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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a decent day 10 chart 😂 

Screenshot_20191223-190152.png

I’d take that for the following week ⛷, hopefully a similar or better mean with the jet heading back south 

Edited by Ali1977

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Wondering where all the cold is. Well presently locked away to the North of Alaska with current lowest dam line of 474. The Alaska cold wave forecast to record 465 dam  or 4630 m heights at 500mb , that's about as extreme as it ever gets. At the same time most of Northern America and Europe  remain strangely mild. Weird that !

C

2019122319_us_ak.gif

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A band of rain pushing eastnortheast across the country tonight this mostly pretty light but becoming a little more organised as it heads East with some heavier bursts for central and Eastern areas later in the night but amounts of rain tending to be small for most with 1-3mm although locally 5-10mm small chance of a little snow on the highest ground of Northern England but mostly rain. Drier for Scotland with just a few showers these wintry on high ground, turning drier for southwest England and Northern Ireland later tonight fairly mild for southern parts but colder further north with a frost for central and northern Scotland in particular. 

Arpege.. 👇

12_11_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f7e03ce55af2f7703263e3bcdfd423a3.png

12_15_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.d34e77e5d4b8116f27e2942453f617e5.png

12_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.7604b2caa654674f9793c0daa3f3f1f3.png

Tomorrow the frontal rain moves away into the north sea with some brighter weather developing mild in the south with temperatures as high as 9-11c colder further north with low to mid single figures for northern England, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland although perhaps close to freezing for parts of northern Scotland for the whole day. 

During tomorrow morning into the afternoon showers will develop for Wales, central, southern and southwestern england these could be very heavy in one or two spots with parts of Wales likely to see 15-25mm of rain where showers persist for any length of time with one or two thunderstorms possible. Elsewhere mostly dry with just the odd shower with sunny spells.  It will become windy for most of England and Wales later tonight into much of tomorrow. 

Arome.. 👇

1655690063_UK_RAIN1_22(1).thumb.jpg.ba99d2140fe73c408a2a86bd6428bf7e.jpg

952944108_UK_RAIN1_26(2).thumb.jpg.edc95d46ff36301782fdd4eb5d9657cc.jpg

192108355_UK_RAIN1_29(3).thumb.jpg.6f5f0e31d753a416d86e91ad574e4ec9.jpg

Looking at boxing day more rain from a warm front and strong winds pushing into England and Wales in particular with perhaps some snow for a time for northern parts of England and Scotland before turning back to rain as milder air moves in.. The cold front from this low could become very slow moving and still be heavy for southern counties of England and Wales during boxing day night leading to another 10-20mm if this happens although it may clear away relatively quick but its more rain on saturated/flooded ground so needs watching. 

Gfs.. 👇

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After boxing day high pressure likely to become more dominant in particular for central and southern parts of the UK from 27th-1st January atleast with most rain kept towards northwest Scotland. Thereafter the Gfs shows a gradual transition back to wetter and windier weather after New years day but too far out for too much confidence on that but it will likely remain mild out to day 10.

Gfs..👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_102.thumb.jpg.7cdeff1105875a2cc1632688745874a5.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_132.thumb.jpg.d13a47a2fcf989866fc0e5904deb1ade.jpg

1189978298_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_210(3).thumb.jpg.4e134f871a79dc0d62a7c94074622638.jpg

599078271_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_240(3).thumb.jpg.92bca356fa0b1b6b239d19329232a204.jpg

Ecmwf.. 👇

350914866_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(8).thumb.jpg.6239c30d935b7a2c9398e6165eaf51a6.jpg

Gem.. 👇

1920677723_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(9).thumb.jpg.7e9eb4ebb4b02162e2362d5153c47da8.jpg

Hope you all have a good Christmas. 🙂🎄❄️🌧️

Edited by jordan smith

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I’m probably just overly happy having seen over half metre fall over the weekend at just 1150M here in the NW Alps. Took my chances early this year and booked a week at Xmas at a fairly low altitude. Based on a combination of expected ENSO and solar influences, I banked on a southerly jet and no stagnant Euro high. Risky but it paid off. ⛄️ 

My point being, I am still looking at the charts and I do think that with this southerly jet and some of the wave activity we’ve had/are having, we’ve actually been pretty unlucky. I don’t buy this sudden moribund shift to everything is doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I don’t see a tightly wound up vortex, a strong one yes, but not one that is impervious. The propensity to there being a southerly jet remains, there will be blips in that, but I suspect 2nd week in January could get interesting for parts of NW Europe. Hopefully the U.K. as well.

Anyway, here’s an interesting take from one of the GEFS members tonight, quite possibly one of the stranger looking evolutions I’ve seen, but weirdly sort of in line with my thoughts...

2BE0119F-A92B-4C41-B03F-258B68A9DD99.thumb.png.a144d984ad418abb30935ee3a647c749.png

5DAD26E5-0DEB-4772-865F-4AB1596001DB.thumb.png.e5292a61dda2aec2012fc361a8952be3.png

95E1C212-7B27-49C3-855D-16512827B0CE.thumb.png.f9a41d9b9e88cfaf983cbb39c80cb0c6.png

E1B83E78-656C-4553-A016-59B68623B013.thumb.png.09c681ffbaf3636ac076c797b51946fd.png

4CD4FD35-2988-4F12-8CE7-74D9640464D9.thumb.png.d3fd016dc62ab03b422fad0cd991cc0f.png

AA83AA12-6418-4209-9E96-2955CD1E65FC.thumb.png.95bf239f1047bf11baf73aa1a943c81d.png

 

 

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So just my opinion so here goes.i think mike's ridge has gone AWOL.barring boxing day it's looks fairly dry which is a huge bonus.heading towards the new year the PV looks to fire up to the north west.+Nao looks imminent with the subsequent wet and windy weather.hopefully it didn't last long and the ground can dry out.

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2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Positives.....

gfsnh-0-384-11.thumb.png.0bd6202c2e26c82fa984a1a07cbcffbe.png

It won't be mild,

southerly tracking jet,

No European blocking.

 

*awaits the 'negatives' posts....

Does there have to be any?....

I’ll give you one..... it’s 384 hours away 😉

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41 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I’m probably just overly happy having seen over half metre fall over the weekend at just 1150M here in the NW Alps. Took my chances early this year and booked a week at Xmas at a fairly low altitude. Based on a combination of expected ENSO and solar influences, I banked on a southerly jet and no stagnant Euro high. Risky but it paid off. ⛄️ 

My point being, I am still looking at the charts and I do think that with this southerly jet and some of the wave activity we’ve had/are having, we’ve actually been pretty unlucky. I don’t buy this sudden moribund shift to everything is doom and gloom as far as the eye can see. I don’t see a tightly wound up vortex, a strong one yes, but not one that is impervious. The propensity to there being a southerly jet remains, there will be blips in that, but I suspect 2nd week in January could get interesting for parts of NW Europe. Hopefully the U.K. as well.

Anyway, here’s an interesting take from one of the GEFS members tonight, quite possibly one of the stranger looking evolutions I’ve seen, but weirdly sort of in line with my thoughts...

2BE0119F-A92B-4C41-B03F-258B68A9DD99.thumb.png.a144d984ad418abb30935ee3a647c749.png

5DAD26E5-0DEB-4772-865F-4AB1596001DB.thumb.png.e5292a61dda2aec2012fc361a8952be3.png

95E1C212-7B27-49C3-855D-16512827B0CE.thumb.png.f9a41d9b9e88cfaf983cbb39c80cb0c6.png

E1B83E78-656C-4553-A016-59B68623B013.thumb.png.09c681ffbaf3636ac076c797b51946fd.png

4CD4FD35-2988-4F12-8CE7-74D9640464D9.thumb.png.d3fd016dc62ab03b422fad0cd991cc0f.png

AA83AA12-6418-4209-9E96-2955CD1E65FC.thumb.png.95bf239f1047bf11baf73aa1a943c81d.png

 

 

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Wondering where all the cold is. Well presently locked away to the North of Alaska with current lowest dam line of 474. The Alaska cold wave forecast to record 465 dam  or 4630 m heights at 500mb , that's about as extreme as it ever gets. At the same time most of Northern America and Europe  remain strangely mild. Weird that !

C

2019122319_us_ak.gif

Yes and not only the brutal cold but they're forecast to get around 500cm (16 feet!) of snow in the southern Alaskan mountains in early 2020!!

image.thumb.png.231c0d00958f02c9f20f7ad03b4f1195.png

Talk about green with envy.....👹🤢😍

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And still there this evening,there does seem to be a lot of scatter just after the 27th(that's only 4-5 days away),crazy!

temps,dew points and wind direction

1130959259_eps_pluim_tt_06260(2).thumb.png.eb435459a74ce59d5cf16510f826e7ad.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.ec170c7ca083b8e8db57e0f099e0d7bd.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.80d300278666c68da168f35dfdcbd9c6.png

i will give it until tomorrow to see how this develops or not

there isn't that much to talk about at the moment in regards to cold so i am signing out for a few days to do some late Chrimbo shopping tomorrow so...

ro.jpg.9fac4452c1f037edd23ecdfd0078f8ad.jpgi wish everyone a merry Chrismas.    download.jpg.3930bcb5848ae0cdeef7b8352f556316.jpg

                                                                               banner-1.thumb.gif.37ea8bbbbb0f8f594f03f4a6161c9c54.gif

I'm glad I'm not the only one who is seeing this. Thought I had gone loopy 😂. Good luck with the last minute shopping and a very merry Christmas to you too 🙂

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28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

 

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That evolution at the back end of week 2 remains entirely plausible .....

Based on what exactlyBA. Given the current fluidity in the models and non commitment by the meto etc and signals.just a question tia

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19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like the ecm control jumps to the scandi high at day 5.

Screenshot_20191223-210947.png

Ec control similar to the op 

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

 

Based on what exactlyBA. Given the current fluidity in the models and non commitment by the meto etc and signals.just a question tia

Recent Extended ens show a trough diving close to our east to be a reasonable evolution and possibly backed far enough west to cover the U.K. 

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Ah well one can only hope we wake up to miracle charts tomorrow!!mild and dry sums up the weather over the next 10 days!!zzzzzzzzzz!!!!!

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

I would suggest 2nd week of Jan at the absolute earliest for even a hope of cold Blue.

The pattern looks both repulsive and entrenched.

Of course there is always the prospect of some kind of short notice flip, but lets face it, that only happens when the boot is on the other foot so to speak.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comfort in the latest ec46 .......

Which takes us into February!  Signs need to change soon for hope of a back loaded winter......

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1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.png

a glimmer of hope for early Jan from the GFS18z perhaps

Cool rain at that timescale ...... away from the hilltops ....

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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I've seen weaker vortex  🙂

gfsnh-0-324.png

Could you get a stronger vortex than that?!

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