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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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JMA looking a bit better, looking at the ECM mean a few ENS might show this too!!

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Models continue to show a mild westerly flow for around 5th or 6th of January onwards after the initial northwest airflow with an increasingly unsettled outlook especially for northern UK the cold continental feed of air that the GFS showed to effect England during later this weekend and for a considerable amount of time thereafter is now shown effecting these areas for a couple of days over the weekend courtesy of the Northwesterly but then these cold surface temperatures are shown to be shifted south but they aren't far and are over France but UK much milder with a west or southwesterly wind becoming established. 

GFS.. 👇

6th..

EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_138.thumb.jpg.40633af24db741ba4879f24910e6df32.jpg

7th..

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8th..

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Ecmwf most unsettled.. 👇

7th..

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9th..

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10th..

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Gem.. 👇

7th..

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8th..

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10th..

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Finally the average output from the Ecmwf, Gem and the Gfs put together and much the same with unsettled conditions with a broad westerly flow across the north Atlantic through the UK after the 5th or 6th with milder and colder conditions alternating and spells of rain at first for northern parts then extending southwards. 

4th..

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6th..

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7th..

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8th..

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10th..

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Anyway a happy new year to you all.😀🎊

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Edited by jordan smith

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Check into the model thread....see a few cold cherry picked outlier ensemble members on the thread....check out again 😂 no change. AO/NAO continued forecast positive. The waiting game continues. Happy new year one and all!

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Happy new year folks.

The models are horrific for now as exemplified by the ext EPS which continues to show higher heights over Europe and the low heights continuing to our north west.

It’s a waiting game I’m afraid - still way too early to write winter off.  Keep the faith folks!

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29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Check into the model thread....see a few cold cherry picked outlier ensemble members on the thread....check out again 😂 no change. AO/NAO continued forecast positive. The waiting game continues. Happy new year one and all!

 

20 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Happy new year folks.

The models are horrific for now as exemplified by the ext EPS which continues to show higher heights over Europe and the low heights continuing to our north west.

It’s a waiting game I’m afraid - still way too early to write winter off.  Keep the faith folks!

That's about the sum of it guys. Realistically I think we're looking around the 20th Jan before any real chance of something interesting for coldies. The last few GFS runs have had some interesting builds of heights to the northeast in the 15 day range but that's just starting points to possible change. Just got to sit this one out and hang in there. This is my 60th winter on the south coast so believe me I know what winter patience means. On the other hand I'm used to it. So bring it on 

Happy new year to everyone on the forum. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Happy New Year all!

Flicked through the 51 ECM ensembles - by 14th January, it's generally high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW - but some tantalising alternatives - some runs bring the Euro high close enough to perhaps make the SE corner colder - and as many as 20% of runs threaten a Scandi High. To be continued in 2020!!!

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13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

New December record high temp recorded in scotland today, 18.7c ! Says all you need to know about this winter !  Happy New Year all.

That's the best news I have heard all day. Many of the potent cold spells of yesteryear were preceded by exceptional mild spells. Jan 1947 being just one example. 

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58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Happy New Year all!

Flicked through the 51 ECM ensembles - by 14th January, it's generally high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW - but some tantalising alternatives - some runs bring the Euro high close enough to perhaps make the SE corner colder - and as many as 20% of runs threaten a Scandi High. To be continued in 2020!!!

Thanks for the info. I noticed debilt went cold later on. I guess the control run was one of the scandi highs? 

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Happy new year all!!

Charts = no comment lol.

At least we all sure of one thing on the Winter so far! The only way is up!!!!😅

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Happy new year to all on here that give so much , Limited to just a lurker these days due to work commitments. I still follow but just so little time . Thanks to all .

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Hello sir!!  - pretty strong ridge being thrown up on the GEFS suite.

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That ensemble mean is 13 days away, and is likely to change significantly on the next few runs.  It just shows that winter is dead in the water when someone posts an ensemble mean 312hrs away that is still miles away from advecting proper cold to our shores.

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5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Happy new year to all on here that give so much , Limited to just a lurker these days due to work commitments. I still follow but just so little time . Thanks to all .

You’re not missing much at the minute Mark!!!!

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Happy New Year fellow Netweather geeks 🤓

 

Very little to cheer for coldies in 2019 but perhaps 2020 can be a little better?

No pattern change looking imminent though so it could be a bit of a uphill slog, especially through early January.

However the pattern looks like beginning to become more amplified end of week 1 or start of week 2 Jan so at least the chance of some brief colder interludes with transient wintriness in the North.

Currently it doesn't look like it will amplify enough for blocking to take hold but at least there is a tiny blip on the long range cold radar again.

That's about as good as it gets for now, so enjoy 2020 whatever the weather.

Edited by Mucka

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A very Happy New Year everyone on NW!

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I'm going to raise a glass to P18 - bound to verify in the face of all the odds!  😍

All the best

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FWIW the Icon 12z would bring in some genuinely cold weather for Northern Britain.

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The GFS 18z follows this so not sure where met office forecast of very mild for first half of jan is coming from.

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It may be very warm around mid month in the North but that could be the WAA into the pole that is advertised on the 18z GEFS suite so prelude a scandi high.

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This is turning into a 💩 winter again. My New Years resolution is to count P18 down to T0 😎

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It's a tough gig this eve.

A Double whammy of rubbish weather chart output and Craig David on Beeb's NYE celebs.🙄

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How sad are you lot, all reading this thread as the new decade starts.
 

And as for those posting here..... shocking.
 

Ah yes, I see your point.

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Happy new year model watchers! 🍾

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