Jump to content

Model output discussion - into Christmas


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

Posted Images

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

That's s horrid ECM ,look at the size of the high pressure building from the South, throughout the run.

Complete dross,most probably verify too.

Despite what others maybe saying with regards to possible glimmers of hope emerging by day 10 I’m with Sleety on this and can only describe the 12z Ecm as hideous.Those euro heights look as if there here to stay. Unlike the 0z Ecm the 12z would seem to suggest only a minor blip in the mild settled conditions come the new year with those robust southern heights fending off the worst of any wind and rain. I feel a netweather snoozefest coming on. Here’s hoping Mother Nature will conjure up a few pleasant surprises for us come 2020. In the meantime may I wish every contributor to this most intriguing of platforms a very happy and joyous Christmas full of merriment and love.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

For those of us old enough to remember winter 1988/89 tonight's ECM is very similar, as someone said earlier it's almost like the sub tropical high pressure belt has shifted northwards, I have rarely seen such awful synoptics even in the worst winters of the 2000's.

However, nothing is set in stone and things could change quickly, for our sanity let's hope so.

Merry Christmas to everyone on Netweather.

Andy

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Final one from me before Santa arrives. A glimmer of hope on the latest ECM ( Re Day 10 chart )  that real cold air mass moves from Northern Canada and sinks slowly SE into the Greenland Sea and seeps so close to Northern Scotland. Tap into that and serious cold to follow with -25c 850mb uppers heading towards Iceland.  Need to sink that Bartlet High or retrogress and let the Arctic front sink.  Happy Christmas to all Net weather folk. Beer time beckons.

C

ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

 there’s always hope on the ECM how ever the hope is at Day 10 and always has been so for this and last winter. I would like to thank you for all your updates this year and hopefully you will update us in the New Year to have a good Christmas and a happy and a joyous New Year

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

There is always next year, don't give up the hope keep digging the scene, curiosity killed the cat and it Snowed in the UK, miss the winters from back in the 1970s onwards they were brutal and proper, its a coming I can smell it..... MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE ?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

diabolical runs - no xmas presents

Awful , I just hope the models haven’t got a grasp of it and it changes for early next year!! 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry xmas.looks like Santa didn't have time to deliver a thermal nuclear device on the pv during his travels!!! Pretty dire output all tho Spain etc looks good for those who went south for there holidays.even the EC has dropped the Pacific heighths.anyway eat well,drink well and enjoy?

Edited by swfc
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning and a Happy Xmas & New Year to all.

Little to add to the previous comments, its not great!

The D16 GEFS mean continues to represent the ensembles to a high degree:

2144521104_gensnh-21-1-384(14).thumb.png.226dcac30c8c972c8b0df0f397dc9620.png

That doesn't come much worse than the above. Daily downgrades viz an euro trough so flat and zonal as the tPV circulates to our north. Sine wave pattern, so alternating dry and wet; colder or warmer, but brief snow chances for those favoured by the NW'ly flow. With the step away from the NW>SE flow scenario at least we shall get some very mild days down south (based on 0z GFS op and subject to variations).

Yesterday's ECM D10 Pacific Ridge is showing as a similar transient feature on the GFS op, sending a wedge of heights into the higher-lats and ECM does this at D8 further west, a transient ridge that send a wedge northwards and creates a high close to the Arctic, warming out the tPV, ECM -v- GFS:

121296235_ECH1-240(24).thumb.gif.4694c999cf42598d85aeacfafe68b1c5.gif65624694_gfsnh-0-240(15).thumb.png.a6f03e4580ac061f4c1ab6719d0f5265.png

A window of opportunity there, as it is apparent that the tPV is still open to persuasion with the right forcing? ATM all it does is force the tPV towards our side of the NH and really not helpful as currently modelled! So maybe mid-Jan onward's before we can interrupt this pattern?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Glosea bang on at the moment fir the winter!!high pressure to the south low pressure to the north!!

Yes, first half of winter (bare minimum).is a complete write off for the UK mate.

The 00z runs are among the worst i have seen in the Internet era ...(and there has been plenty of stiff competition over the years).

I didn't hold high hopes after Glosea picked up on the +NAO but its actually far worse than i could have ever imagined.

If anyone can offer some hope i'm all ears..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, first half of winter (bare minimum).is a complete write off for the UK mate.

The 00z runs are among the worst i have seen in the Internet era ...(and there has been plenty of stiff competition over the years).

I didn't hold high hopes after Glosea picked up on the +NAO but its actually far worse than i could have ever imagined.

If anyone can offer some hope i'm all ears..

 

December 2015 was worse!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like cold northwesterlies or northwesterly sourced airflow towards mid january to me, IF the suggested evolution continues and pressure drops across the uk further. Thats one heck of a vortex up north, driving very cold air into the north Atlantic mix.



 

814day.03.gif

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy Christmas to all my weather enthusiasts, hope you all have a great day and you just never no what the models will have in store in a few days, let’s face it, it can’t be much worse can it. 
One things for sure there’s some really cold air setting up to the north west so if we can happen to tap into a nw airstream in the next couple of weeks it could well get quite exciting.

?

Edited by markw2680
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Glosea bang on at the moment fir the winter!!high pressure to the south low pressure to the north!!

It's a shame Glosea wasn't as accurate last winter when it repeatedly predicted Northen Blocking!

Meanwhile I woke up this morning to find Uncle Barty sat in my chair, drinking my beer and eating mince pies!!

He informs me he might be staying a while..........

Andy

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...