Model output discussion - into Christmas

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I come in peace good folk. I feel a tad more optimistic today, firstly I feel a decent update from exeter, regarding rather chilly and potentially Frosty conditions for the South and East of the UK further into January! Its going to be stagnant for the next few days away from the NW for sure, but I feel changes maybe a foot for the final 3rd of the new month, and perhaps February bringing a bigger change! Snowmaggedon charts will begin to manifest by March for sure.. Just watch that Northern blocking take hold come April and May.. Back to the hear and now, some cold shots lining up on the 12z ensembles, patience folks, we maybe in a cul de sac right now, but pretty soon we will be reaching the highway.. A toast to all you good netweather peeps...

[northwestsnow]

EC monthly is horrendous,

 

[Ali1977]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC monthly is horrendous,

 

3rd week (actually 2nd now looking at the dates) looks wet (blues I think) , but everything points to a big HP over us and Europe - where’s the moisture coming from? 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd week (actually 2nd now looking at the dates) looks wet (blues I think) , but everything points to a big HP over us and Europe - where’s the moisture coming from? 

Likely Atlantic systems skirting across North western parts.

Think we are going to need a dramtic flip to save Jan personally.

 

[mb018538]

Just look at this folks...

In the last 3 months the GEM (Canadian model) has verified as more accurate than the GFS. ECM a mile ahead as you’d expect. Is it time to pay the gem a bit more respect? Also to trust the GFS a bit less? It’s  been diabolical in early winter with the strat and PV forecasts.

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Just look at this folks...

In the last 3 months the GEM (Canadian model) has verified as more accurate than the GFS. ECM a mile ahead as you’d expect. Is it time to pay the gem a bit more respect? Also to trust the GFS a bit less? It’s  been diabolical in early winter with the strat and PV forecasts.

The GFS has been an underachiever for quite some time, it’s a swing model these days.  

[Duane S.]

Tonight’s strawclutcher, January 4th.

A few ens have been hinting at something for a few days now, and the GFS 12z was no exception. Here’s one of a few bringing in a cold Northerly around then...

Unfortunately the caveat... Clearly even if ( big IF) this did come to fruition, it is very difficult to see how it would be anything else other than a textbook toppler.

Beggars can’t be choosers though, I think we’d all take that right now if offered!

[January Snowstorm]

I think we have to bear in mind that sooner or later a pattern change will occur. I just don't buy the fact that January is a right off other than maybe the first week!! Something will crop up over the next few days to get us out of the current slumber....its been a Christmas to forget weatherwise which of course was identical to last year and indeed many of the last 10!!

So let's see where the morning runs go. I sense a change in fortunes is closer than many think  ( if only using the law of averages as a theory )

[PiscesStar]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I think we have to bear in mind that sooner or later a pattern change will occur. I just don't buy the fact that January is a right off other than maybe the first week!! Something will crop up over the next few days to get us out of the current slumber....its been a Christmas to forget weatherwise which of course was identical to last year and indeed many of the last 10!!

So let's see where the morning runs go. I sense a change in fortunes is closer than many think  ( if only using the law of averages as a theory )

Where do you think we may start to see changes or indeed where should our attention be focused?! 

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Where do you think we may start to see changes or indeed where should our attention be focused?! 

I would think the Northwest for a pattern reset to kinda where we were a few weeks back with the jet diving South once more only this time the uppers will be that colder! Pure speculation I suppose but I'm around long enough to know things don't stay stagnant for too long!! Today's 180 hours is tomorrows 156!

[snowray]

Looking at the 18z I'm starting to think that this may end up turning into a rather cold HP, with frosts, freezing fog and the good old faux cold. The high may even start to migrate north towards the middle of January and end up dragging in much colder air. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would think the Northwest for a pattern reset to kinda where we were a few weeks back with the jet diving South once more only this time the uppers will be that colder! Pure speculation I suppose but I'm around long enough to know things don't stay stagnant for too long!! Today's 180 hours is tomorrows 156!

Yes,around that time that things are starting to turn colder for example taking the control run although the ridge will topple but i will take it

tonight's ens v last night's shows clearly that tonight's is a colder set between 3rd-4th Jan,it will be interesting to see if we can extend the colder temps from there.

 

[Daniel*]

All this talk of very mild weather not seeing much of it on GFS 18z London doesn’t reach double figures for entirety of the run unseasonable mild looks confined to sparsely populated regions N+W. Potentially much more in the way of frost and fog going into early January? 

[markw2680]

Like a few have said above, there’s bound to be some changes in the next week or so that should at least lead to something decent to follow, whether it would verify is a different matter but the weather never stays in a rut for to long, so yes pretty much all the models look poor for the foreseeable atm but I’m quite confident of a change sooner rather than later. Keep the faith people after all it’s still December so we have a whole of so called winter left yet

[len]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Likely Atlantic systems skirting across North western parts.

Think we are going to need a dramtic flip to save Jan personally.

 

I can't see these images. Way too small!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Like a few have said above, there’s bound to be some changes in the next week or so that should at least lead to something decent to follow, whether it would verify is a different matter but the weather never stays in a rut for to long, so yes pretty much all the models look poor for the foreseeable atm but I’m quite confident of a change sooner rather than later. Keep the faith people after all it’s still December so we have a whole of so called winter left yet

you've hit the nail on head though - so called winter - will you be doing the Frankley walk up to the dingle in snow at all this winter?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you've hit the nail on head though - so called winter - will you be doing the Frankley walk up to the dingle in snow at all this winter?

Not with all the brummies up there 

[Allseasons-Si]

It wouldn't take much to squeeze this mid lat high a bit further north and bingo,the floodgates would open because there is some pretty cold air bottled up north

It all depends on where this hp cell will sit and ideally we would want it to sit to our NE/N/NW or west and not SW/S/SE/ or east

i feel that we are starting to see some changes in the NWP.

[Geordiesnow]

You can see the hints the models are trying to perhaps change the pattern but it's not quite there. Do find the pattern of low pressure systems bumping into high and then dissolving quite interesting to watch. May help to bring marginally cooler air and if the high is more over the UK then a widespread frost can't be ruled out. 

No signs of any snowfall though but still time for that to arrive. 

[Ali1977]

Some differences between GFS and GEM at 168, especially with regards the PV where the GEM has the majority over to the Russian side of the pole.

 

Looking at the UKMO 144 it looks more like the GEM (heights Into Greeny too) , more reasons to think a pattern change may establish next weekend - although not mentioned by the METO so optimism held back!! 
 

EDIT - no ENS follow the UKMO , is the UKMO wrong or has it got this nailed !! Let’s see if the ECM sides with it.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

I had to post this cherry picked ENS, most the country in -14/16c uppers from a Northerly, imagine that!!

Edited December 28, 2019 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

Nice to see something other than a very flat pattern. Still away to go to get what many would want but it’s a start......

[The PIT]

Another poor run from ECM but expected to be honest. Going to be a fair time before we get rid of this setup

[IDO]

40 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Nice to see something other than a very flat pattern. Still away to go to get what many would want but it’s a start......

They have been modelled for days, mini-ridges in the zonal flow, so alternating mild and cold flows, but transient. The sine-wave flow highlighted on the pressure plot:

The tPV flow to our north seems unlikely to allow any ridge to build within the next 12 days.

D16 mean again suggesting the tPV in charge and looking less likely that the core will settle to our NW. However the current picture means rather than zonal, more likely HP influence:

...as the trough drops into E.Europe. Good for cold towards our east, but average for the UK. Though where the high sits may affect temperatures from that high with the op on the very mild side.

ECM and GFS op still very similar so the pattern remains confident; D10:

Both hinting at maybe a Pacific Ridge, though ECM has a cut-off low curve-ball that makes it more messy. GEFS not really playing ball yet, so maybe the ops are overplaying or it is not sustained?

No sign yet of any sustained cold for the UK with a poor winter pattern as we enter January.

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

They have been modelled for days, mini-ridges in the zonal flow, so alternating mild and cold flows, but transient. The sine-wave flow highlighted on the pressure plot:

The tPV flow to our north seems unlikely to allow any ridge to build within the next 12 days.

D16 mean again suggesting the tPV in charge and looking less likely that the core will settle to our NW. However the current picture means rather than zonal, more likely HP influence:

...as the trough drops into E.Europe. Good for cold towards our east, but average for the UK. Though where the high sits may affect temperatures from that high with the op on the very mild side.

ECM and GFS op still very similar so the pattern remains confident; D10:

Both hinting at maybe a Pacific Ridge, though ECM has a cut-off low curve-ball that makes it more messy. GEFS not really playing ball yet, so maybe the ops are overplaying or it is not sustained?

No sign yet of any sustained cold for the UK with a poor winter pattern as we enter January.

Agreed, I was trying to look at it from a 1/4 full rather than a 3/4 empty and haven’t  got any money for another pint pov