Model output discussion - into Christmas

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

That Boxing Day feature is a real oddity and has spoiled the party because without it, we would have been looking at a more pronounced high pressure scene throughout. Not sure what is causing it? - Answers please..

My take on it would be the low forms in the baroclinic zone on the boundary of the upper trough and the ridge and then filling as it tracks north east

[IDO]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

That Boxing Day feature is a real oddity and has spoiled the party because without it, we would have been looking at a more pronounced high pressure scene throughout. Not sure what is causing it? - Answers please..

Yes, that satellite low, a rhetorical question I am sure, but...

...it was what caused the models to bring us those more blocked charts and clearly the models in FI could not handle the dynamics of that feature. It appears the forces of the satellite low, carried by the jet, are enough to initially prevent the ridge pushing it north so it heads east/NE on the jet, warms out and the ridge builds in behind it preventing any sliders from the Atlantic trough. The split jet being the culprit for model chaos.

[knocker]

With ref. to my post above one should note the continuing action in the vicinity of this boundary which doesn't impact the UK because of the strengthening ridge

 

[bluearmy]

The Boxing Day low is the ‘messy’ solution first picked up by ICON last week ..... as I said at the time, it would likely not verify in the way shown so no point in over analysis so far out ...... and we still don’t know how much of the country will suffer a poor day from it 

 

[SMU]

Morning All

The forecast ( from me ) is that the ICON & UKMO tracks will all be wrong for deep boxing day low.

The track for me will be Ireland cutting SE out through Kent.

The exact same scenario happened what 8-10 weeks ago when everyone was seeing a near hurricane deep low touch ireland before moving ESE across the UK - I think if was the most North / East hurricane of all time before transitioning

Anyway look for corrections today > Note the ECM EPS have trended colder today

Forecast the GEFS will follow & on this occasion UKMO is incorrect.

 

Thanks

Edited December 22, 2019 by Steve Murr

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

The forecast ( from me ) is that the GFS / ICON & UKMO tracks will all be wrong for deep boxing day low.

The track for me will be Ireland cutting SE out through Kent.

The exact same scenario happened what 8-10 weeks ago when everyone was seeing a near hurricane deep low touch ireland before moving ESE across the UK - I think if was the most North / East hurricane of all time before transitioning

 

Anyway look for corrections today > Note the ECM EPS have trended colder today

Forecast the GFS will follow & on this occasion UKMO is incorrect.

 

Thanks

Latest gfs 06z goes with  ukmo solution deepens the low to the south west and then goes further north and west instead of undercutting!!it really is not looking good steve!!i give it to the 12zs but not holding out any positive outcome!!ecm could back down big time this evening!

[Anthony Burden]

The longer term weather looks good in regards High pressure being in charge,perhaps starting with average

to mild temperatures,then a replacement of pressure rise more to our north or northwest bringing colder 

temperatures.Not bad if this materialised.

[carinthian]

Wow, just look at the extent of those positive temp 850hPa/anoms to end the year.  Just makes you wonder where the cold is?  or even going to come from. Help !

 C

Edited December 22, 2019 by carinthian

[IDO]

The D8 GFS 06z and ECM 0z:

Pretty much on the same song sheet.

Flat on the 06z run D8-D10 (pre-NY) with a transient more organised tPV:

See where it takes us from there (different every run of late)?

[blizzard81]

A bit downbeat on here this morning. I feel very uplifted with the ecm to be honest. Better ridging into Scandi in the medium term. Have a look at this morning's ecm ens for debilt and compare them with the 12z ens from last night. The colder runs just post Xmas gaining traction and now the op and control joining that cold batch. A nice trend and at relatively short notice which is always a good sign. It's not all doom and gloom peeps. 

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A bit downbeat on here this morning. I feel very uplifted with the ecm to be honest. Better ridging into Scandi in the medium term. Have a look at this morning's ecm ens for debilt and compare them with the 12z ens from last night. The colder runs just post Xmas gaining traction and now the op and control joining that cold batch. A nice trend and at relatively short notice which is always a good sign. It's not all doom and gloom peeps. 

 

yes why is it so quiet the ecm was on a verge of a colder outlook,much chopping and changing to come

[E17boy]

Morning peeps

Hope everyone is well a brighter start to the day here in Walthamstow now that the overnight front has pushed away.

Nothing this morning from the outputs has changed my thoughts from my post yesterday. I still don't think we are going to get any really cold weather yet. The lead up to new year and maybe beyond could get us stuck in this southwesterly or westerly pattern as my thoughts in the past two days have been (unless that is if a big if we get a sudden flip). How long this pattern will last who knows and it all depends on the positioning of the high.

i also emphasised that for us to get cold the source from where it comes from has to be very cold. All eyes are on Europe or the north as this is the direction we would be looking at. I did say that so far European temperatures have been milder than what they should be which is no good for us. I have just looked At the predicted temperatures for Moscow in the coming week or so and there now seems to be a trend downward. Temperatures have been recently hovering at 1 or 2 degrees ( which is no cold to write home about). However in the coming week they are going down to -4 or so which is a starter. The reason why I am putting so much importance on this is if we get s favourable setup happening in the coming days and that cold extends westward then How cold the source is matters. Anyway this is just one part I will keep track of is Europe going to go cold in the coming days?? 

There is not much else to add this morning except I know deep down us coldies are frustrated and a more colder Christmas would have been ideal. However it is not unusual, as a lot of our proper cold often starts in January or even February. Time is still on our side so that's one good factor and I am sure there will be plenty of up and down moments still to come as we head into the new year. It's a patience game let's get this euro slug done with and out the way and then maybe we can look at a new horizon. 

The search for our snow will always go on we are not giving up yet we are going to win you. Let this message be loud and clear to Mr Euro slug, Mr Southwesterly and Mr Westerly. 

Fingers crossed 

OUR SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND WILL CONTINUE 

wishing you all a great Sunday

all the best regards

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

yes why is it so quiet the ecm was on a verge of a colder outlook,much chopping and changing to come

That is De Bilt and the colder part of the run is when the ridge falls and colder air dives south for 1-3 days:

  

For London (above) relatively average mean for next 15-days, the ECM op on the colder side of how the Azores high/ridge sits. Even the colder runs barely get below 0c night temps. Looking at the rain graph for London (little), I suspect that this ECM run will be superseded synoptic wise very quickly if GFS  in FI is any guide (NW to SE flow).

[carinthian]

14 hours ago, carinthian said:

Interesting UKMO extended at 168t. Completely different to what the other models are showing. Not sure how to view this with limited synoptic scope but seems to show retrogression of the ridge and cutting off any Tm airmass into the British Isles. A chink of hope !

C

Although UKMO drops that feature above , the latest GFS run now develops a short wave feature in the same time scale to the North of Scotland and run towards Southern Scandinavia to veer the flow for a time anyway ( see below gfs chart at 144t. Just goes to show , nothing certain at the moment even with-in the 96 to 144t time span. Onward to the next set of runs. We can only hope to get out of this dismal December set up some how ! Keep the faith cold lover !

C

Edited December 22, 2019 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

yes why is it so quiet the ecm was on a verge of a colder outlook,much chopping and changing to come

Ecm changed back again this morning to a colder extended outlook with scandi troughs bringing nor’westers as the Atlantic ridge ebbs and flows ..... 

[Tim Bland]

GFS FI?...in a word..Unsettled...we are under there somewhere  

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

That is De Bilt and the colder part of the run is when the ridge falls and colder air dives south for 1-3 days:

  

For London (above) relatively average mean for next 15-days, the ECM op on the colder side of how the Azores high/ridge sits. Even the colder runs barely get below 0c night temps. Looking at the rain graph for London (little), I suspect that this ECM run will be superseded synoptic wise very quickly if GFS  in FI is any guide (NW to SE flow).

There are two ways of looking at it I suppose. The way I look at it is that there are far more colder runs for debilt this morning in the medium term compared to last night's. This means that the ridge into Scandi is more pronounced than previous suites. This is very positive - if that trend continues of course. 

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm changed back again this morning to a colder extended outlook with scandi troughs bringing nor’westers as the Atlantic ridge ebbs and flows ..... 

On that note, maybe some sort of consensus between ecm and the gfs in the extended. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes the 6z GEFS have followed suit then if the EPS are showing NW PM air.

[Purga]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

The forecast ( from me ) is that the ICON & UKMO tracks will all be wrong for deep boxing day low.

The track for me will be Ireland cutting SE out through Kent.

The exact same scenario happened what 8-10 weeks ago when everyone was seeing a near hurricane deep low touch ireland before moving ESE across the UK - I think if was the most North / East hurricane of all time before transitioning

Anyway look for corrections today > Note the ECM EPS have trended colder today

Forecast the GEFS will follow & on this occasion UKMO is incorrect.

 

Thanks

An interesting point Steve & I've noticed on my local (Sussex) Met Office wind forecast it has subtly changed for Friday & Saturday this coming week to be between NE and ESE (sometimes E). The temps are also shown to decrease after Christmas Day from 10C max to 8C max. This is at odds with the UKMO 00z run for sure which implies a S to SW drift.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Purga

[Chesil View]

Perturbation 10 on the 06z is a fantastic run. Most people would call it a massive outlier. I prefer the phrase 'ahead of the game trendsetter' lol.  Check it out snow lovers.

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There are two ways of looking at it I suppose. The way I look at it is that there are far more colder runs for debilt this morning in the medium term compared to last night's. This means that the ridge into Scandi is more pronounced than previous suites. This is very positive - if that trend continues of course. 

Yes, but behind those temps is the underlying pattern, a trough or the ebb and flow of a more zonal pattern, and I would expect nothing exceptional, and TBH the drop highlighted is just taking us closer to seasonal norms:

GFS De Bilt>>> 

For most of the UK that is a wet and cool pattern and I would prefer settled high than that again after the washouts of recent weeks. No sign of easterly, where De Bilt is more instructive, or any northern blocking sadly.

[Snow phall]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Wow, just look at the extent of those positive temp 850hPa/anoms to end the year.  Just makes you wonder where the cold is?  or even going to come from. Help !

 C

That looks worse than Star wars 9 and Cats combined.

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

The forecast ( from me ) is that the ICON & UKMO tracks will all be wrong for deep boxing day low.

The track for me will be Ireland cutting SE out through Kent.

The exact same scenario happened what 8-10 weeks ago when everyone was seeing a near hurricane deep low touch ireland before moving ESE across the UK - I think if was the most North / East hurricane of all time before transitioning

Anyway look for corrections today > Note the ECM EPS have trended colder today

Forecast the GEFS will follow & on this occasion UKMO is incorrect.

 

Thanks

GEFS look fairly similar to the op run to me and most are fairly close to the ICON and UKMO in making very little of the Boxing Day low. I’m hoping you are right though as that low will bring snow for me in the Alps if it goes SE and stays intact for long enough 

[johnholmes]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There are two ways of looking at it I suppose. The way I look at it is that there are far more colder runs for debilt this morning in the medium term compared to last night's. This means that the ridge into Scandi is more pronounced than previous suites. This is very positive - if that trend continues of course. 

I ahve to say 881 that your view is not really what meteorology would suggest if we look at the larger scale pattern. Later charts from EC show this occurring so there is not build of surface pressure over Scandinavia, and by T 240 the EC charts shows the surface high as back just SW of the UK.

I can't say that the 500 mb predicted flow exactly shows this, it does not, with EC-GFS showing differing ideas, see below. The NOAA version is much along the idea shown on the surface EC 240 h, and this model is often a more accurate 500 mb chart.

But you might be right but I would support the NOAA predicted 500 mb more than the others.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

To me for cold seekers there is little in the 6-14 day upper air outlooks that suggests any deep cold developing from 'any' direction at the moment.

I do have an interest in this as I go on my annual winter 10 days to the Jungfrau region in Switzerland a week or after the current 10-14 day outlook extends!