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Paul

Model output discussion - into Christmas

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WOW,lets have some of that!!!

what great model discussion we are havin

very GEM-ish.

543515499_gfsnh-0-252(1).thumb.png.cb191cf340250c314d37a5150ec113e9.png

and slides down the ramp!

but some good charts showing but lets get them down to reality 

but i am liking what is showing.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All academic as it's in la la land but it's goodnight vienna to the Atlantic by this point...setting up what would most likely be a lengthy cold spell...

image.thumb.png.88a9ea9ec203e2d1b2d9b106d0d0b00b.png

Classic late 70's set up. North East US gets brutal cold but we also get rich pickings too. 

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The jackpot coming in towards the end of this run . That would be a lovely spell of weather over Christmas if that run came of . Cold dry and very frosty and then the snow will follow 😉

26F4A524-24CF-40A8-8F3F-AC478DBF6173.png

DE9261A2-742A-46C5-9481-53F17BA90220.png

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Any clear skies under a high with the uppers in the SE and you are talking severe cold.

image.thumb.png.71f2adf91c0834e2d87110862b7f22cf.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Any clear skies under a high with the uppers in the SE and you are talking severe cold.

image.thumb.png.71f2adf91c0834e2d87110862b7f22cf.png

Feb, that is some Brutal cold dumbelling around Canada and the N states in FI...run the animation.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Feb, that is some Brutal cold dumbelling around Canada and the N states in FI...run the animation.

-44°C 850's showing across parts of Canada.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Feb, that is some Brutal cold dumbelling around Canada and the N states in FI...run the animation.

Yes - imagine -40c uppers over warm great lakes!!!!   -   Thundersnow galore -

EDIT : and way colder than we have experienced for most of the last decade getting as far South as mississipi again.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - imagine -40c uppers over warm great lakes!!!!   -   Thundersnow galore -

Imagine living there and seeing this run pop out weather forum melt down.

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Imagine living there and seeing this run pop out weather forum melt down.

I've spoken to a few Canadians...they all seem to hate snow!

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Imagine living there and seeing this run pop out weather forum melt down.

Not sure they have the same sense of adventure - certainly don't show it on 33andrain - just no personality on that place at all.

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5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Imagine living there and seeing this run pop out weather forum melt down.

-4 we have a meltdown

 

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hi all fans to me it seems we get the best in the beginning of 2020;anyway this is what we hoped for😎

 image.thumb.png.a0ac4dd9cac3e5165df8c9e812a2778b.png

 

LOVE WEATHER😀

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Just now, CreweCold said:

I've spoken to a few Canadians...they all seem to hate snow!

Likely sick of it cause it stays on the ground for 6 months a year there😅

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Ripe for retrogression to Greenland.

image.thumb.png.6a6179887ed2a446dc848cf9db9bcc1a.pngimage.thumb.png.85fd9e13d803b6d724520227c92658b0.pngimage.thumb.png.cd81a3b133b4ed4d43ea8cba5dc6eacc.pngimage.thumb.png.50dd765e0071c1f36a597ce8e4615ed5.png

The chart below is 'just for comparison fun'!

image.thumb.png.333384360d43c7ebc2e61ce63b72ee34.png

 

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2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Good evening peeps 😊

I think I got a tad excited earlier by some of the charts showing cold. I am a bit confused and scratching my head now after just listening to the BBC extended forcast. Christmas week staying unsettled with temperatures above the average and not a mention of any drier weather. I wonder what models and data they are using or is their forcast behind today's output? 

All the best 

regards 😊

 I don’t think the BBC forecast is behind if I am right they would use the current ECM data not only that but earlier in the afternoon the live Met Office stream on YouTube were saying the same thing but with low confidence

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ICON first out this morning and looking good. That's a very strong Russian/Scandi ridge as well.

iconnh-0-177.png?18-00iconnh-1-180.png?18-00

 

EDIT

 

UKMO 144 very strong Scandi ridge (stronger and further W  than ICON at same time)

UN144-21.GIF?18-05

GFS 144 quite different both down and upstream to UKMO

gfsnh-0-144.png

 

Edited by Mucka

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Xmas day undercut attempt , not sure it’ll bring in the goods on this go.

A4E35439-E27F-4742-830C-C0C35E28DC70.png

A little cut off HP at day 11, needs another undercut to get lift off. 

38119AD4-43DA-4AD0-8F73-B44E3B1510BC.png
 

And it gets it, will be a great FI

now over to the ENS.

517CA987-D203-4936-BBA6-37E1FD2FCE16.png

Edited by Ali1977

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One way or another american model GFS / GEFS are persistent on a cooling trend with Europe cooling down markedly ? that’s the first obstacle that needs to be overcome, and it as a reality seems to be becoming more likely. 

.2B62FBB8-9F09-43FA-80F9-861413DBC284.thumb.png.f141e1dca2ead212d85451a1eacefcf7.png8A53854E-F025-493E-AB0D-17E4A33BCF86.thumb.png.cd99281101a45c53216506330c43dc20.png

 

 

Edited by Daniel*

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