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Model output discussion - into Christmas

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And then to cap it all, we have this GFS T360 in the strat:

image.thumb.jpg.f4666e0c11d61b8b8b1ed638ec6330c6.jpg

So we have multiple routes to cold, in the current model predictions, and a stratospheric warming event that looks to becoming more likely day by day...

Edit: T384 even better:

image.thumb.jpg.c6569b726efe5f46b69a56f579f93c07.jpg

Good final chart to reflect those strat charts,even though the models won't pick those effects up until a later date.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.99d441dad129a7814e61d9c8c0d8fe37.png

 

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Looking at the UKMO which I really am rating above all models at present, shows cold air advection through scandi 120 hrs, no surprise therefore to see other models suggesting more of a robust high inflating further north around same timeframe over christmas - 18z is a very plausible evolution in this respect with the shortwave low taken out of the equation.

UKMO does currently show the shortwave feature, but a much shallower affair than ECM and GFS. UKMO outperformed GFS and ECM last week at the crucial 120 hr timeframe. If the UKMO removes the feature in tomorrow's runs then a more longer blocked outlook certainly on the cards. It will be the model I will be looking at tomorrow above the ECM at the crucial 96-120 hr timeframe.

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Is it just me or does this GFS flip remind anyone else of January earlier this year where the models fliped from that easterly like 3-4 days before ?

Could this be a flip but in our favour this time

Lets Hope so!

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1 hour ago, weatherguy said:

/clip

What we know for certain is that there is an opportunity for a ridge forming roughly around the UK/Iceland/Scandi sector around the 27th DecThe models cannot agree on the exact setup, but none of the big 3 are showing a scenario where the Atlantic is held at bay, or undercuts.  

Ever the optimist, I will be looking for any signs that this period is to be modelled more favourably for us. 

image.thumb.png.655068631eb192bc28c7f146c5bfccda.png

In the pub run we trust! 😂

The secondary low manages the undercut, and then the fun and games begin!  Can see this becoming a bit of a nightmare to model correctly and we'll be seeing elation and despair in equal measure here over the next few days...Here's to hoping elation wins out.

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi Steve, where do you view these? Can’t find them on Meteociel ?

Click on gefs ensemble,click panel gefs,they should pop up there,for graph click diagrams.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Nice to see the PV over Scandanavia in that final frame, though would be nice to have high pressure building over NE Canada as well.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Lots of very good PTBs not all of a sudden ! Watch that ENS graph !

PTBs 4,5,8,11 😮 ,12,13,16,

All develop good blocks 🙂

A major shift this eve.

 

still a long way to go Steve but continues to show the struggles the models have with blocking high pressure I would say at least 7/8 times out of 10 they struggle with the strength and usually you can add a few days on to initial breakdown attempts.

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Hi Tim as stated I don’t disregard the 18z  but as you can see by comments a lot do,a lot of these

charts try to form a weather pattern and it becomes less sure of the outcome as 144 hrs is regarded 

as the gold card for reliability.

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

still a long way to go Steve but continues to show the struggles the models have with blocking high pressure I would say at least 7/8 times out of 10 they struggle with the strength and usually you can add a few days on to initial breakdown attempts.

 

Whats good is all the halfway houses turn into better Easterlies as well

PTB 19 / 20 as good examples

 

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This is a big shift on the gfs/control tonight in the latter stages re:-retrogression into Greenland,lets see where they sit in the ens.

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.f4f6f69e13b9b5b1d43d75f871a4a56d.pnggensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.3e447db3d26c122868fa17c262b91fb9.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Well!!

would you Adam and Eve it...

graphe3_1000_260_29___.thumb.png.b7064dcf74fab6991e2fc9e61c51901e.png

gfs is a cold outlier in the short term,TREND SETTER😜

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12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Tim as stated I don’t disregard the 18z  but as you can see by comments a lot do,a lot of these

charts try to form a weather pattern and it becomes less sure of the outcome as 144 hrs is regarded 

as the gold card for reliability.

I think most members  are dubious of anything past day 5 as their is no consistency.  I was more questioning your referral to disregarding it just because it was the 18z / “pub run” when the stats show it is as reliable as the 12z / 00z and more reliable than the 06z which generally has less flight data available.

Edited by Tim Bland

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Whats good is all the halfway houses turn into better Easterlies as well

PTB 19 / 20 as good examples

 

Take your pick :oldlaugh: All for a bit of Christmas fun of course :drunk-emoji:anim_vme7.thumb.gif.f3f1dd70db6f96b87663b7325c8129aa.gif anim_kte4.thumb.gif.2a8ab482a9e02ec6986f3f8b23705394.gif anim_mre6.thumb.gif.81d69bb71119ddb5e83ee5daef5b7720.gif  anim_sst9.thumb.gif.74fbc4872ceb370f89a5595e81bd4de7.gif 

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Heres the swing shown in the numbers

counting down from a 2 day window 156-204 12z then 150 -198 18z

5FAD9A35-9B19-4F20-9676-B535AD5C7F10.thumb.jpeg.f8c9c5aa72ee8230f96fd53f4a441737.jpeg56E09FD4-AE65-4B0E-9540-97F8F700EE4F.thumb.jpeg.fbc574cf327aa9246e958bb5becc9eca.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Heres the swing shown in the numbers

counting down from a 2 day window 156-204 12z then 150 -198 18z

5FAD9A35-9B19-4F20-9676-B535AD5C7F10.thumb.jpeg.f8c9c5aa72ee8230f96fd53f4a441737.jpeg56E09FD4-AE65-4B0E-9540-97F8F700EE4F.thumb.jpeg.fbc574cf327aa9246e958bb5becc9eca.jpeg

That's a 6 hr window Steve!

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Heres the swing shown in the numbers

counting down from a 2 day window 156-204 12z then 150 -198 18z

5FAD9A35-9B19-4F20-9676-B535AD5C7F10.thumb.jpeg.f8c9c5aa72ee8230f96fd53f4a441737.jpeg56E09FD4-AE65-4B0E-9540-97F8F700EE4F.thumb.jpeg.fbc574cf327aa9246e958bb5becc9eca.jpeg

A direct question. Do you trust the GFS 18z and it's suite? The intruiging thing about this situation is that the crucial changes are in the 5 day timeframe. Does this add credence I wonder?

 

 

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First bit of interest of the season for me tonight 🤨. Inside 10 days and enough GEFS backing to warrant a second look. Probably be gone in the morning but still! 

I wonder if were headed for a mid lat high (maybe UK based?) but lets see what the morning runs bring. As we all know the 00Z tends to be the hangover after the pub run 😉

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3 hours ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Maybe clutching at straws but icon seems a bit better with less of a boxing day storm, Everything also seems a bit further west with higher pressure to our North West Big changes at only day 5 which can only mean positive things given the current state of the models!

12z vs 18z

image.thumb.png.200e772357ca74d964058664a583ed62.pngimage.thumb.png.9776f926479e055a0c8c9b4fedab7387.png

 positive it may be however with such model vulnerable vulnerability I wouldn’t take even five days as gospel at this moment in time

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Just shows you that currently FL is about 120 hours,hope the models firm up to a colder outlook, the next 24 hours or so.

Some big early morning runs coming up.

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24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Just shows you that currently FL is about 120 hours,hope the models firm up to a colder outlook, the next 24 hours or so.

Some big early morning runs coming up.

what time do the GFS Oz etc come out ?tia

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14 minutes ago, swfc said:

what time do the GFS Oz etc come out ?tia

About 350am and ukmet about the same time ,icon is about 3 15 am I think,can we have a decent morning set,for a change,they been poor recently apart from ukmo.

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12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

About 350am and ukmet about the same time ,icon is about 3 15 am I think,can we have a decent morning set,for a change,they been poor recently apart from ukmo.

Thanks.imo I think any heighths will be over the UK threw xmas.cant see an easterly but staying seasonal and mostly dry.beyond that who knows😁

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Morning-

Im up & off doing some work this morning & ive got up with a positive vibe.

The 18z + MEAN + ICON / JMA & 18z ECM were all much better in a swing towards cold however we need to continue that process today - With such a relative short window here a full swing to cold will unlikely then swing back to mild as the transition is at 96-120.

Thanks

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