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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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The 6z becomes more anticyclonic again towards the end of the run but that's the gfs so from one swing to the next.

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56 minutes ago, shaky said:

my thinking is if we are gona get a cold spell its going to be one of those legendary out the blue moments 

I'm afraid the days of a cold spell suddenly developing out out of the blue are long gone which is why we can be very certain of no proper cold at least out to mid January.

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A number of recent posts are more suited to the moans thread. Please stick to the models in here.

Thanks.

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Morning all, no point dressing up the ECM clusters any other way, the D11-D15 period suggests average to above average temperatures on a W or SWly flow, probably the return of rain at times, just the slight chance of a breakaway ridge to Scandinavia but low chances for now. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019123000_360.

 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The zonal winds plot posted Nick is utterly awful..

If anything it is showing the PV getting stronger as we move through Jan,

Awful indeed, HP in the wrong place is likely for some ‘considerable’ time ahead and Dec being on the much milder side fuels my concerns even more.  The idea of HP oscillating to our SW, SE and over us seemed and still does seem a decently plausible theme to me for January and February as a whole.

 BFTP

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Here we are again at the end of another December with nothing of note showing in the models from the perspective of a proper cold spell as we move into January.  If things do not begin to improve soon we could be looking at yet another poor winter from a cold perspective and that is with solar minimum and a fairly neutral ENSO state.  I know that background signals like high solar activity, a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO are generally not conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK, but in a year where these background signals are not poor in this way, if we cannot see something decent in cold winter conditions in the UK, then we have to question if we can ever see winters like 2009-10 ever again, or ever again see the sort of severe spells like December 2010, or see even the cold spells like we had in the 2012-13 winter ever again. 

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18 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Awful indeed, HP in the wrong place is likely for some ‘considerable’ time ahead and Dec being on the much milder side fuels my concerns even more.  The idea of HP oscillating to our SW, SE and over us seemed and still does seem a decently plausible theme to me for January and February as a whole.

 BFTP

Actually around the third week in December this year, pressure was quite high over Greenland, and we got close to a cold spell synoptically, but it never materialised.

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Come to Daddy 😍

 

image.thumb.png.95b945affc543d550a1429d3c4d82bf6.pngimage.thumb.png.0c8f2c0c2f9cecc74684084e5bee5cf9.png 

 

Waaay out in GFS FI but, hell if there's a straw to be clutched I might as well grab it with both hands.

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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Here we are again at the end of another December with nothing of note showing in the models from the perspective of a proper cold spell as we move into January.  If things do not begin to improve soon we could be looking at yet another poor winter from a cold perspective and that is with solar minimum and a fairly neutral ENSO state.  I know that background signals like high solar activity, a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO are generally not conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK, but in a year where these background signals are not poor in this way, if we cannot see something decent in cold winter conditions in the UK, then we have to question if we can ever see winters like 2009-10 ever again, or ever again see the sort of severe spells like December 2010, or see even the cold spells like we had in the 2012-13 winter ever again. 

I wouldn't get too downtrodden. There will likely be a string of cold winters again in the next years just as they were in 2009-2012. I mean just look back at 1895-1928. It probably seemed cold winters wouldn't return but they did. Global warming will change things but not as dramatically over the next few years. 

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Here we are again at the end of another December with nothing of note showing in the models from the perspective of a proper cold spell as we move into January.  If things do not begin to improve soon we could be looking at yet another poor winter from a cold perspective and that is with solar minimum and a fairly neutral ENSO state.  I know that background signals like high solar activity, a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO are generally not conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK, but in a year where these background signals are not poor in this way, if we cannot see something decent in cold winter conditions in the UK, then we have to question if we can ever see winters like 2009-10 ever again, or ever again see the sort of severe spells like December 2010, or see even the cold spells like we had in the 2012-13 winter ever again. 

2018?

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Actually around the third week in December this year, pressure was quite high over Greenland, and we got close to a cold spell synoptically, but it never materialised.

i've got to agree.

but the cold run of winters during cycle 24 minimum started with 2008 back end cold.

its possible by mid month something could arise polar vortex has been a dominant beast this year and if i was to be realistic it would take something special to knock it of its perch.

but never say never.

look at 2013 march.

but as you say the teleconnection have been conductive at times.

but as gp pointed out the indian ocean dipole is perhaps the thorn in our side.

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Icon 12z absolute filth at 132 hours!!dunno why i even bothered to look lol!bartlett high basically!!! 

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14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon 12z absolute filth at 132 hours!!dunno why i even bothered to look lol!bartlett high basically!!! 

Yep, I can only see a big back track in the GFS now ref the weekend cold snap 

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Actually, the 12z has a better ridge than the 06z...🙄

17FE9F82-186A-4B1D-8E59-952B4CFB9445.png

E064F53D-DB90-4A9F-BDE1-A7ABFA43338C.png

95780547-9631-471A-98F2-E5336EB30447.png

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Actually, the 12z has a better ridge than the 06z...🙄

17FE9F82-186A-4B1D-8E59-952B4CFB9445.png

E064F53D-DB90-4A9F-BDE1-A7ABFA43338C.png

95780547-9631-471A-98F2-E5336EB30447.png

Yeh but how much can we trust it!ukmo looks a little better at 120 hours but not much of a ridge!!

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Yes, a better ridge and a tastier northwesterly for Scotland at least.

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spacer.pngspacer.png

Both UKMO 12z and GFS 12z are ok for 4th Jan at t120 if you live in the North East of the UK and want a 24 hour cold shot ........but not really of much interest to others down South.   

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17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Actually, the 12z has a better ridge than the 06z...🙄

17FE9F82-186A-4B1D-8E59-952B4CFB9445.png

E064F53D-DB90-4A9F-BDE1-A7ABFA43338C.png

95780547-9631-471A-98F2-E5336EB30447.png

Yeh but how much can we trust it!ukmo looks a little better at 120 hours but not much of a ridge!!at least gfs looks cold and frosty till 192 hours!if ecm moves towards it then maybe its correct until then the poor form on the gfs continues!!

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So we are now in the middle of this horror show for coldies!   Before a look at the current models, a look at the strat for context is I think appropriate, zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.78bc4e865d31d67c6c685d6168bdeb93.jpg

Speed well up and no sign of it declining, vortex at various levels here:

image.thumb.jpg.6aa2fab443a9d4356c5cb8289e6374bd.jpg

It has got it's grip now, remember I posted this plot earlier in Nov Dec and the ellipses describing the the strat vortex at various levels were all over the place.  They aren't all over the place any more, are they?  At all levels from 1mb to 150 mb massive whirly thing centered on the pole at 15 Jan...

I think everyone knew we might end up here this year, given seasonal models especially, personally I hoped we might squeeze some wintry weather while the trop vortex was still disorganised, but no, for most.   GFS 12z it's having a laugh now, that vortex, bear balancing ball on head, T252:

image.thumb.jpg.19690c367608811939991964307e69ae.jpg

Ho hum...

Edited by Mike Poole

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So we are now in the middle of this horror show for coldies!   Before a look at the current models, a look at the strat for context is I think appropriate, zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.78bc4e865d31d67c6c685d6168bdeb93.jpg

Speed well up and no sign of it declining, vortex at various levels here:

image.thumb.jpg.6aa2fab443a9d4356c5cb8289e6374bd.jpg

It has got it's grip now, remember I posted this plot earlier in Nov Dec and the ellipses describing the the strat vortex at various levels were all over the place.  They aren't all over the place any more, are they?  At all levels from 1mb to 150 mb massive whirly thing centered on the pole at 15 Jan...

I think everyone knew we might end up here this year, given seasonal models especially, personally I hoped we might squeeze some wintry weather while the trop vortex was still disorganised, but no, for most.   GFS 12z it's having a laugh now, that vortex, bear balancing ball on head, T252:

image.thumb.jpg.19690c367608811939991964307e69ae.jpg

Ho hum...

I reckon we will be in the same position in a month's time.  Got 1988/89 written all over it.  Ok, so December has been less mild than 1988, but it wouldn't surprise me if January or February is exceptionally mild.

Edited by Don

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So we are now in the middle of this horror show for coldies!   Before a look at the current models, a look at the strat for context is I think appropriate, zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.78bc4e865d31d67c6c685d6168bdeb93.jpg

Speed well up and no sign of it declining, vortex at various levels here:

image.thumb.jpg.6aa2fab443a9d4356c5cb8289e6374bd.jpg

It has got it's grip now, remember I posted this plot earlier in Nov Dec and the ellipses describing the the strat vortex at various levels were all over the place.  They aren't all over the place any more, are they?  At all levels from 1mb to 150 mb massive whirly thing centered on the pole at 15 Jan...

I think everyone knew we might end up here this year, given seasonal models especially, personally I hoped we might squeeze some wintry weather while the trop vortex was still disorganised, but no, for most.   GFS 12z it's having a laugh now, that vortex, bear balancing ball on head, T252:

image.thumb.jpg.19690c367608811939991964307e69ae.jpg

Ho hum...

Only comfort is usa is hardly getting any meaningfull cold either since the stsrt of winter!!its flat around the uk but also the states!!

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

I reckon we will be in the same situation in a month's time.  Got 1988/89 written all over it.  Ok, so December has been less mild than 1988, but it wouldn't surprise me if January or February is exceptionally mild.

I fear so, Don, and I usually try to look for the positives, but there really aren't many at the moment.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Is it over yet? The dross, I mean. Is it? Anything interesting on the horizon? Anything? No? 😣

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I fear so, Don, and I usually try to look for the positives, but there really aren't many at the momment. 

I know.  As you know I've had low expectations for this winter for a while and thought that would save disappointment at least, but I still am!  At least the rain has stopped for now!

Edited by Don

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