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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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I’ll take the ecm run. People saying at least it’s cold to our north....it’s the middle of winter. Of course it’s cold around the pole 😂 The important point is if that cold is accessible at the moment....and the answer is a resounding no. We will have to sit tight for a while folks.

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6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, a consequence of the jet moving north -

NW Scotland looks in the firing line over the coming week or two..(If GFS is to be believed).

Firstly, Merry Christmas to all perusing the forums this evening...

Secondly, It is disappointing seeing those height rises further south from a cold seekers perspective but it is so desperately needed. Ideally a high sat over the UK would be even better. Eyes down for the 18z...

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The D16 mean:

647123911_gensnh-21-1-384(15).thumb.png.bef7da997cfde13ebd46b96128805c58.png

Still highly suggestive of the main focal point, the tPV to our NW. The run up no longer indicates a Pacific Ridge, another false dawn! As the op at the end of the run suggests maybe a heights push in our sector, (some support GEFS), but we have seen them this far in FI before, where they make too much of it, so 7-days plus before we can qualify that.

ECM no longer showing the Pacific ridge either. It is noticeable that the ECM run throws up more wedges from the mini-ridge zonal pattern in the NH, suggestive that the tPV remain pliant. GFS pre-D10 also now changing to this. It really would only take one-wave forcing to cause havoc in the tPV and two-wave would be interesting to say the least! It remains quiet in that respect ATM.

Locally still ridge-trough combo's in the next 16-days with the plane further north so a less cold profile. In my location:

graphe6_1000_309_149___.thumb.png.24ca3505fd865a93c7dc0621c4f58618.pnggraphe9_1000_309_149___.thumb.png.dc4e66f22909540d00e2742ab90612ad.png

The mean suggestive of much milder than average temps, upper and surface. December looks like being 2c + above average and the start of Jan could be close to that. Further north the alternating troughs may bring cooler uppers at times but nothing dramatic on the op, until the end of the run, which we will have to watch.

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Nightmare runs continue GFS a bit more progressive than ECM but nothing for the cold hunters

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It’s not all bad folks, cheer up ! Models can flip very quickly to a more positive outlook for coldies. @IDO I honestly don’t know why you keep up the pre-tense every year that you like cold weather but just can’t find it? Why not just admit you like it mild and hunt for that in the models?  

This from the 00z GFS is not far off a decent easterly ....

8D36010A-A3D9-4E51-8F0B-3D8E228634D3.png

A28CF9C6-BA14-49AC-A89C-094FE961B044.png

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Cmon guy's, its the festive season, we're all fed up with the winter weather not playing ball, we can look at every available model, at every available hour day's away, but however frustrating it is, the weather will do, whatever it wants to do, Im not anywhere nr experienced as you lot in here, but I enjoy reading all the posts. Hope you've all had a great Christmas so far, and maybe with a new year fast approaching, winter may show it's hand

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I was well happy to have a ski holiday booked 2nd week of Jan, to get the snow fix after a rubbish December - however it now looks like I’ll be skiing in a t shirt and the town (1650m) will prob be green or slushy!! Hoping a pattern change can happen but the models aren’t budging from a European HP, neither is the METO long range. 😩 

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Outlook doesn't look too bad at all.   Mild and relatively dry in the south.  Will probably feel quite pleasant compared to what we've been used to so far this winter and seems like it'll be very useable weather.

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I think we can all be fairly confident given the models , the various media outlets and just the understanding of how stable the pattern that is about to develop is that the last week of December plus the first 10-15 days of January will be mild , drier and a bit boring! 

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Hey everyone 🙂

Hope you all had a fantastic Christmas. ❄️🎊

Just a short term update for now on the rain for parts of the south and southwest.. A very wet evening and first part of the night to come for southwestern parts of England and perhaps southern counties of England and South Wales with some very heavy bursts of rain mixed in as is already now taking place in southwest England this easing during the early hours and fizzling away there's been a fair amount of uncertainty with this in location of heaviest rainfall but as much as 15-30mm altogether likely for parts of southwest England, 10-15mm is possible for far southern counties of England and Wales so tricky driving conditions and localised flooding possible. 

Arome.. 👇

981300788_UK_RAIN1_12(2).thumb.jpg.63ccaf068e1844118f1df2d4d50b1140.jpg

141799383_UK_RAIN1_15(4).thumb.jpg.626eb588a8b9f612f6acf88675e3fe1f.jpg

191239320_UK_RAIN1_17(3).thumb.jpg.45b3bea4fcf58c69bbe33fe8f598baff.jpg

UK_RAIN1_20.thumb.jpg.5d46905cda7997a5c272bf4f5c695c59.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Fair points well made guys. I shouldn’t have taken my frustration at the lack of cold out on one poster so for that I apologise. Perhaps @Beanz you could take a leaf out of your own book when it comes to not bashing other posters though 🤷🏻‍♂️ Perhaps calling people desperate, biased and inexperienced could be classed as “bashing” 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Point taken - public apology on my part 👍🏻

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Come on guys, how many times have we been told to keep it civil in here!! We’re all a little frustrated about the huge teasing from the models over the past two winters, but we need to remember that we cannot attack others for their opinion or posting cold charts from FI, I mean it’s model discussion after all!! 
 

I don’t post much here for the simple fact that I’m unsure of how to use the terminology properly some of the time, but also because I’m afraid of being shouted at!

I hope the failed cold snaps and spells over the past two winters show us all that we cannot take anything as gospel until close range, and until we have cross model agreement (especially the UKMO!!). 
 

Mid teens are possible in the next few days which is pretty exceptional, wondering if we could have another winter temperature record falling like last February, now that was something else!

Merry Christmas and all the best for 2020, here’s to a 1947 repeat and/or a blazing summer! 😅😅
 

edit: forgot to say that it’s only December, still two (maybe three) months of winter remaining!

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:


 

I don’t post much here for the simple fact that I’m unsure of how to use the terminology properly some of the time, but also because I’m afraid of being shouted at!

I

 

Well you could try posting in the other MOD thread which is aimed at a far more civilized and discerning public and you also do not have to be an 'expert',.

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13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well you could try posting in the other MOD thread which is aimed at a far more civilized and discerning public and you also do not have to be an 'expert',.

And there was me thinking I was civilised, discerning and not an expert😩😩😩 

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18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

And there was me thinking I was civilised, discerning and not an expert😩😩😩 

Well it can be tricky as some time ago we, the lower orders,were advised that it wasn't really the done thing to question the opinions of those with more meteorological knowledge and experience. This put me in a quandary as I don't know who they are. 😎

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Ecm at least gives us a chart with -7 air over the uk. 👍👍 

5C985635-0249-4313-8204-37CBBCC5276B.png

Never know, could see some sort of toppler I guess, ECM ENS looking poor though for the next ten days, a bit better for the north with a 24hr colder blip, but nothing much to look forward to for now. Hopefully mid January with be of more interest.

graphe_ens3.png

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Never know, could see some sort of toppler I guess, ECM ENS looking poor though for the next ten days, a bit better for the north with a 24hr colder blip, but nothing much to look forward to for now. Hopefully mid January with be of more interest.

graphe_ens3.png

Yep, you’re in trouble when one 24hour chart showing some fleeting cold to the north of the uk turns out to be outlier 😩😩🤣🤣 hey ho 

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