Model output discussion - into Christmas

[LRD]

Just look at the size and extent of the high pressure to our south, SW and SE. It is huge and is now, almost, a semi-permanent feature that has given us very warm winters for years now (2009-2013 aside). But, also, generally, pretty warm summers too, especially down here in the south

Bearing this winter and last in mind, does the low solar output = cold winter theory need a serious re-visit? Or is it too early for that. I can't help thinking other changes in climate are over-riding all current theories

[jules216]

Merry Christmas to all European followers from mild Slovakia.Short cold snap on the way here from 26 to 30.12 and then our friend high pressure returns

[LRD]

Grim stuff. Wet or drizzly, varying degrees (pardon the pun) of mild and frost/fog free, let alone snow free. High pressure looking stable to the south, PV looking comfy in Greenland. Early October conditions

Merry Xmas from the weather gods!

Only 1 or 2 cold January's (IMBY) from 1988 onwards and now the first half of next month is being modelled in a way that gives us another insult of a 'winter' spell. I might need to find another winter hobby!

Merry Christmas to everyone and have a great 2020 whatever the weather

Edited December 24, 2019 by LRD

[Purga]

53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, topplers are possible into the NY..

 

The only NY cold likely is in NYC !

Will this lead to more explosive cyclogenesis powering up the jet for more of the same for us or could it push up a decent mid Atlantic ridge inducing a deep meridonal flow if the cold digs far enough south over the eastern seaboard??

[tight isobar]

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes.  We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout:    Anyway a very merry mild-merry Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

Edited December 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

I thought there was a chance that the models were playing catch up with height rises over Scandi but alas that wasn't to be. Not good for us coldies. However, I feel quite philosophical about it - at least we will be less inclined to be distracted by the weather models over Christmas. We can place our energies more into the people and things that matter most to us Merry Christmas everyone

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes.  We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout:    Anyway a very merry mild Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

Good summary

Desperate, desperate stuff. That's it for me until the weekend I think. Nothing is going to change quickly so, hopefully, by the 28th/29th something a bit more positive is being forecast

Have a good one everyone

Edited December 24, 2019 by LRD

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes.  We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout:    Anyway a very merry mild-merry Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

I’ve seen charts change at the flick of a switch. 2012-13 we was in a similar position to this. I remember it well. Endless raging PV showing right through towards the end of January, only then for a scandi high to appear in the mid timeframes. 

At least with the cold being locked in, if we see Northern blocking occur during late January into February, we should see some impressive cold released into the mid latitudes. 

[Mizzle]

So for most of us there'll be no lamppost watching during the festive countdown. Fortunately, NORAD satellites have picked up something else worth tracking

Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings to all fellow weather geeks and huge thanks to one and all for a great forum.

Official NORAD Santa Tracker

WWW.NORADSANTA.ORG

---

Follow Santa Claus as he makes his magical journey around the...

 

[snowray]

Some glimmer of hope there maybe on the 06z. 

Pity that the PV is getting it's act together just as the Scandi high is trying to set up. Greece and Turkey look likely to get the snow again, but Capracotta in Southern Italy might just miss out on its usual 6ft of snow this time round.

Anyway, at least we are saving on heating bills, makes up for November when I had the heating on high for much of the month. So lets see what turns up after the holidays, more than two months of Winter to go, and then the fun usually starts in March/April so lots to look forward to.

Have a lovely Christmas everyone, chill out and have a fab time, I will drink a toast tomorrow to all the fantastic people on netweather for good heath, prosperity, and a white outlook in the new year!

 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by snowray

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ve seen charts change at the flick of a switch. 2012-13 we was in a similar position to this. I remember it well. Endless raging PV showing right through towards the end of January, only then for a scandi high to appear in the mid timeframes. 

At least with the cold being locked in, if we see Northern blocking occur during late January into February, we should see some impressive cold released into the mid latitudes. 

I remember it well... @dramatic flip! Although it’s a rarity these days. And with dynamic such as this @500 geo out to 7 January it’s a poor prospect!

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes.  We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout:    Anyway a very merry mild Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

Thanks TI, I understood that completely!  Merry Christmas!

[SqueakheartLW]

Have a look at those 850hpa upper temps over Greenland, Canada and Alaska at +384 hours on the 06Z GFS run.

Don't think I've ever seen the -40C isotherm above those areas since I first saw these charts. Even Siberia is struggling to be cold on this run at the end

Look at the 850hpa anomalies that go along with this chart

Look at all the deep blue with 20C below normal in parts of Alaska, Greenland and Canada and all that red over mainland USA, Europe and Siberia with most of these areas 8 to 12C above normal at 850 hpa. Grim for cold lovers.

[Rocheydub]

Time for a break from the model watching. Happy Christmas to all fellow weather geeks! Hopefully we’ll get some eye candy in a few days time when I return. 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Time for a break from the model watching. Happy Christmas to all fellow weather geeks! Hopefully we’ll get some eye candy in a few days time when I return. 

Good idea and Merry Christmas all!  

Lets hope we come back in a few days to a WTF moment!

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Were this to verify, I wonder what the absolute maximum would be, and where...17C in NE Wales?

    

If it was sunny then maybe, but itll be rather overcast i think, mild southwesterlies at this time of the year usually are.

[phil nw.]

It doesn't look a bad Christmas day with the ridge just arriving on que so bright and chilly after some early frost and patchy fog.

It seems post Christmas we have a few mild days to come as the High settles over the near continent with a south westerly flow and fronts moving across the UK before a more pronounced westerly pattern kicks in later.

ECM Mean charts days 5/10

so temperatures closer to normal into the new month but with more frontal rain and showers to come.

Not a great outlook for Wintry weather that's for sure as current outputs are not showing any deep cold on offer in the next 10 days or so. There again the chances of transient polar maritime shots are always possible in a +ve NAO setup,especially if the core of the sub-tropical high positions further west sending the jet on a nw-se angle. 

At this stage i think it's far too early to be too downbeat about cold prospects further into January because of current modeling.We have seen ens.outputs switch over a few days before and i dare say they will again before long.

Anyway whatever the charts say i wish everyone all the very best for the holidays and hope you and your families have a great Christmas. 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

A very Merry Christmas to all members & lurkers here on NetWeather. I hope everyone enjoys there festive period

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Have a look at those 850hpa upper temps over Greenland, Canada and Alaska at +384 hours on the 06Z GFS run.

Don't think I've ever seen the -40C isotherm above those areas since I first saw these charts. Even Siberia is struggling to be cold on this run at the end

Look at the 850hpa anomalies that go along with this chart

Look at all the deep blue with 20C below normal in parts of Alaska, Greenland and Canada and all that red over mainland USA, Europe and Siberia with most of these areas 8 to 12C above normal at 850 hpa. Grim for cold lovers.

Check that swathe of  milder air up the US East Coast, Christmas in a balmy New York ...Having done Christmas in New York with 14 inches of snow, I think I know which I prefer. Well let's see what the New Year turns in, TBH, given the current model outlooks,it wont change, with only possible short scale colder spells possible as the NH train just keeps a comin... Anyway, good luck to all on here, may your forecast be what you wish for...

Edited December 24, 2019 by Dorsetbred

[Zak M]

Unfortunately, from looking at all of the models, there won't be any snow on Christmas Day.

However, some places (especially Scotland) might wake up to some morning frost tomorrow!

So technically, it is and isn't a white Christmas at the same time! 

Apart from that, I hope everyone has a splendid Christmas! 

[slater]

As expected and very well forecast 4 weeks ago, well above temperatures in the whole of Europe this Christmas....

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Mizzle said:

So for most of us there'll be no lamppost watching during the festive countdown. Fortunately, NORAD satellites have picked up something else worth tracking

Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings to all fellow weather geeks and huge thanks to one and all for a great forum.

Official NORAD Santa Tracker

WWW.NORADSANTA.ORG

---

Follow Santa Claus as he makes his magical journey around the...

 

Hopefully he doesn't nearly get shot down like what happened last year As for cold, best check back in 10 days from now as the current outputs sucks, like having noro virus at christmas. Merry Christmas 

Edited December 24, 2019 by lassie23

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More likely much later in Jan i would suggest, This SSW looks like it will fizzle out again so awaiting the next round of tropical forcing, wonder what @Catacol thinks.

I felt that the upcoming week would feature a block a bit further north, and I also thought we would get a bit more coherent MJO passage moving forward. The two are partly connected. The truth is that if we don’t get sufficient warm forcing on the vortex to create significant stress, in a year when the Pacific lacks a coherent signal and sub tropical high pressure is therefore likely to struggle to ridge much further north, then the chances of a significantly cold snap or spell take a hit. Obviously there is time for changes to occur, but right now the odds of winter blocking establishing in the right place look to me to be lengthening. In my own mind I’ve written off the first half of January already (to be fair I’d written off early January a good while back) but I’m beginning the think the latter half of January will also struggle to deliver much of significance. 
 

For February to give us a potent latter phase we need the +IOD to fade as fast as possible, the next MJO wave consequently to emerge with some force in late January, the eQBO to make a proper showing in January, SSTs to remain favourable (currently they are ok) and ideally a late January SSW. All are possible. A slice of luck as per Feb 2018 wouldn’t go amiss either. 
 

Happy Christmas to everyone on Netweather. Hard work at the moment with the seasonals refusing to budge and drivers not quite aligning, but what happened in 2018 signposts clearly how nothing in terms of weather can ever be taken for granted so let’s keep our glasses half full. And on that note - my empty wine glass is calling....

Edited December 24, 2019 by Catacol

[MR EXTREMES]

well we have gefs with a warming,

gfs has warming but not as much as gefs.

and the jma sees this to.

but the vortex is nothing but a monster this season.

cant see any warmings stopping it from dominating.

and zonal is an understatement.

but at times ok for scotland though.

 

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, LRD said:

Just look at the size and extent of the high pressure to our south, SW and SE. It is huge and is now, almost, a semi-permanent feature that has given us very warm winters for years now (2009-2013 aside). But, also, generally, pretty warm summers too, especially down here in the south

Bearing this winter and last in mind, does the low solar output = cold winter theory need a serious re-visit? Or is it too early for that. I can't help thinking other changes in climate are over-riding all current theories

Oh come on, semi permenant feature? If anything charts like this has been a rarity and it seems like too me the med(especially the western med) has been more stormy during that timeframe than perhaps in the past, I certainly seen less bartlett highs in the charts than not. 

Anyways, high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north is a perfectly normal weather pattern to witness, its one of those things, plenty time still for cold wintry weather to occur. 

In terms of how cloudy this set up will be, I think the most cloudy weather will be for more northern and western areas whereas further south and east could see more sunshine although any fog risk will scupper that. The highest temperatures will be the further northwards and westwards also, be interesting what temperatures will be reached if the fohen affect comes into play.