the drill?

it's a damn site better than what has been showing for what seems like an eternity.

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Posted (edited)

There I was fully expecting to see a totally dire ECM and it desperately tries to to throw up the tempter of an easterly

image.thumb.png.9db743d733ba1962586a2a257848ede3.png

Edited by Purga
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^^^ We know ECM D9-D10 charts when they see a height rise the op nearly always shows the extreme end of that possibility, that rarely if ever verifies. The GFS is also seeing that lull in the zonal energy:

1865727757_gfseu-0-240(1).thumb.png.14a9bf4bb5bd63eccb9bf0b48261b835.png

I suspect that is the other end of the spectrum! The GEFS have a few members close to the ECM at D9. One goes to this at D11:

gensnh-20-1-276.thumb.png.ed1c5aea1a09d096e9dbcccab4f87773.png

What normally happens is they meet in the middle and it turns out to be nothing of note. It would have to get down to D6 on ECM before I took it seriously. Maybe ECM will surprise us with one of those amplified D10 charts? It is overdue!

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, jules216 said:

GEFS lala land mean is not million miles away from an easterly scenario, will not believe it at all. It would be nice to hear from @Glacier Point view on January outcome. He mentioned that January would be a more throughy month with some residual heights to the north of UK, yet outlook is very zonal and no sign of southerly tracking jet stream as much as perhaps thought, some other forecasters in US had January composite maps that suggested Euro trough rather then Euro High that is on the menu now, something must have gone wrong then.

gens-21-5-384.png

Well maybe it’s beginning earlier than end of January l.Is the ECM beginning to sniff out the possible dramatic pattern change after tonight’s run. just gone?

Edited by SLEETY
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