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Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

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6 minutes ago, IDO said:

They have been modelled for days, mini-ridges in the zonal flow, so alternating mild and cold flows, but transient. The sine-wave flow highlighted on the pressure plot:

graphe4_1000_305_147___.thumb.png.5c06a09f6d5b806f128f30ba19af5dfd.png

The tPV flow to our north seems unlikely to allow any ridge to build within the next 12 days.

D16 mean again suggesting the tPV in charge and looking less likely that the core will settle to our NW. However the current picture means rather than zonal, more likely HP influence:

1695920191_gensnh-21-1-384(17).thumb.png.51d6222cdadaa35fe493082952e0d5b7.png1373752436_gensnh-21-0-384(1).thumb.png.24e7009d5eb0bc54a182ad54aab026b1.png

...as the trough drops into E.Europe. Good for cold towards our east, but average for the UK. Though where the high sits may affect temperatures from that high with the op on the very mild side.

ECM and GFS op still very similar so the pattern remains confident; D10:

738384249_ECH1-240(25).thumb.gif.00a10046ad93b0f4c98d830e575a5d96.gif2039793275_gfsnh-0-240(16).thumb.png.6d8453ab88716fba4b20b45d91359092.png

Both hinting at maybe a Pacific Ridge, though ECM has a cut-off low curve-ball that makes it more messy. GEFS not really playing ball yet, so maybe the ops are overplaying or it is not sustained?

No sign yet of any sustained cold for the UK with a poor winter pattern as we enter January.

Agreed, I was trying to look at it from a 1/4 full rather than a 3/4 empty and haven’t  got any money for another pint pov 🤣

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Models are projecting a mainly dry and at times cool (at night in particular) outlook this morning.

Much better than wind and rain for me but little sign of any high pressure able to gain traction and retrogress, thanks to a horrid profile to the North west in particular.

 

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Morning all.Of all the models this morning , the UKMO gives the best hope for some colder weather in the period 144t -192t . The extended chart below out to 168t pushes the cold front through much of the British Isles with some much colder airmass promised for the NE of Scotland, possibly deep enough for snow showers. Also better positioning of the Atlantic high which appears to not allow as much energy on the Northern Arm as compared to GFS. We will see if this trend continues, hopefully.

C

 

ukm2.2020010400.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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Good morning everyone. 

I've been in hibernation waiting in vain hope for some drier colder weather.. lol. 

I've been watching with interest the models picking up this as we head into January. 

 

t850Western~Isles.png

The wobble from the Jetstream from the models. The wobble as I call it will have a knock on effect on the weather we receive in January. Yes a mild SSW may take place, but I don't expect to see a reversal of winds etc. Colder weather and snow is  going to come from the North or North West. I think ridges of high pressure from mid Atlantic interdespersed with deep NWly flows  toppling down. I'm noting the Polar Vortex over the UK during warming too. 

No classic beasterlies yet.

But pretty exciting and fast moving weather to be had. 

 

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a little bit of interest from the Ensemble GEFS ( run de controle ) 0Z

 

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some hope from the GEM too. ( if you are looking for a brief cold NNW plunge.

 

The hint for a short cold spell around 4th Jan continues.......perhaps

 

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Another poor run from ECM but expected to be honest. Going to be a fair time before we get rid of this setup

Experience suggests that’s likely true 

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23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Saturday 28 December 2019

Looking at the 500 mb anomaly output.

Ec-gfs and both are fairly similar in the strength/position of the major trough and ridgingsouth of the wide trough, noaa and its contour lines are not much different.

All 3 suggest strong atlantic flow, just a shade s of west into uk and well on into Europe, not a lot of indication of any troughing over Europe, maybe a slight hint on gfs. Contour heights, using noaa and the 546 dm line is over n’ern Scotland, so the flow is a generally mild one, and likely quite unsettled much of the time. The 8-14 noaa is pretty similar so no major change showing into the start of the 2nd week of January!

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Interesting- GEFS look very dry, for London anyway for the next 10 -14 days..

image.thumb.png.5084bf2a3dbe9115f9e264cb655802fa.png

ECM

 

image.thumb.png.687a4cd2bdd09788ad56abc8020eb431.png

image.thumb.png.e491a1894d3bbd2b487f29eed57f5635.png

Just a snapshot but the theme is similar- BBC raw also very dry as far north as Manchester for the next 10 days or so..

Edited by northwestsnow

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9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you've hit the nail on head though - so called winter - will you be doing the Frankley walk up to the dingle in snow at all this winter?

Lol you no the area then? Unfortunately the way things are looking at the mo it’s very unlikely and also the dingle is now an old people’s home. 

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What I find encouraging is seeing the high being centred towards the UK as opposed to South West Europe. I have seen many potent cold spells being preceded by a long period of quiet anticyclonic weather so here's hoping. 

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Saturday 28 December 2019

Looking at the 500 mb anomaly output.

Ec-gfs and both are fairly similar in the strength/position of the major trough and ridgingsouth of the wide trough, noaa and its contour lines are not much different.

All 3 suggest strong atlantic flow, just a shade s of west into uk and well on into Europe, not a lot of indication of any troughing over Europe, maybe a slight hint on gfs. Contour heights, using noaa and the 546 dm line is over n’ern Scotland, so the flow is a generally mild one, and likely quite unsettled much of the time. The 8-14 noaa is pretty similar so no major change showing into the start of the 2nd week of January!

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Not sure I agree with unsettled - maybe the far NW closest to the low, but most of England and Wales only expected to see 0-20mm rain over the next 10 days.

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all.Of all the models this morning , the UKMO gives the best hope for some colder weather in the period 144t -192t . The extended chart below out to 168t pushes the cold front through much of the British Isles with some much colder airmass promised for the NE of Scotland, possibly deep enough for snow showers. Also better positioning of the Atlantic high which appears to not allow as much energy on the Northern Arm as compared to GFS. We will see if this trend continues, hopefully.

C

 

ukm2.2020010400.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Latest GFS run looks like flat as pancake compared to the above UKMO extended.

C

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12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest GFS run looks like flat as pancake compared to the above UKMO extended.

C

I am hoping the UKMO has it right but the ECM wasn’t great neither!! I noticed a METO Senior wrote a POSSIBILITY of high pressure relinquishing it’s grip in a weeks time - not sure if that comment was on viewing the UKMO or there are hints in GLOSEA. If nothing showing on the 12z I think my hope of that occurring will disappear!! 
Im scrabbling for any crumbs of comfort that shows a slim chance of alps snowfall 2nd week of Jan - not looking great at the min. 
 

Poss signs of jet stream heading further south by day 11 on this GFS run, HP pulling out of Europe too 🤞

E3B045EF-5543-43A7-91A0-52DC172A7C57.png

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest GFS run looks like flat as pancake compared to the above UKMO extended.

C

Yeh i think we will end up somewhere in between the ukmo and gfs maybe a bit flatter!!ecm looks about right to me maybe?!!a least its dry for the next 10 days and with some night frosts and 5 or 6 degrees by day here in the midlands so could be worse!!

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A nice little 2 day dip in 850s between Jan 3 and Jan 5 . Most of the models showing something similar and MetO forecast hints at this too ,

So not all bad. Probably quite dry and chilly for most of us in the first week of Jan with a few frosts perhaps . ( rather than wet mild and unsettled )  

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57 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What I find encouraging is seeing the high being centred towards the UK as opposed to South West Europe. I have seen many potent cold spells being preceded by a long period of quiet anticyclonic weather so here's hoping. 

This is the sort of thing to keep a look out for, HP moving up towards Scandi. 

gfseu-0-336.png

gfseu-1-336.png

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is the sort of thing to keep a look out for, HP moving up towards Scandi. 

gfseu-0-336.png

gfseu-1-336.png

That looks cold for Greece and Eastern Europe at least 

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8 minutes ago, Griff said:

That looks cold for Greece and Eastern Europe at least 

Indeed. It would not take much though for some of that cold to come our way. Gives us a glimmer of hope, no doubt it will be all change again on the 12z.

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gfsnh-1-360.png

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by snowray

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Well, I never: a straw that might even be worth clutching! Then again, I may just be clutching at straws!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png :oldgrin:

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15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I never: a straw that might even be worth clutching! Then again, I may just be clutching at straws!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png :oldgrin:

Wow! Impressive areaof high pressure there - and probably if the necessary strength to ward off the Atlantic. Certainly cold or very cold at the surface even if uppers are still not that cold.

Aside from monstrous highs, some of the charts recently are a bit like January 2017. A below average month but mainly dry, cold and frosty, also quite sunny with minimal action off the Atlantic and a brief snowy northwesterly midmonth.

Despite the otherwise unexciting outlook, I personally welcome the onset of much drier conditions!

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excitement builds for tonight’s miracle two day cold snap! 

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better than wind , rain and mush i suppose

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed. It would not take much though for some of that cold to come our way. Gives us a glimmer of hope, no doubt it will be all change again on the 12z.

gfsnh-0-360.png

gfsnh-1-360.png

gfs-1-384.png

Goodmorning peeps 😊

Hope you all are ok a rather dull start here in Walthamstow East London this morning. 

The models all seem to be on one theme for sure this morning is that we are going to have high pressure near or over us. From what I am reading there already seems to some kind of change from the general theme going forward. Change in terms of a long fetched southwesterly pattern with often windy and rainy weather. I think we were all made to believe a few days ago that this would go out to mid January at least. However with high pressure more on the agenda I think this is a positive move in the right direction. We are in that time of winter when temperatures can fall away quite quickly especially at night under clear skies. Also daytime temperatures can have an impact where there is a lot of fog or mist if this is slow to clear then daytime temperatures tend to struggle. So to sum up this high pressure may be the opportunity to Lower our daytime temperatures (however if we get a southerly over the high then temperatures could actually climb) let's see where this goes.

The second bit of hope is yes there have been times when these kind of situations have helped bring in colder air from the continent ( as long as the position of the high gets centered correctly). What we need to look out for going forward is any movement further North or N/E of the high so we can start to tap into colder air. The weather online out look for January is going with this idea with high pressure moving further North and winds then turning Easterly. Whether this will pan out like this we don't know but fingers crossed could we do it this time our hearts are dying to see this happen.

So that's where we sit for now it is a bit more optimistic than the doom and gloom a few days ago. We need to see how the next 4 or 5 days pan out and what the signals are in the longer term. Whether we are going to be lucky who knows many of the jigsaw pieces have to fall in place. Still on the down side European temperatures are struggling to fall, once we start to see some kind of useful downtrend in that direction then tapping into something from that direction will be worthwhile.

We can just sit back and hope now that the new year will bring s new weather pattern. We are all together on here fingers crossed we live in that hope.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER  WONDERLAND GOES ON ❄️❄️

Wishing you all a great Saturday 

all the best stay safe

regards 😊😊😊😊

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Nothing much to get excited about on the 06oz run. No cold in reliable time frame but I suppose we will get some sunny spells. Garden sadly will start growing and will need attention. Tomorrows job....

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