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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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Decent northerly coming in FI, and this looks like our next best shot of cold - into the New Year anyway 

D147A6F4-E802-4799-8146-3C32A36B3BD3.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

I think its that low recurving out past Norfolk with chilly weather from the ENE behind

Similar to Arpege this evening then Steve!
 

1B60B4F5-ED3E-4C41-9989-9CBCB9A3506F.png

Edited by bradythemole
Ah Shaky beat me to it above, but here’s the chart. 
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Just reviewing the pattern from Oct 3rd was almost identical

Actual chart below

FE834771-A2D4-4FC2-A41D-35FAA72E4C0D.thumb.png.5334dde8a12d8d7edcde7072a29435a4.png

Then in order UKMO Day 6 / GFS day 6 & ECM days 6 

For all the UKMO haters it was spot on. So I if it doesn't correct tonight to some form of undercut & recurve over the UK then perhaps it wont happen ( NB how hopeless the GFS was )

So for those who say UKMO day 6 doesnt beat the others ive picked one scenario > IE the one that resembles the currwnt output & UKMO was clearly the best. 

* NH statistics do not always count as we are referring to a small portion of the NH *
 

UKMO Spot on

CECD6276-3114-47F4-A765-E467F908417A.thumb.png.f7f6e7026a2878384a8a332b838d200b.png

GFS way to progressive & no ridge

8A3BEE0B-AEA4-44BC-B3BD-69BCEAB95A3B.thumb.png.549fbabee27c11b202d4cd56fe118a69.png

ECM over amplified

 

A030125F-0D6D-4FAA-B78D-B822FFC5D3FF.thumb.png.2cf96f557300731f989dd1d3dd0be4bd.png

ICON was runbish so expect that to correct South on the 12z

06F60B03-2C38-4CD6-96C5-BB21822E53AD.thumb.png.36bddccb494ec4a69297685d7ce0f79c.png

 

They all got on the pattern around day 5

 

i agree

just about sums things up spring uk, 

winter in the mediterranean.

Inkedgfs-0-192_LI.thumb.jpg.606c3a11f7ef1a0c5ed4318e051bf280.jpg .

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Epic straw clutch but some colder weather at 14 days on the GFS 12z!!! Can but hope ??

Even then although some heavy snow showers for Eastern Britain, it is very transient.

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Aperge is best of the bunch short term and is the only 12z to show the boxing’s day low slip SE (as Steve alluded to earlier) allowing heights to build behind. It would certainly be cold enough for snow on higher ground further north. GEM is almost there but the low goes east and quickly fills. ECM 00z is almost there,  so fingers crossed for the 12z. It’s still a long shot though in my opinion 

D9B06567-5358-418E-8168-6E8661E31120.png

C724B610-99A9-46C6-9D05-24B09BB0BE18.png

68C9E513-B3E3-4977-99FC-ADFFCE5A4117.png

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29 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Decent northerly coming in FI, and this looks like our next best shot of cold - into the New Year anyway 

D147A6F4-E802-4799-8146-3C32A36B3BD3.png

The ENS seem to follow the Op, obviously other options amongst them,  but PM air early next year - at the minute - seems the form horse. Good for higher ground and skiing, not that good for anything else!! 

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It isn't often that a global model comparison at T72 is appropriate.  But it is today, here GFS, ECM and UKMO at T72, big difference re that troublesome low:

image.thumb.jpg.a5a76a71fa2f6ea6bd1407fb3c6d7f03.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.79b36baf38e0a383a83384052d36ef82.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.528a899c847fa1907d1eb7bb0f81a4e4.jpg

Is this a big win for UKMO...time will tell.

Edit ECM siding with UKMO at T96:

image.thumb.jpg.bd6dc475e4975b194889e6ddc002e6d6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1b5fc9e1bf3ad4fc0bd072bac8725fe3.jpg

at the moment looks like a good call from @Steve Murr

Edited by Mike Poole
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12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It isn't often that a model comparison at T72 is appropriate.  But it is today, here GFS, ECM and UKMO at T72:

image.thumb.jpg.a5a76a71fa2f6ea6bd1407fb3c6d7f03.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.79b36baf38e0a383a83384052d36ef82.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.528a899c847fa1907d1eb7bb0f81a4e4.jpg

Is this a big win for UKMO...time will tell.

Big win it what way? Arnt they all similar going forward.tia

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Big win it what way? Arnt they all similar going forward.tia

Just superior modelling, I wasn't making a cold, not cold point. But I don't think they would be all similar if the issue in question was at T0.  UKMO solution would have a head start wrt ridging N...

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LOL- 168 EC

image.thumb.png.f155e105218d2f790aec19056df09a1b.png

We struggle for those 850s in summer and now we get them in late Dec..

image.thumb.png.36c373b224caf726739e00a48019c6eb.png

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just superior modelling, I wasn't making a cold, not cold point. But I don't think they would be all similar if the issue in question was at T0.  UKMO solution would have a head start wrt ridging N...

I do not know where that low will go, but it will not lead to cold whatever. But previous runs suggest the ECM route will flatten the ridge quicker than the GFS route, so not sure why the ECM track is a "win"?

ECM196458422_ECE1-168(2).thumb.gif.70b0a422afb0ed2a7cccdfb2932ff0a4.gifGFS1581433419_gfseu-0-168(1).thumb.png.af083ed215ae1599d499b44b91a164ad.png

Anyway the pattern has been nailed for days and we should be looking at D12 plus now for any hope of cold.

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EC 192 ..

If only those wretched lows spinning across the Atlantic would pause for just a second.

image.thumb.png.16648739a9103ee947e2a500c5734cd2.png

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

I do not know where that low will go, but it will not lead to cold whatever. But previous runs suggest the ECM route will flatten the ridge quicker than the GFS route, so not sure why the ECM track is a "win"?

ECM196458422_ECE1-168(2).thumb.gif.70b0a422afb0ed2a7cccdfb2932ff0a4.gifGFS1581433419_gfseu-0-168(1).thumb.png.af083ed215ae1599d499b44b91a164ad.png

Anyway the pattern has been nailed for days and we should be looking at D12 plus now for any hope of cold.

Never said the ECM track was a win!??  Good luck in D12 land.

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Now THATS more like it ECMT216:

image.thumb.jpg.f83667d9c3789b555eea282592406273.jpg

And this is precisely why the move to UKMO earlier in the run was  important, more amplified solution down the line.  T240 should look good!

Edit T240 chart:

image.thumb.jpg.9b2ef8fbc5e3b98c30c8047063d665e9.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Now THATS more like it ECMT216:

image.thumb.jpg.f83667d9c3789b555eea282592406273.jpg

Looks a toppler to me sadly, but looks about as good as we can hope for ATM..

?

 

 

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So no real respite from ECM, D8 cold front, D9 low to the north with trailing front and expect D10 topple so warm front afterwards.

anim_can1.gif

So average temps and more rain. Pretty dire for late December!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks a toppler to me sadly, but looks about as good as we can hope for ATM..

?

 

 

It's dry NW at 240 hrs which is the main thing.granted its a toppler

Edited by swfc

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6 minutes ago, IDO said:

So no real respite from ECM, D8 cold front, D9 low to the north with trailing front and expect D10 topple so warm front afterwards.

anim_can1.gif

So average temps and more rain. Pretty dire for late December!

Yes it's poor.that northern arm of the jet is relentless 

Edited by swfc
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Well, the hunt for cold goes on.

Perhaps the faintest glimmer day 8/9 on EC of some effort at Atlantic ridging but still way to much strength in the jet stream to allow for a break in the +NAO status quo..

Its getting to squeaky bum time for me personally - these set ups can literally eat away into Winter months rapidly and before you know it, its March.

I'm not suggesting it will happen, but i'm sure i'm not alone in feeling very deflated......again.

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes it's poor.that northern arm of the jet is relentlesd

Agree, without a Pacific ridge the pattern is too fluid so even the nascent mini-ridges are flattened. The upcoming UK static ridge cannot gain traction due to, as you say, that pesky jet. With upstream blocking this could have been much better and it also coincided with the Arctic high/wedge drifting the wrong side of the NH.

You could not make it up! Still plenty of time to go...

...now where have I heard that before?

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Well, the hunt for cold goes on.

Perhaps the faintest glimmer day 8/9 on EC of some effort at Atlantic ridging but still way to much strength in the jet stream to allow for a break in the +NAO status quo..

Its getting to squeaky bum time for me personally - these set ups can literally eat away into Winter months rapidly and before you know it, its March.

I'm not suggesting it will happen, but i'm sure i'm not alone in feeling very deflated......again.

Hi NWS, I wouldn't give up yet, firstly ECM is moving to UKMO at T96, so possible implements there, and a Jan SSW is definitely possible.  But, as I've said before on here, if you look at the winters since 2010, it is getting to the point where you need a SSW and one that breaks well for proper cold....still hoping for this winter!

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Very poor December for snow in Europe,most of us appart from Scandi will not have white Christmas,we are all in it together Im afraid.What was a day ago looking like a reasonable pattern for cold in central EU is turning in to a 2 day event. UKMO spotted the debacle first,ECMWF was going with its usual blocking nonsense and it finally backtracked tonight. What strikes me the most is the throughing activity west of Ireland that suddenly appears at 5 days out and just intensifies,on the other hand the throughing down to Europe from Scandi is downgraded by each output and we end up with -4C T850hPa for few days. This has happened already about 3 times since November. Azores high is quickly to the rescue of mild Europe once South Eastern high recendes,one or the other subtropical high oscilating to keep Europe firmly in mild weather. Disgusting

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UKMET still hinting at ESE / SE winds for Fri - Sat in S / SE UK not in line with general modelling, ?

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4 minutes ago, Purga said:

UKMET still hinting at ESE / SE winds for Fri - Sat in S / SE UK not in line with general modelling, ?

I think that's an area of low pressure pulling away.just seen the week a head link update.then showed high toppling and mild se winds moving in

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Nothing particularly of note in today's runs, apart from a few snowflakes in F.I.

prectypeuktopo-1.thumb.png.ae1730d0c03d752b5b88b473ba59093d.png

Still plenty of uncertainty, so lots of scope for change.

 

Edited by Mapantz
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