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Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

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An inkling of hope maybe, after a fortnight of dire verging on direissimo model output?  GEM and GFS at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c218ab9e579274e8af236e6db1478b12.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.76886a857fe90351ecb95fc1466bb31b.jpg

GEM with the better ridge, no matter that the cold doesn't quite hit on this run, detail to be firmed up, but GFS also suggestive of a northerly at this time.  What's brought this about?  

MJO? Possibly, ECM and GEM ens seem to favour a brief excursion into phase 7 but then regroup and go for it all over again:

image.thumb.jpg.bfd2863a50f5e251f73fad6ae8170fda.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f51c6ecf2c45dd95a81446a7681dfcff.jpg

But once again that is now a jam tomorrow situation, as much of this waiting for snow malarkey is in recent years.  We've still got a way to go, I think.

Edited by Mike Poole

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That low to the left has got the right idea, ECM T96:

image.thumb.jpg.c2d99141428de83de598582af8c90bc1.jpg

Look vortex, with your stupid purple ears that aren't really on properly, and your one good eye, and the other that seems to run into your purple nose, just push off will you!!  We can manage without you.

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Big differences at 120 between GFS and ECM, GFS the better by far for a cold weekend 

D9BBB6D5-41D7-473A-95CE-1A38028A0D0D.png

327F514E-9F8E-478E-B41C-C21ABDF64B57.png

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

As you say distinct interest as this is the chart that I see

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.194b97475b4a97af189ee5c7d8aec440.png

Presumably mean v control run? Can’t say I’m up to speed on weatherbell product terminology. Broadly speaking in the same ballpark with UK ridge edging north. Supported by JMA monthly. What distinct interest are you referring to?

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42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Look vortex, with your stupid purple ears that aren't really on properly, and your one good eye, and the other that seems to run into your purple nose, just push off will you!!  We can manage without you.

I think you've just made the already angry vortex even angrier! 😱

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Well not many comments on that ECM run, no ridge on the weekend then no sign of anything other than a raging PV out to day 10. FI back to about 4 days, due to the differences with the initial ridge!! 
144 here, GFS and GEM (digs the trough down through central France) vs ECM and UKMO  (they keep the Euro HP in charge)

GEM 👌

95263C17-7149-4EE9-9855-0368531DC1F7.png

UKMO 👎🏼

F956009C-892E-47FE-9C61-6A984516F2B0.gif

GFS 👍

D6362AE8-B850-4443-8B52-6E462C00584E.png

ECM 👎🏼 🤢

64A6206A-BBBB-48B4-B1AC-928E90B62DE5.png

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Will be interesting to see the Ecm ensembles...

Hopefully the Op was drunk, and a big outlier from the weekend onwards!! 
GFS ENS mean vs ECM Op at 144, VS GFS Op

221A14F4-A020-4D45-84A5-422629A8E6C8.png

52547510-1EC0-4955-A0CB-BBB675B9682C.gif
 

E4C2E48D-D815-45A7-AB95-8B63A96E3F5E.png

Edited by Ali1977

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31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Presumably mean v control run? Can’t say I’m up to speed on weatherbell product terminology. Broadly speaking in the same ballpark with UK ridge edging north. Supported by JMA monthly. What distinct interest are you referring to?

Yes it is the control. The vast difference between the two And this is the GEFS for same time and I would take a punt on the surface high being centred  just to the south of the UK

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.5c4962dd5442109d3cd865d4aa1a55dd.png

Edited by knocker

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Comparing the last 2 EC means .

First the latest then this mornings!! As you can see, there are better signs of the HP shifting and jet lowering on the latest run, could be some better EPS members showing up with some troughs into Europe possible!!

The U.K. gone from yellows to greens, with a NW/SW looking possible!! Not much else to say that’s positive though!!

DDCFD1E5-6F61-4526-91C7-44975FCE2A70.png

B2E3BB1F-F5F6-420D-9F1C-55D98D7224A3.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Extended eps with strangely poor continuity as the ridge flattens quickly later week 2 and becomes v sceuro in appearance 

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps with strangely poor continuity as the ridge flattens quickly later week 2 and becomes v sceuro in appearance 

Scuero won't be mild in mid Jan...

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50 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Scuero won't be mild in mid Jan...

It will if it isn't close enough and allows a ssw flow ....

poor continuity means we must wait anyway .....

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Cold air edging closer on the 18z. GFS op keeps pushing the HP further and further NE, and LP over the Northern Med near Italy.

gfseu-0-162.png

gfseu-1-162.png

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It will if it isn't close enough and allows a ssw flow ....

poor continuity means we must wait anyway .....

Yes that is very true ...

The 360 ext eps did not look appealing i must say...

GFS looks like EC 00z !!

image.thumb.png.7c49ea27147639018c601552bd1a4e99.png

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes that is very true ...

The 360 ext eps did not look appealing i must say...

GFS looks like EC 00z !!

 ECM V GFS

ECE1-168.png

gfseu-0-162.png

Edit.. Yes similar to ECM 00z.

Edited by snowray

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This thread is very quiet at the moment - symptomatic of the rather uninspiring synoptics on offer - combined with that post-christmas to New Year lull..

Alas, we have the GFS 18z offering something different to the ECM - as often it does, remaining bullish with more of a northerly outbreak for the 3rd and a much more centrally located high for the 4th, which would deliver at least a couple of preety cold days - not looking beyond the 120 hr timeframe but no doubt heights would sink away SE, but may be not so..

 

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

No its better. ECM V GFS.

ECE1-168.png

gfseu-0-162.png

I know , i referenced the EC00Z det here it is at 192

image.thumb.png.bab8faf629c8820ee77e1dd325400171.png

Or was this morning at 192..

here is GFS 18z at 186

similar

image.thumb.png.58353c4b7e0d4c7d6d26e488e5fb642f.png

Edited by northwestsnow

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I know , i referenced the EC00Z det here it is at 192

image.thumb.png.bab8faf629c8820ee77e1dd325400171.png

Indeed, I edited my post to reflect that.

Good run this, nowhere near perfect, but a move in the right direction, typical 18z been up the pub for early New Years drinks I expect....

gfseu-0-204.png

Edited by snowray

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For what it's worth some transitional snowfall on the 18z, probably just a slushy mess for most of us but hey-ho.🙄

216-574UK.gif

222-574UK.gif

228-780UK.gif

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Well tickle me silly.. what do we have here

 image.thumb.png.615871784aa236b97f8e0c8e2f3bc89b.png

It's not over yet folks 

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Back with more detailed updates 🙂

The shallow low which perhaps looked like giving a little rain to southwestern parts for new year's eve will fizzle out to the southwest of the UK as pressure rises around it..

IMG_20191229_235257.thumb.jpg.0d55c5a0d8539a22e41a2f1edfbebdcb.jpg

high pressure becomes centred to the southeast of the UK after new years day with a light south east breeze for England and Wales upper air temperatures look mild but as the wind is coming off a cooling continent temperatures on the surface won't be particularly mild by day and some chilly nights especially for England and Wales with more influence from the Atlantic for Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

New year's day.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_66.thumb.jpg.5b2a7b4e97a562d65f174d721cb0beaf.jpg

3rd January.. 👇

An area of low pressure crossing the country bringing some rain to most though not significant with high pressure building northwards behind for a time bringing a brief northerly flow from East of Iceland southwards with air cold enough for sleet or snow for northern areas but very little would be around except for Scotland with some wintry showers whereas elsewhere would be mostly dry but some Frosty nights and a few cold days between the 3rd and 6th from that northerly flow.

1820342811_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_114(1).thumb.jpg.04ecff68f386ebe4f71af8f4758d3e7e.jpg

Freezing level.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_120.thumb.jpg.4fddf3a99f3af6c519b6adefe24894bf.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_132.thumb.jpg.eb65eb927db683a267d5a68a4b273dfd.jpg

After this brief northerly high pressure moves back in but is a transitory high on the move to the east of the UK. 

4th..👇

1091549693_EUROPE_PRMSL_144(7).thumb.jpg.7f0b0025e6ae7adb82a048bdca4a3c82.jpg

By around the 7th high pressure is centred around Central /Eastern Europe with low pressure systems beginning to move in with rain returning but with some cold air over the country this would likely start off as wet snow for a time before turning back to rain before clearing away southeastwards. But this is speculative as its over a week out and likely to change somewhat. 

1649931697_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(2).thumb.jpg.6d110a586e550987ece2ebd99da3fbdd.jpg

1555174166_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_222(4).thumb.jpg.59552aa31e5d51c3121fe01d8d279c4d.jpg

8th.. 👇

361511538_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(12).thumb.jpg.81c795a46dd4ec6f1d0d22ea45887446.jpg

With the Gfs central and southern UK having a lot of mostly dry weather cloud amounts vary but more sunshine than in recent days and quite cold especially shown for later in the first week of January for Scotland more unsettled and windy at times and milder with spells of rain quite heavy at times although some drier days at time although on the whole a gradual decline into more unsettled weather for most of the country towards and around day 10.

Ecm the synoptics look more unsettled than the Gfs but tbh its just windier than the Gfs but has a lot of dry weather for all of the 10 day period for England and Wales with not much rain at all quite wet for Western Scotland shown the Ecm also makes less of the northerly for around the 3rd or 4th.. With just a northwest tilt to winds bringing cooler air down with patchy rain thereafter higher pressure for southern parts but the north has a brisk westerly flow with temperatures quite mild. 

1st.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_72.thumb.jpg.c4583e0d2860084363b430232620e0eb.jpg

4th..👇

504289683_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_144(12).thumb.jpg.0ec4ba58b0dc6cf1f9cd3a75aa0d3857.jpg

6th..👇

59545644_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(7).thumb.jpg.23ea6c36c4cf23a93ffaf24ce085441a.jpg

8th..👇

1950606281_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(11).thumb.jpg.3f0f7f7f383b57c63d92055e247b6e46.jpg

Gem similar to the Ecm in terms of synoptics except for a more potent northerly around the 3rd although wetter with the band of rain around the 2nd into the 3rd and with more rain towards day 10.. 

3rd..👇

94948154_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_108(3).thumb.jpg.96ce11bf06cbc849a2534288be108b4f.jpg

223263267_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_114(2).thumb.jpg.f6da894b3f396128a3c7e704fff37e7e.jpg

6th..👇

1437272015_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_180(1).thumb.jpg.297359e60423ca211c681bae80433572.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_198.thumb.jpg.2e7512e29dc2714214e5773425a4860b.jpg

8th..👇

1631176537_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(12).thumb.jpg.eb70f52eb0364ad66f0ab743c2c0ad91.jpg

Blending all three models together with the average output this is the output.. 

3rd..👇

915590108_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(6).thumb.jpg.cd2a831b38d78079f6e7e70394e33687.jpg

5th..👇

154624089_EUROPE_PRMSL_156(4).thumb.jpg.b89679442c330a06fbedc5744fd8d3ce.jpg

6th..👇

564734873_EUROPE_PRMSL_192(11).thumb.jpg.eb1294eb80f3182eb5581c1250810310.jpg

8th..👇

1553995625_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(13).thumb.jpg.30d35d80d24e357bcd296b8a9b2d46af.jpg

Settled and dry for the most part for the next few days for central and southern UK with only a couple of occasions of rain mostly fairly light with western Scotland generally unsettled with some heavy rain at times with a brief colder interlude from the north or northwest around the 3rd with a band of rain preceding it with a few wintry showers for Scotland.

Towards or around mid January things look likely to become more unsettled widely once again and perhaps a little colder generally too. 🎄

Edited by jordan smith

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