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Model output discussion - into Christmas


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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And then to cap it all, we have this GFS T360 in the strat:

image.thumb.jpg.f4666e0c11d61b8b8b1ed638ec6330c6.jpg

So we have multiple routes to cold, in the current model predictions, and a stratospheric warming event that looks to becoming more likely day by day...

Edit: T384 even better:

image.thumb.jpg.c6569b726efe5f46b69a56f579f93c07.jpg

Good final chart to reflect those strat charts,even though the models won't pick those effects up until a later date.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.99d441dad129a7814e61d9c8c0d8fe37.png

 

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Hi gang, sorry I'm not posting at the moment, my dad is seriously ill so I'm sure you will understand. Looking at the latest models, nothing particularly wintry on offer but we all know that can soon

Right folks, due to family commitments and a lot of travelling, that's me over and out till the end of the year... So i would just like to wish each and everyone of you a fabulous Christmas, to those

Hi  We all hear ya - its horrible when your a traditional winter weather lover hoping for snow - especially when the kids are desperate for it as well. Thats what makes the chase so exciting

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Looking at the UKMO which I really am rating above all models at present, shows cold air advection through scandi 120 hrs, no surprise therefore to see other models suggesting more of a robust high inflating further north around same timeframe over christmas - 18z is a very plausible evolution in this respect with the shortwave low taken out of the equation.

UKMO does currently show the shortwave feature, but a much shallower affair than ECM and GFS. UKMO outperformed GFS and ECM last week at the crucial 120 hr timeframe. If the UKMO removes the feature in tomorrow's runs then a more longer blocked outlook certainly on the cards. It will be the model I will be looking at tomorrow above the ECM at the crucial 96-120 hr timeframe.

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1 hour ago, weatherguy said:

/clip

What we know for certain is that there is an opportunity for a ridge forming roughly around the UK/Iceland/Scandi sector around the 27th DecThe models cannot agree on the exact setup, but none of the big 3 are showing a scenario where the Atlantic is held at bay, or undercuts.  

Ever the optimist, I will be looking for any signs that this period is to be modelled more favourably for us. 

image.thumb.png.655068631eb192bc28c7f146c5bfccda.png

In the pub run we trust! ?

The secondary low manages the undercut, and then the fun and games begin!  Can see this becoming a bit of a nightmare to model correctly and we'll be seeing elation and despair in equal measure here over the next few days...Here's to hoping elation wins out.

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi Steve, where do you view these? Can’t find them on Meteociel ?

Click on gefs ensemble,click panel gefs,they should pop up there,for graph click diagrams.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Lots of very good PTBs not all of a sudden ! Watch that ENS graph !

PTBs 4,5,8,11 ? ,12,13,16,

All develop good blocks ?

A major shift this eve.

 

still a long way to go Steve but continues to show the struggles the models have with blocking high pressure I would say at least 7/8 times out of 10 they struggle with the strength and usually you can add a few days on to initial breakdown attempts.

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

still a long way to go Steve but continues to show the struggles the models have with blocking high pressure I would say at least 7/8 times out of 10 they struggle with the strength and usually you can add a few days on to initial breakdown attempts.

 

Whats good is all the halfway houses turn into better Easterlies as well

PTB 19 / 20 as good examples

 

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12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Tim as stated I don’t disregard the 18z  but as you can see by comments a lot do,a lot of these

charts try to form a weather pattern and it becomes less sure of the outcome as 144 hrs is regarded 

as the gold card for reliability.

I think most members  are dubious of anything past day 5 as their is no consistency.  I was more questioning your referral to disregarding it just because it was the 18z / “pub run” when the stats show it is as reliable as the 12z / 00z and more reliable than the 06z which generally has less flight data available.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Heres the swing shown in the numbers

counting down from a 2 day window 156-204 12z then 150 -198 18z

5FAD9A35-9B19-4F20-9676-B535AD5C7F10.thumb.jpeg.f8c9c5aa72ee8230f96fd53f4a441737.jpeg56E09FD4-AE65-4B0E-9540-97F8F700EE4F.thumb.jpeg.fbc574cf327aa9246e958bb5becc9eca.jpeg

A direct question. Do you trust the GFS 18z and it's suite? The intruiging thing about this situation is that the crucial changes are in the 5 day timeframe. Does this add credence I wonder?

 

 

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First bit of interest of the season for me tonight ?. Inside 10 days and enough GEFS backing to warrant a second look. Probably be gone in the morning but still! 

I wonder if were headed for a mid lat high (maybe UK based?) but lets see what the morning runs bring. As we all know the 00Z tends to be the hangover after the pub run ?

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3 hours ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Maybe clutching at straws but icon seems a bit better with less of a boxing day storm, Everything also seems a bit further west with higher pressure to our North West Big changes at only day 5 which can only mean positive things given the current state of the models!

12z vs 18z

image.thumb.png.200e772357ca74d964058664a583ed62.pngimage.thumb.png.9776f926479e055a0c8c9b4fedab7387.png

 positive it may be however with such model vulnerable vulnerability I wouldn’t take even five days as gospel at this moment in time

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24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Just shows you that currently FL is about 120 hours,hope the models firm up to a colder outlook, the next 24 hours or so.

Some big early morning runs coming up.

what time do the GFS Oz etc come out ?tia

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14 minutes ago, swfc said:

what time do the GFS Oz etc come out ?tia

About 350am and ukmet about the same time ,icon is about 3 15 am I think,can we have a decent morning set,for a change,they been poor recently apart from ukmo.

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12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

About 350am and ukmet about the same time ,icon is about 3 15 am I think,can we have a decent morning set,for a change,they been poor recently apart from ukmo.

Thanks.imo I think any heighths will be over the UK threw xmas.cant see an easterly but staying seasonal and mostly dry.beyond that who knows?

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Morning-

Im up & off doing some work this morning & ive got up with a positive vibe.

The 18z + MEAN + ICON / JMA & 18z ECM were all much better in a swing towards cold however we need to continue that process today - With such a relative short window here a full swing to cold will unlikely then swing back to mild as the transition is at 96-120.

Thanks

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