Jump to content

Model output discussion - into Christmas


Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, Don said:

I reckon we will be in the same position in a month's time.  Got 1988/89 written all over it.  Ok, so December has been less mild than 1988, but it wouldn't surprise me if January or February is exceptionally mild.

Last February was exceptionally mild - the warmest since at least 2002 and not far short of 1998.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

Posted Images

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Last February was exceptionally mild - the warmest since at least 2002 and not far short of 1998.

Yes, only the cold start and lowish minimums during the heatwave in the final week prevented it from possibly being the warmest on record.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CanadaAl said:

I wouldn't get too downtrodden. There will likely be a string of cold winters again in the next years just as they were in 2009-2012. I mean just look back at 1895-1928. It probably seemed cold winters wouldn't return but they did. Global warming will change things but not as dramatically over the next few years. 

If the background signals are not poor like solar activity, ENSO state and QBO and a significant cold spell does not manifest itself during a winter then it is questionable as to if winters like 2009-10, December 2010 and winter 2012-13 can happen again.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well a brief possible cold snap this weekend to look forward to I suppose. Still outside the reliable time frame so downgrades still likely. After that it looks like a few brief cooler interludes and away from the north west plenty of dry weather on offer as well.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

If the background signals are not poor like solar activity, ENSO state and QBO and a significant cold spell does not manifest itself during a winter then it is questionable as to if winters like 2009-10, December 2010 and winter 2012-13 can happen again.

I think the only real positive background signal we have this year is low solar activity?

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, shaky said:

Only comfort is usa is hardly getting any meaningfull cold either since the stsrt of winter!!its flat around the uk but also the states!!

Really, I'm not so sure about that..

WWW.CLICKORLANDO.COM

A very large, long-duration snowstorm is developing in the Midwest as travelers return from the holiday week. Winter Storm Warnings extend from Colorado to...

MODS: Apologies off thread I know but important to quantify a statement in the thread...

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

image.thumb.jpg.6aa2fab443a9d4356c5cb8289e6374bd.jpg

It has got it's grip now, remember I posted this plot earlier in Nov Dec and the ellipses describing the the strat vortex at various levels were all over the place.  They aren't all over the place any more, are they?  At all levels from 1mb to 150 mb massive whirly thing centered on the pole at 15 Jan...

This to me is the interesting part of what seems to bee happening. Of course there's a heck of a lot to play in the NH, with IDO and the Pacific, but these eclipses really do show a lot of reason the the tPV has us nailed for the winter.. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, they are really useful, and very helpful, and I do wonder how much of this the MetO could figure out before December given their winter briefing...?

Edited by Dorsetbred
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

#10 please ?

image.thumb.png.510f56506f65562f3cef28f66cf661b5.pngimage.thumb.png.66f36500cd190b70d247d6afbcb392bb.png

It just shows how little of note in terms of cold there is in the model output when people are looking for odd ensemble members at over two weeks away, which are never likely to verify as shown, as if a perturbation is wrong at a week out, then it is even less likely to verify at two weeks out.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

ENSO is neutral to weak El Nino.  The QBO isn't as westerly as last winter and is entering its easterly phase.

The QBO has only just entered its easterly phase and with a lag, we probably won't feel the effects until spring.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

What I was implying is that the QBO is more or less neutral if it is only just entering its easterly phase, which still makes the QBO less westerly this winter than it was last winter.  With this and a neutral ENSO phase and low solar activity the chances of cold outbreaks this winter should surely be better than they were in the 2013-14 to 2016-17 winter era.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It just shows how little of note in terms of cold there is in the model output when people are looking for odd ensemble members at over two weeks away, which are never likely to verify as shown, as if a perturbation is wrong at a week out, then it is even less likely to verify at two weeks out.

Given the ensembles have their initialisation data tweaked (control excluded) you could argue that they are wrong from T+0.

To my mind the ensembles should be used to give more substance to the operating run.  If the ensembles and op follow a similar path then you can take the op as being more reliable.  In other words tweaking the initial data had little impact on the output.  Also often you can pin-point the time where the ensembles and op diverge giving you an idea of the timescale that uncertainty is creeping in.  The greater the spread becomes the lower the confidence in the op becomes.

The other big use of the ensembles is to look for clustering to spot potential trends.

The other point is that the ensembles are run in lower resolution than the operating run.  This difference explains divergence between the control and op which both are run using the same initialisation data.

Other than for fun picking an isolated ensemble run adds little.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Actually around the third week in December this year, pressure was quite high over Greenland, and we got close to a cold spell synoptically, but it never materialised.

And that’s the point, I was hopeful of a more robust pM/aM source outbreak....it didn’t happen.  So mild to rule for me as the dice aren’t rolling

 

BFTP

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much happening in the ecm  only thing of note  is after a very flat pattern  slight ridging brings in a north westerly   at  which at least would ease the sunburn 216h 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And that’s the point, I was hopeful of a more robust pM/aM source outbreak....it didn’t happen.  So mild to rule for me as the dice aren’t rolling

 

BFTP  indeed the dice is not rolling this winter so far models are quite poor at this moment in time what more I don’t know how many of you watched golf weather with DWDECM and Metea France seasonal update it is I must say very grim for cold weather fans in fact the DWD paint a quiet eight port spring picture to 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

RE low solar activity, it's maybe a touch early for that, I think we have not been in solar minimum for that long, and the coldest winters happen just after solar minimum and as we are beginning the next cycle. 

Then again, we might just all be chasing unicorns? As the winters of 1947 and '79 and '81-'82 clearly had nothing whatsoever to do with Solar minima, could it be that Solar minima are somewhat overrated phenomena?

That said, of course we'll get another cold winter eventually --- it's just that no-one can reliably say when...If I'm wrong, will that millionaire-genius please stand up!:oldgood:

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Then again, we might just all be chasing unicorns? As the winters of 1947 and '79 and '81-'82 clearly had nothing whatsoever to do with Solar minima, could it be that Solar minima are somewhat overrated phenomena?

That said, of course we'll get another cold winter eventually --- it's just that no-one can reliably say when...If I'm wrong, will that millionaire-genius please stand up!:oldgood:

Definitely between 2020-2024. It’s safe to say we will experience at least one or maybe two cold winters during this period. 
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

This to me is the interesting part of what seems to bee happening. Of course there's a heck of a lot to play in the NH, with IDO and the Pacific, but these eclipses really do show a lot of reason the the tPV has us nailed for the winter.. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, they are really useful, and very helpful, and I do wonder how much of this the MetO could figure out before December given their winter briefing...?

I think the MO got it bang on to be honest, mate.  This, IOD thing, the first I heard of it was in a MO contingency planners forecast in Nov, or maybe Oct I can't remember. What is quite disappointing is that when the MO and long range models forecast mild, that's what happens, but when they forecast cold it doesn't happen like last year, both times it was of course probabilistic but typical the way the dice fall!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...