Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

Recommended Posts

spacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

UKMO , GEM and ECM 0Zs looking broadly similar for the cold shot on 4th Jan. 

spacer.png

and GFS 6Z continues in much the same fashion.

 

Could be rather chilly in the NE of the country especially for a couple of days.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sign of replacement of high pressure,with temperatures on the way down.The next few days will show 

if the pressure rise starts heading north,how far could be crucial for cold lovers.A definite chance of

pressure  rise changing from south east  to northwest.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs consistent asever? 

F611E943-9EB2-4A48-BA68-5561B8C419CE.png

A6FFB02E-5652-4F31-8F63-72A72A5BD7DF.png

It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It's a wonder the GFS ever bothers going out to 384 anyways...Entertainment value at least

Indeed, there has been the rare occasion when there was a strong signal for cold and it picked up way out in fi 2010 springs to mind but it’s as rare as rocking horse poo to be fair?

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did someone say garden path? ?

image.thumb.png.0b9e348f1c4e4ba447211a15697d7c66.png 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I did have an incline that things were indeed ready for a turning point and I'm not let down by that notion! Some real data to get ya teeth into this morning as we gain.   And the temp plots are by far the best yet as we move into January.  And pronounced blocking appears again with some notable 2m temp plots to boot..... has the Real winter ride now begun?!?  ... probably imo!!!!

IMG_0128.PNGTemp plot

IMG_0129.PNG500 geo-potential 

IMG_0130.PNG2m,s

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Just don't get your hopes up too high for a few days!

 

I should say so!  Anyway, nice all the same to see something a little more positive for us poor old coldies!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big difference in London 2 meter temperature from ECMWF  5th to the 8th January.Have they figured out

where this high pressure is going to settle.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18/12/2019 at 15:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just out of interest given we are now 7 days from Christmas lets see how close the models are from 7 days out ( I will revisit with the actual chart for comparison after Christmas) 

GFS gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.3690721d81a8dffe51e3a8fff3fbbe2c.png CPTEC cptecnh-0-192.thumb.png.fe869d854a1cc417d71a223e006afca2.png NCMRWF ncmrwfnh-0-180.thumb.png.3a087405547fb59bbd084e4428bf88b0.png FIM fimnh-0-180.thumb.png.10614ef8352df206b21ab1c00e2e7921.png 

 NASA/GEOS5 geosnh-0-180.thumb.png.cf91f9d5cbd09bc53128599dc6cf2406.png NAVGEM navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.b5bbab42032678cfbdc306779c82b9c2.png GEM gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.f8947728effb2ee7890f5474a893b2c7.png ICON/DWD iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.5d53bc158ba38c742d0ce5b5846cf52d.png   

JMA JN192-21.thumb.gif.b3fbdcf4afe71cd0992bbf8d985eae9d.gif Many differences between them but key areas to me look to be Atlantic / UK and possibly most interesting the differences / struggles with the higher pressure toward Russia / Siberia.

 

 

gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.ecfdb84aa6fd378c4207749f2763740c.png Looks like the NASA/GEOS5 was closest for the UK but the JMA done well with the position of the lows in the Atlantic, overall the models struggled with the higher pressure over the UK and over done the lower pressure / trough to the east.

On 23/12/2019 at 13:38, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 With the MJO going through short spells in phases 3, 4 & 5 and the outlook for phases 6 / 7 upcoming that looks to tie in with what the models are showing DecemberPhase3all500mb.thumb.gif.57d6fda57b54057b4776eadbc566966d.gifimage.thumb.png.49aa86bc5d6801e18ecd75d57eb6dcd4.png1834473907_DecemberPhase4all500mb(1).thumb.gif.f1865ce6845b6a11bed7a68d2a5c13b8.gifimage.thumb.png.ed17e838e671650fc7917d0e200ccc57.png DecemberPhase5all500mb.thumb.gif.ba5c2b1f9c53d25b793ea6f72660a742.gifimage.thumb.png.b903380de042645f458f286eef227e57.png

DecemberPhase6all500mb.thumb.gif.ce6f0605b46c91aa00f2b4b431bfb020.gif image.thumb.png.b7cf28e6d2b7d46372223ef9ada3c745.pngDecemberPhase7all500mb.thumb.gif.ec11da5ad0b7a90038d104ede89feb42.gifJanuaryPhase7All500mb.thumb.gif.2bfd9f5bfc644df84c6d8ffbebeb0faa.gifimage.thumb.png.b24bf236bafd48a2edc7dd604943f1ae.pngimage.thumb.png.7ad6e84d2b69778654e4e11b9b543449.png Gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW and a westerly theme (perhaps bordering on that dreaded "zonal" word popping up) phase 6 is a bit of a no mans land in terms of UK weather although still probably a westerly theme possibly weaker  not as unsettled and for us coldies phase 7 COULD be the key with a NE / E flow indicated, so I think I will be taking a break from model watching until signs of the MJO heading into phase 7 (hopefully) . 

Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. Well we are now in phase 7 MJO although models only want to stay in phase 7 for a few days ( I would say the longer the better should any higher pressure develop like shown in the those phase 7 charts above to give us a better chance at something colder, though I think we are in a slight lag period and still stick with that general outlook above, also the phase 7 for January looks more favourable than that for December so ideally remaining in phase 7 heading into the start of January would be best but not sure if that will happen.)

Looking at the charts for the strat some warming perhaps developing during the first week of Jan and some hints of a possible displacement of the PV toward Scandinavia (though the models have struggled this year with strength of the PV and any warming so caution / low confidence with this)

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some upstream amplification of the pattern showing it's hand,this from the Pacific ridge by day 10 so hopefully something will come of this and we see our high developing further north later.

EDH101-240.thumb.gif.b42e984834ef87db06be40a021457c9b.gif

Meantime it's a pretty much ridge/trough pattern across the Atlantic with the jet to the north keeping any high pressure around middle latitudes.Currently a lot of mild tropical maritime air in the flow and for many of us quite a benign spell of high pressure dominance for sometime-away from the north west that is where Atlantic fronts are currently bringing rain.

It looks like at the end of the week we may well import some colder air from the north west as fronts make more progress south east.

Thursday

fax120s.thumb.gif.fb703534b3860f97aeaf2c8fc536f85b.gif

We will have to see how this goes but it looks like another Atlantic high builds in which will likely mean some quite cold temperatures at the surface with night frosts again.

 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will take the thin blue red line please?

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.caa6c77f9ce7718276476642063e7236.gif

some great post's in here today,thanks

at least it will be dry for the next several days which is a bonus.

ensemble-rrrcum-london.thumb.gif.db186273bcf3ea45e561be7c8ada645d.gif

enjoy the rest of your day peeps and i will catch you all later.

 

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Another nicked chart from kind subscribers to weatherbell...

There is distinct interest in this longe range EPS chart. 
ecmwf_ensemble_c00_nhemi_z500_anom_88736

 

 

As you say distinct interest as this is the chart that I see

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.194b97475b4a97af189ee5c7d8aec440.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, knocker said:

As you say distinct interest as this is the chart that I see

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8873600.thumb.png.194b97475b4a97af189ee5c7d8aec440.png

Looks even more impressive when viewed like this!

assuming I have got it right 

26CAC29D-B687-4D97-ADAE-7788A1FB47D7.jpeg

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks @Mattwolves,Happy new year to you too,and enjoy your break,i am not back at work until the 6th:oldsmile:

just about to mention these few ens but in NH profile as i thought that they would look better:shok::oldgrin:

gensnh-2-1-384.thumb.png.034b74018f4e92edf9bc597eb2b15cb4.pnggensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.7d4589f7b47c27458ff934b1281933d3.pnggensnh-18-1-384.thumb.png.18731d51330f427bbe498fc27359cc06.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.88fb8c02f8c07d4f1af960c000ab0e8d.png

but the one that stood out just after day ten was P8 with a very cold injection of cold from the north

gensnh-8-1-264.thumb.png.3ad30696acb95f670a161c56f9e70682.pnggensnh-8-0-276.thumb.png.667700d0ebf298d88371714104a4684f.png

12 gefs ens shows a clear cold snap around the 4th Jan and possibly another one around the 9th>,one to watch

today's v 26th

graphe3_1000_265_30___.thumb.png.085755e0631086e242783d159dbb68d9.pnggraphe3_1000_262_26___.thumb.png.baed624b9a1a9a41e7cc35f553a467f0.png

finally,a cracking sunset this evening.

DSC02664.thumb.JPG.8200f523714c9ea0a4243b5597ae39d5.JPGDSC02676.thumb.JPG.85a15957dc8a33e175ece70c79b45c96.JPG

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to take a break from model watching over the last week. The models showing a more mixed picture for the New Year period, than the week just gone, but everything seems to be just coming back on itself - in terms of the positioning of the current ridge. 

New Years Eve looking quite pleasant and a cold frosty start to 2020. Something milder and wetter 2nd then a flip to a cold polar shot on the 3rd, then high pressure back settling into its current position.

I've not been studying the longer term ensembles etc, just focusing on the near term at the moment.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • A nip in the air once the rain clears with strong winds in the next few days

    A cold front is bringing rain over England and Wales this morning with a coolness behind it. The risk of frost appears with gales for the SW on Thursday and a chilly north wind for all by Friday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Hurricane Teddy and eastern Canada

    Hurricane Teddy is forecast to transition before it makes landfall over Nova Scotia midweek then impacting Newfoundland but there is already wet and windy weather reaching eastern Canada Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...