Model output discussion - into Christmas

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Good grief!     

Could be a good time for worrying about 'encroachment' again!

Looks good growing weather on that chart!!!!

[swfc]

Thought it wasn't possible but the 6z GFS is possibly worse in fi

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Thought it wasn't possible but the 6z GFS is possibly worse is fi

Yes, on this run, look upstream, a train of HP cells flattening out the pattern, massaging the tPV so the core vortex is back home and a north/south split scenario UK wise:

Clearly all JFF as this will change many times in the next few days (hopefully anyway!).

Edited December 21, 2019 by IDO

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, on this run, look upstream, a train of HP cells flattening out the pattern, massaging the tPV so the core vortex is back home and a north/south split scenario UK wise:

Clearly all JFF as this will change many times in the next few days (hopefully anyway!).

Indeed, IDO...I wonder what the foehn effect will do...?

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

20 minutes ago, swfc said:

Thought it wasn't possible but the 6z GFS is possibly worse in fi

A full on Raging Siberian Easterly and Blizzards all round then.

[carinthian]

17 minutes ago, swfc said:

Thought it wasn't possible but the 6z GFS is possibly worse in fi

Quite a switch from the latest UKMO ( re Boxing Day ) More rain followed by sludge pump mildness as indicated by the main models as well. Horrid winter charts for many cold lovers. Lets see if tonights runs give some hope ? Big flip needed. 

C

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

A full on Raging Siberian Easterly and Blizzards all round then.

Maybe

[legritter]

Hi Gang, last nights GFS certainly put me to sleep with lovely dreams of Arctic mayhem, and snow by the bucket. Todays runs ,well i am only looking at  the most out to 168 hrs ,as i expect plenty of twists as there is a lot going on as i expect a major change to the northern hemisphere pattern come new year ,yes new year gang .not only can i feel it in my water but the way the charts are changing tells me something is LURKING , my fridge magnet of Michael fish fell off  overnight , the last time this happened the beast turned up ,cheers gang STEllas on me .

 

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Quite a switch from the latest UKMO ( re Boxing Day ) More rain followed by sludge pump mildness as indicated by the main models as well. Horrid winter charts for many cold lovers. Lets see if tonights runs give some hope ? Big flip needed. 

C

What's your take or outlook carinthian.tia

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, fromey said:

Is this good??

Who cares? We've entered a new age where the weather completely ignores these MJO/solar cycle etc background signals and just continues its endless Atlantic low/permanent southwest euro high pressure onslaught.

[Dorsetbred]

54 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Well, looking at this, rather than "Let's get the cold in and the snow will follow", I think we are at "Let's get the warmth in then the gardening will follow"...Seems fair set to continue on the basis of recent models..

[swfc]

Gefs up to the 168hr mark on GFS not really baring gifts

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Who cares? We've entered a new age where the weather completely ignores these MJO/solar cycle etc background signals and just continues its endless Atlantic low/permanent southwest euro high pressure onslaught.

Yes i don't think the new order can be ignored any longer.

Its fast destroying my interest now.

I expect the Atlantic to slow down by late Feb into March, you can almost set a clock to it.

There is zero chance of any cold uppers this side of the new year IMO , once the +NAO pattern sets in you can, 75% of the time, write off literally weeks.

The EC 00z and GFS6Z are just about as bad as it gets.

No sign whatsoever of the low heights to the NW relenting, so much for solar mimimum.

Edited December 21, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, LRD said:

Oh my gawd...

Post-Christmas 'heatwave' is still on. Surely we're looking at 15c or 16c in the sheltered NE of Scotland and 13cs and 14cs more widely

 

Looks fab, after the wet and cold of last couple of months, truly. I'd rather have the above than 7c and rain. No snow and cold? Then next best is weather showing in that chart.

[carinthian]

41 minutes ago, swfc said:

What's your take or outlook carinthian.tia

Hi swfc, models very volatile to change at the moment,so would view longer term charts with a pinch of salt. Even charts at 120t vary with the positioning of the Boxing Day Low . However, seems not much prospect for cold to tap into but history shows how quickly things can flip from mild to cold and usually not forecast that far in advance. I remain hopeful for change for much drier conditions between Christmas and New Year. That forecast Bartlet can retrogress NW which would be much better especially for us in the Eastern Alps who are suffering weeks on end of Fohn conditions. So overall , not surprised to see big changes in the out -puts over the coming few days.

C

Edited December 21, 2019 by carinthian

[swfc]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i don't think the new order can be ignored any longer.

Its fast destroying my interest now.

I expect the Atlantic to slow down by late Feb into March, you can almost set a clock to it.

There is zero chance of any cold uppers this side of the new year IMO , once the +NAO pattern sets in you can, 75% of the time, write off literally weeks.

The EC 00z and GFS6Z are just about as bad as it gets.

No sign whatsoever of the low heights to the NW relenting, so much for solar mimimum.

Yes NW there does seem to be an overriding factor to the favourable option to a colder or an average winter .given the background signals solar min, moving towards an easterly qbo etc the mute button seems to be on.GW? It's a big ask to move them but those insipid heighths to the south look like a semi permanent feature ie Azores high.was hoping for an extended dry spell but I think that ship has sailed which we may need shortly

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by swfc

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i don't think the new order can be ignored any longer.

Its fast destroying my interest now.

I expect the Atlantic to slow down by late Feb into March, you can almost set a clock to it.

There is zero chance of any cold uppers this side of the new year IMO , once the +NAO pattern sets in you can, 75% of the time, write off literally weeks.

The EC 00z and GFS6Z are just about as bad as it gets.

No sign whatsoever of the low heights to the NW relenting, so much for solar mimimum.

Even that isn't a given. Just look at the last few years, especially last year. March was more active in the Atlantic than the entire winter.

Into the new year, if wintry synoptics are so hard to come by, I'll be looking for charts like these. A UK based high would not be mild for long, even if a Tm flow has preceded its development. Anything to dry the country out. A very similar thing happened in January last year. Even better if it would lead on to something along the lines of the latter frame... (all for fun of course given these are from the Conjecture Forecasting System model).

 

[West is Best]

Despair not at the 6z Operational ...

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Well after last night's 18z I thought we had another chance of something more cold. But looked this morning and we have a agreement now with a southerly wind developing just after boxing day etc. so any signs from last night seem to have disappeared and only one member off the ens goes to - 10 850hp.like many have said before me big flip need now for cold to develope. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Despair not at the 6z Operational ...

Only 1 goes to - 10 850hpa pass the prozac

[bobbydog]

Just to reiterate what Carinthian said regarding model volatility and of course the fickle nature of the weather itself, here's a snapshot of the 00z-

It shows a countrywide snow event lasting a few days. However unlikely it is, it at very least shows we are not necessarily stuck in a mild rut for the rest of winter.

Keep the faith- things can and do change at very short notice....

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i don't think the new order can be ignored any longer.

Its fast destroying my interest now.

I expect the Atlantic to slow down by late Feb into March, you can almost set a clock to it.

There is zero chance of any cold uppers this side of the new year IMO , once the +NAO pattern sets in you can, 75% of the time, write off literally weeks.

The EC 00z and GFS6Z are just about as bad as it gets.

No sign whatsoever of the low heights to the NW relenting, so much for solar mimimum.

Not sure what is meant by the New Order? Are they not a band? 

Trying to lighten the mood in here today - I fully anticipated much gloom and misery today given the model output..

Yes the models this morning are not painting a preety picture for anyone hoping for imminent cold and snow to arrive this side of 2019.

We've been here so many times before at this stage in the winter, indeed preety much the same script for 9 years consecutive. The events of 2013 and 2018 do give us hope though that things do change - though granted the changes were brought about by events in the Stratosphere. 

In my view, winter rarely gets going until after christmas, and traditionally the chance of cold and snow increases as we move further into winter proper, as has been the case in the last 9 years - yes some years have been devoid of much of these, but it has surfaced at times even if for just short periods.

As said I will be looking at the models tomorrow, and then taking a break from them until just before new year, to see how the start of 2020 might pan out.

 

[West is Best]

10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Well after last night's 18z I thought we had another chance of something more cold. But looked this morning and we have a agreement now with a southerly wind developing just after boxing day etc. so any signs from last night seem to have disappeared and only one member off the ens goes to - 10 850hp.like many have said before me big flip need now for cold to develope. 

Not even the ensembles within themselves agree. Massive scatter and some significant colder members, with the operational right at the maximum extreme.

So let's ditch the despair please folks

[swfc]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Not even the ensembles within themselves agree. Massive scatter and some significant colder members, with the operational right at the maximum extreme.

So let's ditch the despair please folks

I think there was one in the gefs 6z?wouldn't call it despair"it's weather" disappointment and realism maybe looking at the output which is what folk do on here.all power to you tho

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think there was one in the gefs 6z?wouldn't call it despair"it's weather" disappointment and realism maybe looking at the output which is what folk do on here.all power to you tho

Actually swfc. There are 6 cold runs that take the uppers for London down between minus 5 and minus 10 as we head into January . That's nigh on a third of the enembles