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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

It's a shame Glosea wasn't as accurate last winter when it repeatedly predicted Northen Blocking!

Meanwhile I woke up this morning to find Uncle Barty sat in my chair, drinking my beer and eating mince pies!!

He informs me he might be staying a while..........

Andy

He can eat my mince pies but don't go near my beer.

Weather certainly is in the bah humbug mood hopefully the ghosts of Christmas past will change it's mind. CFS is nice it's got an easterly in Jan sadly it's nearly always wrong and nearly as pointless as the monthly outlook on the Beeb in the 70's. For those who can remember them that is.

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We're still on for a warm snap, then? One thing I've noticed is that the FV3 seems very good at picking out 'plumes', even at the ten-day range...?:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

However, the jury is still out, whenever it comes to anything colder:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Onwards and Upwards?!🚀

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Out of hibernation for a quick one, couldn't resist. Firstly a very happy Xmas, and once again any of you currently experiencing difficult times... My heart goes out to you. This time of the year really hits it home. The ECM mean perhaps toys with the idea of it becoming colder by day 10,there looks a fair amount of cold to our North! No doubt about it, its a sluggish start to to the winter... But remember 47 folks... 73 years since that great event... And look how late it started! There is always hope, even though its a major long shot. Hopefully soon, we will all have a little more cheer... Catch you soon gang.. 🎄🍻

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Yes I did my homeless run yesterday and brought a bit of cheer be it short lived.😞yes however poor the weather looks things can change quickly for the better cold wise.it is only December after all"cliche "alert.just a final thought,anyone having the mother in law for Xmas may be better getting a turkey next year!!all caveats etc🙂

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Today is certainly far from being the warmest Christmas Day the UK has ever had, despite it being nothing of note in terms of cold.  This December despite not having any significant cold snaps, has actually not had much in the way of mild days (double figures); it has just been average or just above with often polar maritime air in the flows.

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13 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Today is certainly far from being the warmest Christmas Day the UK has ever had, despite it being nothing of note in terms of cold.  This December despite not having any significant cold snaps, has actually not had much in the way of mild days (double figures); it has just been average or just above with often polar maritime air in the flows.

Next Christmas is looking snowy:drunk-emoji:

Edited by lassie23
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Good afternoon peeps 😊

Firstly a Very Merry Christmas 🎄 to everyone on here hope you all are having a fab time. It's been a great day here in Walthamstow blue skies since this morning and a great day for a walk.

looks as if the weather pattern is going according to my thoughts that I posted last week. High pressure to the south or southwest and   a very mild run up to the new year and maybe beyond. I have got a feeling later on in January things will hopefully be looking up for us coldies. Let's hope in the next few weeks temperatures start falling in Europe.

i will make this short today hope you all enjoy the rest of Christmas and get some time with loved ones. Hopefully in the new year it won't be the garden path we will be walking down.

best wishes

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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Well a what a turnaround on the cards from a rainfall/flooding point of view, now this is a marvellous GFS run for southern UK with it becoming much, much drier (finally, especially in South Wales & SW England) while NW Scotland becomes much, much wetter than its been this Autumn a good hint the jet is moving north taking it's lows with it and higher pressure is becoming more influential in the south 😮

Thanks Santa 👍🏻😊

image.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Well a what a turnaround on the cards from a rainfall/flooding point of view, now this is a marvellous GFS run for southern UK with it becoming much, much drier (finally, especially in South Wales & SW England) while NW Scotland becomes much, much wetter than its been this Autumn a good hint the jet is moving north taking it's lows with it and higher pressure is becoming more influential in the south 😮

Thanks Santa 👍🏻😊

image.jpeg

Yup, a consequence of the jet moving north -

NW Scotland looks in the firing line over the coming week or two..(If GFS is to be believed).

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Well a what a turnaround on the cards from a rainfall/flooding point of view, now this is a marvellous GFS run for southern UK with it becoming much, much drier (finally, especially in South Wales & SW England) while NW Scotland becomes much, much wetter than its been this Autumn a good hint the jet is moving north taking it's lows with it and higher pressure is becoming more influential in the south 😮

Thanks Santa 👍🏻😊

image.jpeg

Sadly the high pressure in the south is a healer in one way as far as the rain is concerned, but on the other hand it's the destroyer of our cold and has been the destroyer of many winters in the past. I just hope this pattern does not become stuck here for weeks to come otherwise what ever winter we have left will shorten as the days go past. Don't want it to come to a point when we are desperate to salvage any cold in only a few number of weeks that are left.

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Is this the day on which the FV3 becomes Our Saviour? Not yet. Patience young padawan!😇

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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PV in tatters in this runs FI, clueless or new trend? Tatters compared to earlier anyway 

1F824C40-B091-4EEC-ABD0-13C3E424D139.png

Edited by Ali1977
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24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

PV in tatters in this runs FI, clueless or new trend? Tatters compared to earlier anyway 

1F824C40-B091-4EEC-ABD0-13C3E424D139.png

The GFS is setting us up for a mental breakdown once again

There are signs of the strong SPV to down well into Troposphere

Which might bust our chances for atleast 3/4 of January  

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Well a big change UKMO 144 hrs brings a home grown high pressure to England,that will change 

things a great deal.Dry and possibly some sharp frosts with fog also possible temperatures on

the way down.Who knows where that high will drift to.Got to be worth Christmas glass of Chardonnay.

.

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The lack of posts sums it up dreadful runs. The garden will need the grass cutting and it will be too wet. Plus a few bushes that should have died off have carried on growing so will need a trim. Lala land indicated we may lose the very mild stuff in the new year for a day before the pattern likely resets itself.

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Ecm 216  only positive  vortex not so organised   hopefully heralds a pattern change into new year 

Edited by weirpig

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Fairly classic weather pattern good for people who are learning. I could try and cheer people up with CFS saying the high will drift north giving us an easterly 2nd half of Jan. Sadly that happening is as likely as me walking to the moon and back. 

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2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Brussels sprouts sums up the ECM

A lady called LBC, the other night (I kid ye not!) to say that eating Brussels sprouts leads to 'psychopathic tendencies'...You're nae Jack The Ripper, are you?🌪️:oops::oldgrin:

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

A lady called LBC, the other night (I kid ye not!) to say that eating Brussels sprouts leads to 'psychopathic tendencies'...You're nae Jack The Ripper, are you?🌪️:oops::oldgrin:

I tell you what we need Nick Ferrari to become prime minister.

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Being moaned at here by family for keep checking weather maps.... Give it a rest matt!! They just don't understand the buzz. Firstly UKMO and ECM at least shows some high pressure build and settled conditions.... I will take that over the dross we have endured for so long!! And secondly... That PV at last looks like it's coming under the cosh in the later frames.... Far less organised than recently.... So i will take this as a positive! In the words of yazz... The only was is up baby.. 🎄🍺

ECH1-216.gif

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Looks fairly dry and mild down here, from those charts. I'll take that, for now👍

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