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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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A broadly westerly pattern dominating for the foreseeable - very benign stuff, nothing to make the headlines.

With that - I'm going to once again give model watching a break, and will be back come the weekend, when I hope there may be more definitive tentative signs that we might break out of this current spell, though suspect may take a few more days thereafter before we see this - but it will eventually, all that bottled up cold air over the Pole will in time migrate to mid lattitudes, just a case of when.. and where?

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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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25 minutes ago, Mcburns said:

Thanks for letting us know

If you're thanking someone for relaying their weather-related thoughts on a weather forum, you will have a lot of thanking to do... ?

On the other hand, if you are just throwing a bit of sarcasm about, a Model Forum Host is probably not the best person to aim it at... ?

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You know it's bad when the CFS gets pulled out... so that's exactly what I've done lol.

Not without some interest at least. A straight northerly followed by a UK high would at least be seasonal for later January. Perhaps February will be the month when some of the cold up north gets let out, at weekendly intervals. A possibly rather cold and stormy start to March too - nothing unusual there.

cfs-0-570.png?00 cfs-0-636.png?00 cfs-0-978.png?00 cfs-0-1158.png?00 cfs-0-1470.png?00 cfs-0-1638.png?00

In the short term however, all rather bland. Again I hear myself saying - at least it will be much drier than September-December...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by MP-R
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5 minutes ago, Mcburns said:

Loves a "break from model watching" does our Damian. As if it's gonna magically make things better on his return.

It probably won't but why depress yourself watching the same old rubbish churned out by the models. It does change, it can take time, so why not concentrate on real life in the meantime? Weather/model watching can become an obsession. It's good to take a break sometimes... ?

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On 27/12/2019 at 08:23, Nick F said:

The models could be underestimating the amplitude, given they seem to be playing catch up on the MJO's progress. Clutching straws I know, but a possibility. 

However, given the lag of 10 days or so of the impacts of more favourable 7-8-1 for HLB, we are unlikely to see the models showing anything for a week at least.

In the meantime, not a good look from the operationals if it's snow you want.

I the end, the MJO didn't get near 7-8-1 and now looks to come out in 4-5. 

So more Westerlies likely. 

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I the end, the MJO didn't get near 7-8-1 and now looks to come out in 4-5. 

So more Westerlies likely. 

Yes, but next time round might be a stronger signal, 

image.thumb.jpg.866bdd988a72425aa4f17f41fb64acc4.jpg

Admittedly that adds days and pushes us towards the the end of Jan for any significant influence.  NH view as per 18z T192:

image.thumb.jpg.f46ac6fef2051f4b08e6f0c76453dd95.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.13420607b7422d144e16a01273cb8e19.jpg

Southerly tracking jet, everywhere except the run up to the UK off the Atlantic. Throws hands up and then throws up in my hands...

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A colder northwesterly feed still shown in the wake of a low pressure system moving southeast over the top of high pressure out West around the 3rd/4th this high then like I said yesterday shown to sit to the southeast of the UK.. This would bring a spell of rain southeast over the country with wintry showers for Scotland.

1779854325_EUROPE_PRMSL_102(4).thumb.jpg.7db7937b0736ffbdc01db75277ad323e.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_102.thumb.jpg.4608da8e6d5c6089d05b42f817e49288.jpg

The Gfs also showing colder conditions for particularly England and Wales from around 5th of January until the end of the run really with a slack feed off the continent this would bring very Frosty nights with daytime temperatures staying in the low to mid single figures for central and southern parts there would be fog too in places perhaps freezing fog and mostly dry for these areas as Atlantic disturbances are kept at bay to the Northwest of the country with milder but not particularly mild conditions for Ireland. 

5th..?

EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_132.thumb.jpg.3e9f42d9fcbfa448d753dcdd50756276.jpg

7th..?

EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_156.thumb.jpg.b66451f91fc3dd74edad0bb5b1eb5a44.jpg

8th..?

EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_198.thumb.jpg.a58603f667e4cd3020476aa37c7d91f1.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_216.thumb.jpg.b1b96f71a5b9aa7ae00bda9e51ee9783.jpg

That's the Gfs but Gem and Ecm very different surface wise with a more established strong west or northwesterly flow across the UK, bringing eventually some rain to most parts during the time period after the 5th which is when the Gfs keeps things settled and increasingly cold from stagnent conditions and no source of mild air except for northwestern areas. Strong winds would also be a feature too with the ecm and particularly the Gem as increasingly active low pressure systems move across the Gem in particular showing a very unsettled 6-10 days with heavy rain sweeping through even a little snow to some places but the emphasis would be on increasingly stormy conditions going by the Gem with milder then colder intervals alternating at first then colder generally as a southerly tracking jetstream takes place. 

Ecmwf..

5th..

2107706342_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_144(13).thumb.jpg.a346f169076fe203b33c0d1f1f841858.jpg

7th.. ?

1872474534_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(8).thumb.jpg.aed5fe13433c06740284199a96166106.jpg

9th..?

1790085952_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(13).thumb.jpg.9c2d9788f69db539f3e08fd94f1ec96b.jpg

Gem.. 

6th..?

2034317416_EUROPE_PRMSL_156(5).thumb.jpg.f4b3472d1b53da63a1389752e5efcb0d.jpg

1727937749_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_168(2).thumb.jpg.43f0c6cc27d6d4ea89484949d7a4de56.jpg

1230564332_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(8).thumb.jpg.cc1a2bb86adc8c0c8c5582b1aab8c391.jpg

7th..?

957258950_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_198(2).thumb.jpg.e8b5d4f2613c3211efe0be09a0e381a5.jpg

8th..?

1965012204_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(4).thumb.jpg.335d97114c6e310f7a1426f52d3815b9.jpg

9th..?

352393597_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_222(5).thumb.jpg.bfb56ab4ac082ef26e4e910fdcc1c189.jpg

30549114_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_240(6).thumb.jpg.b5be7ebef959b4f4f3cd08669b3f9817.jpg

Ofcourse its important not to get hung up on any particular model when there are various scenarios best looking at the average especially for the time period I'm showing and putting the average output of these together we have this.. 

6th..?

1452483355_EUROPE_PRMSL_156(6).thumb.jpg.916a9869d2c884be892fe82d6db773a6.jpg

7th..?

956231475_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(7).thumb.jpg.a7599c0a42578d49af11fdf02105bf64.jpg

8th..?

1886137002_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(5).thumb.jpg.7e310afd2dcd1e97b068ab72b89b8c0b.jpg

9th..?

1674391035_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(14).thumb.jpg.960d10d9ae673d91632a494e2586d5ab.jpg

Around the 5th or 6th high pressure still in charge for southern areas but a more unsettled pattern beginning to take place for northern areas this at first would be mild but then as more unsettled weather becomes more established more widely we would see colder incursions from the Northwest behind systems bringing the threat of wintry showers and perhaps back edge wintriness on occasion to any active frontal systems moving southeast. But this output is 7-10 days away so not to be taken too literally but the average is consistent atm. ?

Edited by jordan smith
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31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I the end, the MJO didn't get near 7-8-1 and now looks to come out in 4-5. 

So more Westerlies likely. 

not quite correct as still in phase 7 and a few go into phase 8 (though some also go toward phases 4/5) but as I mentioned in my last post I still think we are in a bit of a lag period in terms of feedback of conditions. CFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.6fe84a98c77c68b04be6534610f7d695.gifECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.thumb.gif.3d9228ec464f6ff86152be06c3e328e8.gifJMAN_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.f5e64bc9c87b90abd753f8e987e3f4e5.gif http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 

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Just looking at the latest runs and  i see there are still some differences around days 5/6 as to where the Atlantic high develops it's centre as it topples towards us.

The 18z run from GFS settles the high a little further north at the weekend which would help to trap surface cold after the main wedge of colder uppers passes through.Night frosts and colder days would ensue especially away from the far north.

Nothing dramatic but for maybe a few days feeling more like Winter if it can ward off the raging westerlies to our north-and at least prolong the drier spell for many of us.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Very different FI on GFS 18z.  Attempts to build a Scandy High but it sinks too far south.

At least it's trying!  GFS T348:

image.thumb.jpg.d8220e74492ba436b10347574443f53e.jpg

I'm actually quite surprised by this run, as it is not overrun by the vortex at all, pub run?  I'm never sure about this is it the 18z  that has been down the pub or us?  

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

You know it's bad when the CFS gets pulled out... so that's exactly what I've done lol.

Not without some interest at least. A straight northerly followed by a UK high would at least be seasonal for later January. Perhaps February will be the month when some of the cold up north gets let out, at weekendly intervals. A possibly rather cold and stormy start to March too - nothing unusual there.

cfs-0-570.png?00 cfs-0-636.png?00 cfs-0-978.png?00 cfs-0-1158.png?00 cfs-0-1470.png?00 cfs-0-1638.png?00

In the short term however, all rather bland. Again I hear myself saying - at least it will be much drier than September-December...

 

 

 

 

 

absolute pile of crap the CFS

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4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Then again, we might just all be chasing unicorns? As the winters of 1947 and '79 and '81-'82 clearly had nothing whatsoever to do with Solar minima, could it be that Solar minima are somewhat overrated phenomena?

That said, of course we'll get another cold winter eventually --- it's just that no-one can reliably say when...If I'm wrong, will that millionaire-genius please stand up!:oldgood:

Again....no.  It is nothing to do with Schwabe cycle minima....it’s the grand cycles

 

BFTP

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32 minutes ago, shaky said:

Very cold run for england wales from friday night i think on the 18z!!frosty nights and cold days!!better than nothing!

GFS seems to want to prolong that too all the way to around 14th January and the cold conditions would of been aided a fair bit by the preceding northerly or northwesterly wind progged for this weekend where the high essentially builds over the top of the country keeping the cold air in place but ofcourse thats only one model showing this and there are other options on the table atm and a stronger more unsettled westerly flow with milder conditions are more likely atm for the time frame of 6-10 days atleast anyway thereafter a colder version of unsettled conditions perhaps taking place. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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9 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

GFS seems to want to prolong that too all the way to around 14th January and the cold conditions would of been aided a fair bit by the preceding northerly or northwesterly wind progged for this weekend where the high essentially builds over the top of the country keeping the cold air in place but ofcourse thats only one model showing this and there are other options on the table atm and a stronger more unsettled westerly flow with milder conditions are more likely atm for the time frame of 6-10 days atleast anyway thereafter a colder version of unsettled conditions perhaps taking place. :oldgood:

Yeh expecting a flatter gfs 00z more in line with ecm and ukmo!hope it doesnt happen but knowing our luck gfs will back down in the morning!!

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58 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

not quite correct as still in phase 7 and a few go into phase 8 (though some also go toward phases 4/5) but as I mentioned in my last post I still think we are in a bit of a lag period in terms of feedback of conditions. CFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.6fe84a98c77c68b04be6534610f7d695.gifECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.thumb.gif.3d9228ec464f6ff86152be06c3e328e8.gifJMAN_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.f5e64bc9c87b90abd753f8e987e3f4e5.gif http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 

But we have heard and seen the IOD is overriding this signal?

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5 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Roll on spring, Oh it is Spring "where the frack did that winter go? Answers on a postcard please, diabolical ain't it not the same as it used to be back in the 20th century to much pollution and climate change, (SNIPPED) ???

Climate change has nothing to do with the flat northern hemisphere pattern we have at the moment so don't link the two together. This is a normal weather pattern for winter, not weather patterns which sends WAA all the way to the pole bringing 20 to 30C above average temperatures which in turns bring the phrase of Arctic amplification into play. 

It's frustrating as a cold snow lover too see the charts at the moment  but it's what it is. It can change but if or when that will be then who knows. Chance of some polar air heading down via the toppler but how much heads southwards is up for debate. Either way, snowfall looks very limited by this set up. 

Edited by Blessed Weather
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