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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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A definite change the last few runs for the better (especially the alps) , much better ridge this weekend so pretty cold with decent frosts for the U.K., then mid next week the HP leaves Europe and the jet heads back south. Just need the PV to shift and get some heights into Greeny now - not asking too much is it? 

26A21898-25B6-4688-B4DD-646794CCD40C.png
 

The Med looks very different now (day 14 (FI)) with a nicely positioned low (aids potential easterly should we get any high lat HP) , just need some help up north now as the PV still looks pretty potent over N Canada!! 

F532AC98-F1A5-46C2-BEF6-2CA6CD3C03AD.png
 

EDIT: The 11 day GFS ENS mean doesn’t agree with the Op, HP still in charge over Europe. 🤔

0C73B77D-F4F5-4FC2-9A79-0BB15074832C.png

Edited by Ali1977

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T144 for all 3. A step in the direction of something a little more seasonal at least.👍

2D8C4DFA-8FD7-43C8-8D1C-E70F633143C7.png

3C36F6B7-900A-42F2-8356-37C2795C93A3.png

B76EA786-A494-4001-9676-D9B25C19A0D3.png

D2854524-C47D-4B0E-807F-A1EC096ED358.png

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There is always the possibility that ensemble member 01 has nailed this...What a chart!😁

GFSP01EU00_348_1.png

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9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

There is always the possibility that ensemble member 01 has nailed this...What a chart!😁

GFSP01EU00_348_1.png

Nice, it’s a shame there’s no sign of that Euro HP disappearing on the ECM or EC ENS like that showing on the GFS Op. We need that to happen first !! 

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14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS 10-15 day H500 indicates ridging N over UK here to stay. Whether it can gain enough latitude to sllow a cold easterly undercut remains to be seen though. But it at least it offers potential for surface cold to build. Think raging mild zonality is increasingly being shunted out of the picture.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8873600.thumb.png.1727459ef14430b1d67b68aab7159ee3.png

We could be seeing the effects of MJO passage through 7-8 being increasingly picked up by the models through more and more amplification showing up over recent runs with the forcing of MLB over northern Europe.

Fingers crossed Nick.

I had a feeling winter was going to be hard work but not to this extent!

Hopefully we will see aweakening vortex as we move through Jan and the descending QBO having an effect.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS 10-15 day H500 indicates ridging N over UK here to stay. Whether it can gain enough latitude to sllow a cold easterly undercut remains to be seen though. But it at least it offers potential for surface cold to build. Think raging mild zonality is increasingly being shunted out of the picture.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8873600.thumb.png.1727459ef14430b1d67b68aab7159ee3.png

We could be seeing the effects of MJO passage through 7-8 being increasingly picked up by the models through more and more amplification showing up over recent runs with the forcing of MLB over northern Europe.

This potentialy could have been a reasonably cold surface chart for Europe if we had widespread snow cover which we dont and will not have in Continental Europe over next 7+days appart from high ground. One example was yestersday, north easterlies with T850hPa @ -11C and still managed +3C Tmax! and at 380 m.asl, looking at next 10 days its up and down with our "friend" Euro high to the rescue of mild weather

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31 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS 10-15 day H500 indicates ridging N over UK here to stay. Whether it can gain enough latitude to allow a cold easterly undercut remains to be seen though. But it at least it offers potential for surface cold to build. Think raging mild zonality is increasingly being shunted out of the picture.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8873600.thumb.png.1727459ef14430b1d67b68aab7159ee3.png

We could be seeing the effects of MJO passage through 7-8 being increasingly picked up by the models through more and more amplification showing up over recent runs with the forcing of MLB over northern Europe.

Are you thinking the GFS Op is wrong in the way it gets rid of the Euro HP by day 11?

5A328DAB-402C-4E7C-A666-041BE4A38336.png

Edited by Ali1977

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EC det is really cold by day 7 onwards this morning, moreso for Eng and wales..

(It is surface cold but we see a drag off the continent .)

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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are you thinking the GFS Op is wrong in the way it gets rid of the Euro HP by day 11?

5A328DAB-402C-4E7C-A666-041BE4A38336.png

Well, the op is out of kilter with the GEFS mean

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.42f453199d62d25ce0af0bd205fc5619.png

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well, the op is out of kilter with the GEFS mean

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.42f453199d62d25ce0af0bd205fc5619.png

True, could be leading the way but no support from the ECM/ENS so guessing it’s another flop!! 

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46 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS 10-15 day H500 indicates ridging N over UK here to stay. Whether it can gain enough latitude to allow a cold easterly undercut remains to be seen though. But it at least it offers potential for surface cold to build. Think raging mild zonality is increasingly being shunted out of the picture.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8873600.thumb.png.1727459ef14430b1d67b68aab7159ee3.png

 

I'm not sure I quite follow that. Surely any ridging is to the east of the UK with the centre of the surface high cell  probably to the south east?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-mslp-8830400.thumb.png.d6779004bbc0d4409b13deaac80465ea.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-t850_anom_5day-8830400.thumb.png.3880d781b49204b6c3852fec7c855f5d.png

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC det is really cold by day 7 onwards this morning, moreso for Eng and wales..

(It is surface cold but we see a drag off the continent .)

I guess the building high traps cold polar air that sweeps SE across UK on day 6 

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I guess the building high traps cold polar air that sweeps SE across UK on day 6 

DET is certainly very cold day 7 onwards.

I guess we have to wait to see if its a go-er over the next 48 hours or so..

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This is where the placement of any high pressure is super super key.. You can get some really really cold nights and days if you can pull in cold from the continent (if its there) or trap cold air under the high. 

 

Be interesting to see how this plays out and I don't think it is all doom and gloom (although this current moist and mild feed is very doom and gloom here) 

Some long range forecasts from end of November have done pretty well in that blocking looked likely to appear from end of December onwards we just didn't (still don't) really know how its going to pan out.. 

 

Great conditions for drying the ground out and cooling it down ready for the snow in Feb and March 🤣

Edited by Surrey

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

DET is certainly very cold day 7 onwards.

I guess we have to wait to see if its a go-er over the next 48 hours or so..

Rather depends if can resist the eastbound energy

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-8398400.thumb.png.d1042454feae49490612e570133dbaa9.png228.thumb.png.4a7fb3c9a7832ccf5d1c987523808985.png

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21 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure I quite follow that. Surely any ridging is to the east of the UK with the centre of the surface high cell  probably to the south east?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-mslp-8830400.thumb.png.d6779004bbc0d4409b13deaac80465ea.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-t850_anom_5day-8830400.thumb.png.3880d781b49204b6c3852fec7c855f5d.png

I'm not suggesting any wind direction is likely, the ens mslp certainly not best guide for knowing where high pressure may set-up at that range, but if high pressure is over parts of UK and the flow is slack, day time temps may struggle if skies have been clear overnight sllowing frost. Cold Pm flow into Europe preceding the ridging helping in any surface cold. All conjecture for now, pressure may not build as much northward.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Rather depends if can resist the eastbound energy

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-8398400.thumb.png.d1042454feae49490612e570133dbaa9.png228.thumb.png.4a7fb3c9a7832ccf5d1c987523808985.png

Quite.

Which is why i said the next 48 hours will be more revealing, i'm not bought on the EC progression just yet but it does look very cold for southern UK in particular.

Of course it might look flatter by the 7pm tonight 🙂

 

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It might be worth mentioning the talk of cold on EC det is not in an 'uppers' sense.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It might be worth mentioning the talk of cold on EC det is not in an 'uppers' sense.

I'm well aware that it is a 'cold high' but that still relies on the high cell not being shunted away. Anyway I will go back to retirement and leave all of this to the weather enthusiasts,😎

Edited by knocker

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Just now, knocker said:

I'm well aware that it is 'cold high' but that still relies on the high cell not being shunted away. Anyway I will go back to retirement and leave all of this to the weather enthusiasts,😎

😄

Mean suggests the det was a bit optimistic for those wanting a cold high, 12zs might reveal more ..

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18 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

As usual pointless following the endless mean charts being posted for day 8/9/10 waste of time when amplification occurring at day 6..

 

with respect..... you say that but time and time again these "pointless" mean charts are being proven to be very much near the mark despite any amplification at day 6 on one operational run, that disappears on subsequent ones.

John Holmes research into the NOAA 500mb mean is bang on.... they, when consistent , are very accurate, so much so that i personally can confidently blog about the general pattern thats likely for the 6-14 day timeframe. Of course they are not infallible , no data source is, but with a success rate of 80-90% that trumps any phantom amplification or "favoured model switch to see which one promotes the weather pattern of choice".

I really dont get why this method is not more widely used, if little old me with a very rudimentary understanding of the meteorological science can produce accurate blogs , why dont others?.

 

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