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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup was gona mention that actually!!with the high across england right now gfs amplified the pattern more than the ukmo and ecm and eventually they moved towards gfs which is why we have got a couple.of more seasonal days and frosty nights at the moment!!

True...Anywho: Roll on Smarch?     h500slp.png  :oldgrin:

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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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3 hours ago, Nick F said:

I think, if you’ve not already, that we will have to lower expectations for January re: cold and snow, history indicates that once a strong +AO along with +NAO sets in by the New Year, it could last for the rest of the winter. We only have to look at real stinkers of winters for cold and snow with +AO/+NAO most of the winter to be worried: to name a few 2013/2014; 2007/2008; 1999/2000; 1997/1998; 1989/1990; 1988/1989. Once the +AO/+NAO combo sets in, the models generally tend to perform better over longer time frames than when these indices are negative.

Although the MJO briefly orbits through 7-8, it does so at low amplitude, so will likely have little effect on changing the wavelengths over the N Atlantic, furthermore there is strong support for the MJO to swiftly die into COD then emerge into the Maritime Continent, phases 4-5, which are warm phases, so there will likely be no help from the MJO through much of January. Though it is possible that the MJO will progress onwards to colder phases by mid-January – but the lag of this probably not having an effect until towards end of the month.

The AO flipped suddenly from -2 to +3 in a space of a few days recently in December, so I suppose there’s chance that it may flip back –ve later in January or February – though it’s not quite clear what the precursor for this would be. But there is also every likelihood that it could remain +ve through much of the rest of the winter. The QBO has only recently turned easterly, so unlikely this will have an impact on the PV until later in winter, when the PV would normally start to wane anyway. So we are kind of reliant on tropical forcing over the Pacific changing the patterns at high latitudes, of which there is unlikely to be much help from for a few weeks at least. There is EAMT and GLAAM to consider, but that’s not my forte, so cannot really suggest if these will have positive impacts.

 I have to agree with you Nick it is also in line with most of the long-range models that forecasted this winter will be a plus nao  winter looking at ECMWF seasonal update it doesn’t paint a pretty picture nor does the DWD or mtia France. in fact the DWD looks really unsettled even into spring. ?

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33 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Very good watching in regards high pressure positioning,GFS v ECM UK MET still lots to work out .

Will it be a colder continental air stream or more Southwesterly,any body’s guess.

1 GEFS member looks like supporting the flatter ECM scenario , it could be right I guess!! Definite sign of change afterwards though, HP vs W/NE flow - neither that cold but snow row shows a few chances with some ENS

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6 hours ago, West is Best said:

This is relentless.

Meanwhile, every Australian state hits 40C.

It's pretty difficult to ignore that AGW is driving our own model outputs. The power of the jet this whole autumn / early winter is something to behold. Every time you think it's about to relent, it roars back. Sigh.

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Oh come on WiB, it's winter, a strong jet stream across the northern hemisphere is a more NORMAL pattern than a slower wavey jet stream which sends well above average temperatures at higher latitudes and much lower than normal temperatures at lower latitudes and we get told that pattern is down to climate change also! 

At the moment it looks a bit of a long way before any significant snow potential occurs, as others noted if the slightly more amplified GFS is right we may get slightly colder weather than the ECM/UKMO runs would suggest. Do bear in mind the GFS has a cold bias as it gets further forward in the output so I don't think the uppers will get as low as its suggesting sadly. 

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The GFS has been reluctant to give up the ghost on some colder air heading se .

And then holds the high in a better position to bring some continental air into the mix more especially for the south and se.

However the horror combo of the ECM and UKMO hardly bring much cold air into the UK before swiftly dispatching that to the east .

The GEFS still show solid support for that cold air into the north , a bit more mixed further south .

Given the timeframes involved one or more models is going to have to eat humble pie.

Putting aside the possible colder blip ! The outputs really from a snow perspective are abysmal .

The ECM ensembles for the next twelve days need to come with a health warning , only after that does it show a decent scatter from the milder grouping .

We have been here before many times but for the timebeing we seem to be stuck in a rut with a rampant PV .

Things can change but they need to get a move on if there’s to be something decent for cold and snow lovers during January .

Edited by nick sussex
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GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

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14 minutes ago, Beanz said:

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

The ENS have a few decent PM shots between them for mid next week, but when it’s looking so potentially wrong by day 3 it’s hardly worth thinking about anything beyond the weekend. PM shots would be about the best case scenario for now (for the north hills anyway)

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Edited by Ali1977
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2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up..  

I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario.  I wouldn’t be backing it 

Got to agree with you there, GFS almost certainly will fall into line. The ICON is about to start rolling out, will be interesting to see where it stands, maybe some sort of midway as usual between GFS and ECM but closer to ECM/UKMO.

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Got to agree with you there, GFS almost certainly will fall into line. The ICON is about to start rolling out, will be interesting to see where it stands, maybe some sort of midway as usual between GFS and ECM but closer to ECM/UKMO.

ICON moving more towards the GFS solution there.

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Followed by a cold NWly.

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Edited by snowray
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Also have a look at APREGE 12Z. We will see with ECMWF. This period is particularly interesting with regards to IMBY in Slovakia as we could be receiving some cold air initially and then surface cold, can be great once Atlantic fronts want to push in and create snowfall.GFS anim. attached

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UKMO 12z has definitely shifted position somewhat towards that of the GFS at 96 hr, but the uppers are not much to write home about.

( will be interesting to see what ECM makes of the position of the HP later this evening )

 

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GEM 12z v chilly too for the North East of the UK at +90 hr ( and has moved from its earlier position towards the GFS option )

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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A possible slight eastward shift on the GFS. I'm hoping for a good frost Saturday night it may freeze the lawn so I can cut it. GFS FI land shows spring arriving early again at the moment. Hopefully the ECM will show something different but I don't hold my hopes up.

Otherwise a happy new year to you all.

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GFS 12 following the strongly zonal METO / ECM route and dropping the continental influence from earlier.

12z ENS trending much milder again compared to 00z & 06z - now why doesn't that surprise me? ?

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Edited by Purga
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16 minutes ago, Purga said:

GFS 12 following the strongly zonal METO / ECM route and dropping the continental influence from earlier.

12z ENS trending much milder again compared to 00z & 06z - now why doesn't that surprise me? ?

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But all the GFS runs hugely different in the short term , so if ECM jumps cold (like the UKMO has) this weekend then it’s UKMO/ECM following the mighty GFS ?

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So there we have it, the last full run of 2019, and of the decade, the big three, GFS, UKMO and ECM at T144, just the 18z runs to go but that's our lot from UKMO and ECM, until 2020.

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Happy New Year everyone, have a lovely evening whatever your doing, don't drink too much....on the other hand it's only once a year! Let's hope that the new year will be all change in the models and we will start to see some decent winter charts with lots of snaaawwwwwww! :drunk:? ??

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